Avdave

4 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It only took three days to turn it into wintertime fun  

If we accumulate 25.9" by Jan 17, Ill pull an Antonio Brown down I 40 in Rush hour

4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Yeah I just wanted to be able to get some good shots but it wasn't meant to be. We will see on the token flakes.

With the way last winter was here, Ill take some flakes falling from the sky. Sadly Ill probably miss it as Ill be at work in the airport. 

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I myself enjoy the snow maps, but...not very helpful other than for trends 

 

 

The bottom map is what will happen. Yes peeps in Virginia from Richmond to Roanoke and Charlottesville will do well. But Im keeping my expectation in check with some wet snowflakes mixed in with the rain and maybe a very brief period of snow.   Im not even concerned about accumulation here it would just be nice to see some fall. 

Good luck to you guys in the Mtns. You should get a good clobbering out of this. Maybe blizzard like conditions in the higher elevations. Take pics for piedmont peeps 

From RAL:

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 422 AM Saturday...

During the day Sunday the front will move from approximately the
foothills of NC eastward to roughly the I-95 corridor by late
afternoon before the front stalls.  This front will be accompanied
by a band of showers and tstms that will be leftover from upstream
activity the day before.  As typical this time of year, instability
will be marginal for svr weather; however deep layer wind shear will
be abundant.  Thus well have to closely watch temperature trends
during the daytime Sunday and to what extent heating will contribute
to instability.  In any event, given the low end potential for svr
convection, much of southern and southeast portions of central North
Carolina are highlighted as marginal in the SWODY2.

By late in the day Sunday the southern portion of the upper trof
will attempt to close off while gradually pivoting to negative tilt
by Sunday night. Vigorous forcing for ascent ahead of this
negatively tilting upper trof, by way of phasing of the northern
stream right entrance region coupled with the southern stream left
exit region of the upr jets, the GFS and European models both show
surface low pressure development along the southern end of the front
over eastern or southeastern Georgia Sunday night. Should this
indeed happen, the large scale upward forcing assoc with the surface
low lifting NE across the coastal plain of the Carolinas coupled
with the abundant moisture advection from the Atlantic could support
a heavy rain event across parts of central North Carolina late
Sunday and Sunday night. In fact, some localized flooding of poor
drainage areas looks like a possibility Sunday night despite current
drought situation.  In addition, a svr convection potential will
exist east and southeast of the surface low track and in conjunction
with the warm sector Sunday and Sunday night, thus we`ll have to
closely watch that track.

As if these elements werent enough, as the low exits to our east
and cold air wraps around from the north, BL temps will rapidly
fall, and both the GFS and European suggest that the rain may
briefly mix with some wet snow mainly along and north of the highway
64 corridor during the 9Z to 15Z time frame on Monday morning. Given
the short duration of this wintry mix event, the antecedent warm
surface conditions, and given the fact that the boundary layer
temperatures will be marginally cold for wintry precip anyway, we
believe that any wet snow that falls will have very little if any
impact Monday morning.

Its worth noting that the NAM is much more progressive with both
the surface front during the day Sunday and subsequent low pressure
development along it. In fact, its low pressure development along
the front doesnt happen until the system is well to our east, thus
resulting in a non-event for us for our area Sunday night.
Unfortunately however, that model solution is an outlier among the
guidance envelope.

In terms of temps Sunday and Sunday night, high temps on Sunday of
course will be dependent on cloud coverage and precip timing and
placement. But right now it looks like most of central NC should see
high temp readings from the upper 60s across the Triad to mid 70s
across our southeast zones.  Lows Sunday night will happen just
before sunrise Monday morning behind the departing cold front.

4 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

 Happy New Year!

2021 weather stats from my front lawn.

Calendar year 2021 statistics:

Mean Temp:  61.5f (+2.3f)
-----------------------------------------

Max Temp: 96.7f
Mean Max:  72.0f
-----------------------------------------

Min Temp:  21.3f ( Thats not very cold… :0 )
Mean Min:  51f
------------------------------------------

Rainfall:  42.70” (-5.34”) 
Snowfall:  0.19” 

(0.19” 2019/20 season)

Seanus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

0.13” last couple days brings us to 2.58” for the month. AC is officially on, house temp up to 73 yesterday (I try to keep closer to 70). Ridiculous 

1.47 MTD

50.30 YTD

Past system .09"

AC has been humming since we got back from SC Wednesday PM.  Dews in the mid 60s, ugh. 

4 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

As we close out the dumpster fire that is 2021 and welcome the magickal energy that is 2022, I just would like to say thank you to the se crew for all the amazing memories over the past two decades, and all the future memories that haven't happened yet      Whether you know it or not, you all have helped me through some pretty rough times and laughed with me (and sometimes at me  ) through the great times. I wouldn't trade this group of awesome people for anything and my wish for each of you in 2022 is winter madness with feet of frozen gold, a spring filled with blooming flowers and rain to keep the pollen away, a summer that brings perfect beach weather without the need of a hatchet to slice through the humidity along with good old fashion thunder boomers that end with hours of anvil crawlers to watch as you sit on the deck, and a fall that brings endless color and crisp air as football season begins  

HAPPY NEW YEAR SE CREW!! 

It more like THANK YOU for what you do dealing with some PITA posters not in just this region but overall on the board. You and the Mods have a thankless job and you cant win with some of the posters.  We are always here for you and yes we have had some great and fun times.  I wish you a very happy , healthy and prosperous New Year. 

6 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Still a flizzard alert for some  

That looks about right. I get 20 glakes while Rocky Mount gets a plowable event 

On 12/26/2021 at 7:55 PM, jburns said:

You’ve been at the airport too much.

LOL  Smart ass.   You know when I typed it I knew it was wrong but my mind couldnt get the right spelling so I said eff it

On 12/26/2021 at 5:51 PM, NorthHillsWx said:

AC in late December… yuck! We turned off our heat yesterday. I just landed in Louisiana visiting family and can say it is summer-like with humidity here. Looks like we’ll be into the 80’s here next couple days

ugh, I cant imagine how it is down there. Imn in charleston, sc snd got to 78* today with a dewpoint in the low to mid 60s.  It was kinda gross outside

Got a high of 76* here today      We are still down an inch and a third below normal of precip for the year too

Yay for turning on the AC in December. This just plane sucks.  My palms are loving it though

74 here currently.  AC has been turned on. This sucks 

Merry Tropical Christmas to all 

Finished with .22" here.     1.38" MTD

Blah.  Now comes the warmth

High of 40* after a morning low of 31

So for the day with rainfall, we are sitting at .16"

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What a great overachiever here today. Still raining and we’re over 1” for the event. Doubt we’ll get too much more but this was the rainfall we needed. Also, what an incredible temp drop. It has now dropped more than 20 degrees from the early morning high, now sitting a 42.7

Edit: Finished with 1.04” for the event and that puts us at 2.01” MTD 

Wow, you cleaned up nicely over there. Nice!!

After a high of 65* at 12:01am we are now at our low of 39* for the day so far. 

Picked up .65" today and now at a whopping 1.15" MTD

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm sad you had to cancel    For sure the pups will be glad to go hiking instead of relaxing at their B&B  

I'm opening up a map of about a 100 mile radius, closing my eyes and letting the curser land wherever and that's where I will go. 

Thanks. Yeah they will be happy wherever we go.   I love your idea of the map and choosing a random location to go explore, that will be so much fun

I know its not here in the SE, but Ft Lee, NJ. WOW.  Cant even see the GW Bridge with that super dense fog there now

2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

That is exactly what I am doing    It will be quiet anyplace I decide to go, so now to figure out where I want to explore. I'd much rather have a snow filled landscape, but a perfect 70 degree day is a good consolation any time of the year 

Now that we arent going away, Im thinking somewhere J and I can take the dogs for a nice hike on xmas day

Got to 73* here after a low of 56*

RDU broke a 100 year old record today as well getting to 73*. The old record was 72*

Nice!! you doubled almost what I got.  Finished with .37" here

MTD: .50"

Down to 36* already here though which is nice.  Time to breakout the Hawaiian Tropic this week as we get too warm and of course more dry

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

As expected the heaviest rain held south and east of here. Only picked up 0.30” of much-needed rain. Sharp cutoff north of here so I’ll take what we got but need every drop from here on out this month and beyond 

Not bad with a third of an inch there. 

Only got .12" here. Maybe something more substantial on Sat PM

12 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Euro wins… strung out mess tomorrow. What looked like a decent rain now looks to be very light

Cant say Im surprised. Its just the way it has gone here of late.   Cant catch a break.  Maybe Saturday a better chance?

Whos going to win this week. The GFS or Euro. Last time I looked they were different scenarios.