Go Kart Mozart
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Everything posted by Go Kart Mozart
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So Scooter can also be called, "Son of Norlun"?
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If you get a north wind with the 510dm lobe overhead, you can do quite well. No low level inversion layer.
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James, the one thing I will say is that the Cape looks good for OES on Thursday and Friday. That lobe coming over your head is at 510dm, with a good northerly fetch, -20 at h850. Please give us the full analysis.
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Then
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Is that from last night?
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Geez, I was thumbing through KU Volume I today....and that's a spitting image of March 1958. At the surface, that one was a primary over OH, redeveloping near Norfolk. The end result was not pretty for most of NE. 30"+ over SEPA and NEMD. Good hit in Poconos, with another max near Fitchburg. Also, I saw where K&U like the NAO block on the eastern shore of Greenland, not the Davis straight area.
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0z NAM. lol at the Mid-Atlantic
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After looking at the 12z GFS...it's on to February. Edit, it's on to Tuesday, lol.
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As a blockbuster, sure. But we can move the blues 75 miles in four days and get the season's second best event for the south coast.
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I am not giving up until 12z Monday. The 6z gfs has the Tuesday POS some 8-12mb weaker as it approaches the Azores than what was shown at 0z. Unfortunately upstream took a small step in the wrong direction. The vertical stacking my be too much to overcome in any case...but we've seen late moves to the north before.
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The other problem is that the storm stacks vertically early and big. It would need to come very close to hit SNE...maybe north of Cape May.
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18mb drop from 108hr to 114
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Yup. Better upstream, worse downstream. I am afraid Tuesday's POS isn't helping matters.
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GFS better through 90hrs. Sharper trof going neggy faster.
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Any news from the 18z Euro?
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For Thursday, we want the Rockies ridge to be taller, which needs a deeper trough west of California, which is influenced by the annoying meso-low near Kodiak Island, which is affected by the low coming off of Siberia...it's an endless chain! If we can finesse just one variable in the equation...anyway, it's a real long shot, I will toss in the towel if 0z Monday doesn't show big improvements.
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Lots of small steps in the wrong direction for Thursday.
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ICON a tad better for Thursday. Sharper trough, more interaction with the Ontario lobe.
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I like the second one too. Sharper trough out west with more downstream ridging....84 hr NAM, what can go wrong? The 18z GFS is going to have a huge viewing audience.
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Can someone post this map with a larger image? Also, you can get this on TT?
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We can, we will. Big storms almost always come further north than modeled at this time range.
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A few ticks south for the 28th and Bermuda is in the game.
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Hang in there on that one. Lots of time for changes.
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Weeklies seem to be about as useful as tarot cards and chicken bones.
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Yup. Eight days, and the big ones always nudge north with time.
