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Heisy

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Everything posted by Heisy

  1. Heisy
    Battleboro VT a good spot to chase? My buddy driving through MA right now trying to pick a spot…. Here is 3km nam thru 33 .
  2. Heisy
    Euro was def a close call. If the main wave was stronger early on it probably would have been a big NW hit at least. Can see similar evolution on control, but with a stronger short wave. Setup still there. We’ll see what happens .
  3. Heisy
    Damn if I knew this I’d be on my way as well haha .
  4. Heisy
    One thing to keep an eye on during 12z runs today is to see if we can get that blocking south of Greenland to improve. 6z GFS looked decent there I think that would help keep lower heights under it to where we need it. 6z eps/control trended that way. Hopefully it can force any shortwaves south of it to strengthen confluence ahead of any wave. .
  5. Heisy
    This next potential event/pattern look El Niño like to you or any one else? Looks like a pure STJ induced event .
  6. Heisy
    Think euro is supposed to get a big upgrade again soon from what I heard on another forum .
  7. Heisy
    Wow what a trend at this range… .
  8. Heisy
    This event is one of the worst modeled events I’ve ever seen at this range. All the models picked up on the storm threat of course, but the run to run changes are crazy… this is the 6z euro vs 00z just 2 days out! What are your thoughts on the day 8-10 threat? .
  9. Heisy
    Where you located? I’m unable to chase this one, hate chasing elevation dependent events anyway, but still jealous AF! For those depressed this morning farther SE there is a signal around day 8-10! Lol .
  10. Heisy
    More of a euro look but slightly better than previous runs. Hopefully we get N/S to respond to that -epo ridge that shows up. Whatever we can do to keep confluence. Speed up the pac wave. Whatever it takes .
  11. Heisy
    Enjoy it up there guys I’ll be watching from a far. There is some hope for another coastal on the day 8-10 range! .
  12. Heisy
    Wave takes too long to come east on euro, but slight better step vs 12z. .
  13. Heisy
    Euro taking a step towards the gfs etc. check out this ridge in epo land, that could help force cold air SE for any pac wave. Euro a little more sloppy with the shortwave, but setup there .
  14. Heisy
    Both gfs and cmc improved for our potential even day 9-10. Better N/S push ahead of the low .
  15. Heisy
    Dry slot before the secondary takes over. Brutal .
  16. Heisy
    Yea I just added that last sentence to not seem as pessimistic as I actually am. In all reality I’m over the cliff. I’m from Bensalem few miles NE of Philly…. Can see the bad trend with confluence on the ensemble as well. .
  17. Heisy
    Not sure how many people know this, but the NAM was supposed to be retired by now. There’s a model that’s already running that’s supposed to be it’s replacement. Forget what it’s called but I’ll try to find its forecast through our Philly met. for this storm and post it. I’m not going to be able to chase this one, so that’s a full year without seeing 1 inch of snow for me. Going to be a long summer. Good luck .
  18. Heisy
    This is most likely the last reasonable chance at anything, unfortunately today went the wrong way. Long way to go though .
  19. Heisy
    This is why it went farther Nw, decreased confluence because NS didn’t phase with the tpv in SE Canada. Same crap euro did (though not nearly as bad, but still negative change) Run to run change…. .
  20. Heisy
    Confluence pattern got worst just like the OP euro. 2023 things. I couldn’t chase either of the Buffalo events this year and it looks like I won’t be able to get up to W MA or Catskills for tomorrow. This has been the worst winter of my life. I think 2001-02 actually had accumulating snow here. Hopefully 23-24 has an Early December event like 02-03 had heh. .
  21. Heisy
    We getting a solid STJ vort look, not overly strong, problem was the N/S this run .
  22. Heisy
    Not getting right confluence pattern from N/S this run…. .
  23. Heisy
    Wow that’s actually a damn good setup, only 240+ hours away! .
  24. Heisy
    There is a little signal on 18z GEFS for 22-24th, couple decent hits around the region .
  25. Heisy
    Yea that pac wave speeding up would help, keep things tighter. I guess I meant there’s more confluent flow near us for the initial wave. We’ll see what happens .
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