Go Kart Mozart

51 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Feb 2013?

Yes, that's the exception, but I am hard pressed to think of another B that didn't give more to my west and east.  Not to say that As can't screw us too, but I think that is more of a stochastic thing, while the B screwage has a physical explanation (at least in  my mind).

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This, along with occlusion, is one of the reasons I hate Miller A systems....sure, Miller B can hug/cut or occlude...but there is more time for unfavorable developments when they cover that much more ground. Nothing like having all of those nascent mechanics explode into existence right underneath Long Island...much more margin for error.

I get that having the N stream phase in too aggressively is the issue here, but just saying....less time to do that if it had developed later.

Funny, but Miller Bs are a problem down here.  The new surface low bombs at the baroclinic boundary that is the coast and forms the first big def band over NJ into the HV.  That band decays while a triple point forms, the new low takes over further east, and a new band forms for you guys.  Our best storms seem to be lucky As that that track just inside the BM.

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Almost looks like the 12/5-6/81 storm that backed it from the east. 

I recall 81 as a clipper that went off the VA capes, then hooked back NW.  Next weeks depiction comes from the middle of the freaking ocean.  Somehow, seems vaguely unlikely.

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s for this Friday…I thought the system was for later than that? 

Yes, I posted on two different subjects...the warmth in the near future and the storm later on.  I should be more focused.

What a remarkable 850 map.  A few days later the cold really pounds in, but the low leapfrogs up the coast too quickly.  Get rid of the leapfrog crap, and we might have something.

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…now that’s a man high.   So it’s providing low level cold…so does that result in any mixed precip for us inland folks? 

Not really showing that yet, but I like that it gets colder and colder throughout the event.  We track for now.

51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what’s this High…?  Before or after this supposed storm? 

Reaches 1054.  This may be the slow mover Ray was lamenting...coastal flooding issues?

4 hours ago, weathafella said:

I think they average 341 inches/year.

Do they get the most sea-level snow on earth?

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 I want to wash my hands my face, my hair in Snow …

 

Is she drinking a glass of milk?

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s hope this is wrong 

https://x.com/commoditywx/status/1734275231361954045?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

Let's hope it's too slow with timing....but that is one hell of a result!

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

No reason to post hour 384 on any model.  I think the models should just go out to 240.

What are you talking about?  I posted the 15 day ensemble mean to counter your statement:

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Long range on the gfs and Euro looks horrendous. 

Not ideal, but I've seen worse:

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

nBiggest mistakes a forecaster can make is observing what is actually happening and thinking A + B doesn’t equal C

https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1733920472092356620?s=46&t=m4Eqkekadb-JCXTm7k-Txg

It's funny, but that progression shows a gradually retrograding jet in the Pac, which would lead to an Aleutian low rather than a GOA low.  Huge difference in sensible Wx here.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It’s just mentality deranged from childhood fairytale stories of Santa recruiting Rudolph to guide the sleigh through snow and fog. 

44 minutes ago, cut said:

Nashua Knolls

A quick edit, cut!

2 hours ago, leo2000 said:

I am going to need a big bottle of Jack Daniel's to get through another December like this. Seems like a gruesome ugly cycle to have this same old ugly pacific pattern everytime right before the holidays. We have been going through this for 5 years now. 

Leo has the best avatar (sub-avatar?) on the forum.

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Road trip to new Rochelle?

Ha, my youngest is at Pace in Pleasantville, maybe I should cash in on that apartment we are paying for!

FWIW, I started a thread for Sunday/Monday.

This map depicts Poundtown from Dover, DE to Springfield and points north, with a well targeted dry slot for me.  Of course this is right.

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z NAM went east again....gets western SNE into accumulating snow.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGdoing naked snow angels while me and Ray get rained on?

For me?  That NAM solution is about as likely as a 400lb escaped Sterling CT sow flying out of my ass (ginny will know what that means).

That 850 line is oh so close!

Was 97-98 the super el nino year?  I remember BM bombs....and it wasn't even close to snow.

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If they ever wanted to do rewrites from our era .. it would be along the lines of Record snow melts, screamers, green Christmases , high dews, bikes and roller skates and the Grinch wearing shorts and a tee 

Yes. Dickens might have written something like this:  "It was the best of climes, it was the worst of climes..."

Academic question - what the hell am I looking at here?  Saturation below 700 and above 500, but in between, what is that?

Merry Christmas table setter?  Nothing like a 582 NAO block