IntenseBlizzard2014

5 hours ago, CIK62 said:

EURO WEEKLIES are only BN till Dec. 17, then AN through Jan. 06--- the end of the run.        The CFS sub-weeklies keep it cold till New Years.    Take your pick.

The EURO Weeklies seem more realistic.

3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Warmer conditions in the eastern US. 

Oh. Okay. Yeah, I agree. I wish I knew how to explain why.

5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

I don't think it's coming, the trend since July has been greater than El Nino. 

Exactly what's not coming?

15 minutes ago, uncle W said:

when the AO NAO get quite negative in November stronger blocks usually come in December...Boston should see 35" by mid January with this pattern...

I agree with this. I can't wait until I become a Meteorologist. Then I can have proper insights into this discussion.

Considering that the layers from 700 mB to 1000 mB won't be perfectly aligned. I'd say that the snowfall ratios will be hovering around 8:1 for the entire event. Mainly for the Coastal Plain. 

4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Glenn schwartz Winter outlook.   Going warm an little snow. No big storms at all

 

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-21st-Annual-Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Warmer-Air-Less-Snow-456201723.html

 

This is understandable. If we get a typical Central Based/-QBO/-PDO. Then this forecast can verify quite easily.

1 minute ago, nesussxwx said:

Yes. According to this map at least.

That's great. Thank you. 

Does Southern Westchester County count as the Lower Hudson Valley?

Can we just lock this in now please?  kthx

 

usPrecSeaInd3.gif

Yes please. This will be very welcomed. 

Thanks to the stubborn Upper Level Ridge NW of Hawaii, there won't be any canes nearing Central/Southern Cali. It looks like Odile is going to be the closest to the heart of the drought areas without actually putting any meaningful dent into the drought.   

EWR: 10

NYC : 8

LGA : 8

JFK :  7

Based on the latest JMA, it is showing below average temperature departures for 60% of the Eastern US for JJA. El Ninos produce wetter conditions (ie September 1982) for a large chuck of the US. Mainly at Southern California through Texas and into the Southeast. At times, there are troughs that swing through the NE and we get strong LPs producing wetter conditions for the Northeast and Northern Mid Atlantic. So those of you on this topic, beware because if you are planning to go to the beach it won't be good. This Summer could challenge 2009 in terms of temperatures, but the rainfall won't be overbearing like 2009. A weaker Nino this time around will have lesser effects, so a summer like 2009 will be close, but there may be a few more 90s This Summer Vs. 2009. The central theme for this summer is Cool and Dry/Wet and Hot/Dry with Afternoon Thunderstorms (Possibly Severe). 

6 days of 90s in 5 days would probably set some sort of record.

A Space/Time record. lol