TWCCraig

12z Euro for Monday 2pm temps and wind. Has sea breeze but not as dramatically cool

100 to ISP on the 12z GFS on Tuesday. Monday will have a sea breeze. Tuesday is the only real chance at 100

The NAM always overdoes the seabreeze, I would never use that. Also, as someone who lives out here, I never use raw numbers off of a global model for temps especially this time of year, you'll never be right. You think today's Euro was correct with today's forecast out here? Today's 12z Euro had a high of 79 for Shirley and 80 for ISP for today, Shirley hit 84 and ISP hit 85 officially. Today's 18z GFS never had Westhampton over 80, all wrong. GFS doesn't even have the resolution to "see" Westhampton properly if you're looking at maps I prefer to use hi-res models in the short term, you get a much better idea of the kind of temperature gradient to expect and wind direction. I love the GEM-LAM (HRDPS) for this although it can be a little too warm sometimes. HRRR isn't bad either, but the NAM is way too cool most of the time.

Yea I can recall many times in the past where it's 90+ degrees with a southerly wind off the water in June, and that's in modest heat waves

We've done it plenty of times here in June, even May it's possible. NAM only goes out 84 hours to Tuesday 2am so I'm not sure how you can see Tuesday afternoon

63 south of ISP and the Great South Bay is close to 70. I'm pretty close to the water, cooler than most and I'm at 81 right now with a sea breeze, so the sea breeze only does so much. The winds Monday and Tuesday look light and you have a bit more solar insolation around the solstice than you do a month from now. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025

Sea breeze for Monday was sniffed out over the past couple of days. The hottest day will be Tuesday, looks like it will start off with offshore flow then a sea breeze develops, for coastal locations at least. Still will be brutal even with the sea breeze. I can see this being similar to 7/22/2011 where ISP hit 100 before the sea breeze, but still had temps in the mid to upper 90's after the sea breeze. I don't think dew points will be as high as they were in 2011. Also possible that we fall just short of 100 ISP on 7/22/2011:

Probably gusted no more than 30mph here with 0.09" of rain so far. Fell apart pretty fast as it headed east

83/75 Actually hit 84 before 10am when there was more of a westerly wind

Only 75/70 (Temp/Dew point) here on the south shore with full sun. Maxed at 79 around 2pm with 0.26" of rain this morning

GFS still cool for Sunday while the Euro roasts us with offshore flow. Sunday may be hotter than Monday for those of us right on the coast

Models still all over the place. GFS is pretty cool for Sunday with low to mid 80's, rains Sunday AM and clouds stick around; while the 18z Euro is now roasting hot Sunday with good offshore flow and temps in the mid 90's. Euro is still very hot Monday but places right along the coast have a sea breeze and therefore cooler. GFS has a good sea breeze for most on Monday, about 10 degrees cooler than the Euro.

Too far out to know exacts but the latest GFS has more onshore flow than the Euro next week, so it has lower temps (mid to upper 90's) with higher humidity. Unfortunately it's been the theme of a lot of our heat waves in recent times

Sea breeze boundary is visible on KOKX radar, slicing through LI southwest to northeast. Dew points have gone back up at places like ISP thanks to the sea breeze. The initial westerly wind this morning that brought in some drier air has subsided

I saw lots of white oak along Nicolls road (CR-97) refoliating this week after being completely eaten bare by gypsy moth caterpillars

That's probably happening naturally already. Boreal forest being replaced by deciduous forest. These high latitudes are warming faster than other places on the planet and if rainfall doesn't increase as well you get fires. Pine, fir, and spruce burn very easily. I don't know if boreal forests are expanding northward as fast as were losing them fires, drought etc.

ISP had a trace of precip over the 5/10-5/11th weekend and 0.01" on 5/17-5/18. So those weekends dont count as dry even though they were, at least at Islip. Not surprised by upstate though. But it has been very rainy and dreary over the past month, were paying for last fall

Lawns were pretty brown last fall, they didn't green up until December ironically. It wasn't long lasting, but last fall was the driest stretch of weather this region has ever seen

Not as much as the other day thankfully. Some of it is near surface

Weatherbell has a great color scheme. Only downsides are there's no 32°F isotherm and the temperature anomaly maps will make you think -4°F is just as significant +9°F. They're skewed to make below average temps look even more below average. Pivotal is hilarious though, making 60 degrees look like it's 90 lol

The smoke put a damper on temps out here, thankfully it's clearing out now. High of only 75 at ISP so far, actually cooler than yesterday's high of 78.

Pretty smoky sunrise this morning. I noticed temps were a little slower to rise this morning than usual due to the smoke. Lowest temp this morning came after 6am, despite the sun being up for over 40 minutes

It shouldn't. I wonder if people are even aware of it though. It should be mentioned in forecasts but most of the time it gets disregarded as just "haze" which isn't truly accurate. It's a shame that most outlets don't even mention the smoke at all. People who use weather apps probably think tomorrow will be mostly sunny when it'll probably be more gray with all the smoke. I can see the majority of this upcoming week being ruined with smoke yet the forecasts will have people expecting blue skies

Different winds at different heights. The smoke is mostly elevated, between 300-400mb

Beautiful out, for now. Little chilly for June but I'd take it over swamp weather. These clear blue skies won't last long unfortunately. Some models have that band of smoke moving north into our area by the afternoon