nycwinter

in late august 1992 we did not have our first named storm of the season until andrew came along .. it only takes one huge storm to make a season..

winds down to 125 mph..

they could have done just that....

isolated flood damage? that will be the under statement of the year.. 3 to 5 inches of rain earlier this year in a short period of time in honolulu wreaked havoc... imagine when this storm is over how much rain will fall on the city...

lane holding it's own or looking better on infrared...

track was wrong even before lane central the central pacific it finally caved to most other guidance..

the gfs the best tropical model on lane the worst the euro.. what a embarrassment for the euro so out of touch with reality on hurricane lane..

BULLETIN Hurricane Lane Advisory Number 34 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP142018 500 PM HST Wed Aug 22 2018 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE LANE TRACKING NORTHWEST AND ON COURSE TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 156.5W ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Watch has been changed to a Hurricane Warning for the island of Oahu.

but sandy was the largest ever tropical cyclone in the atlantic. tropical force winds extended 900 miles this storm tropical force winds extend out less than 200 miles...

opinions are not fact...

looks like lane has made that turn to the northwest...

you can see it is fighting shear..

looks like lane might be intensifying again against all odds..

barrow never actually has summer weather...

well the gfs many days ago showed the possibility of lane affecting the islands in a direct way while the euro was following hector track way out to sea...

the storm does not look as good as it did a few hours ago on infrared...

..NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LANE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate that Lane has continued to intensify this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h), making Lane an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane. A special advisory will be issued within the hour. SUMMARY OF 620 PM HST...0420 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.0W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES

they will have to revise the strength of this storm to a cat 5 in the future..after reviewing all the information..

i;m sure they do their best but the cphc is clearly inferior to the nhc...

but a cat 5 for historical reasons..

pressure down to 929 mb but kept the winds at 155...

it would be a shame if a cat 5 storm never gets called that..

early this year in honolulu they had 3-5 inches of rain in a 1-2 hour period .. producing massive flooding...

After this point, the track and intensity forecast become increasingly uncertain, as a bulk of the model guidance is depicting interaction between Lane and the terrain of the islands. This interaction then leads to a weakened Lane increasingly being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated track forecast is essentially an update of the previous official forecast, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus HCCA.