jojo762

06Z GFS looks quite a bit better... And more comparable to the Euro, it also is a bit stronger with the S/W with winds at H5 at 50-60kt. VBV is more of an issue further north in Nebraska on the GFS than it is in KS/OK, but with southward extent the cap also gets stronger... Forecast soundings at hr 114 (00Z/ June 15) are very impressive along much of the dryline, with extreme instability, strong 0-6KM SHR of 40-55kt, and impressive 0-3KM SHR of ~30kt/0-3KM SRH of 200-300m2/s2....Euro has VBV, but it's only above 500mb, so maybe it is not as much of an issue...hopefully. Will be interesting to watch this evolve.

The UNR LSR indicates that 8 inches of hail had accumulated. Holy cow. 0416 PM HAIL 3 S KEYSTONE 43.85N 103.42W 05/20/2016 E1.75 INCH CUSTER SD LAW ENFORCEMENT 8 INCHES OF HAIL ACCUMULATED. MOTORISTS STRANDED ON IRON MOUNTAIN ROAD. SNOW PLOWS HAVE BEEN CALLED OUT TO CLEAR ROADS.

DDC AFD from this afternoon is pretty optimisitc about next week/this weekend, they appear to favor the ECMWF quite a bit...

yeah. some cluster just northwest of it. lol

22 0-3KM EHI... 22 STP. One of the craziest soundings i've ever seen, even from the 4NAM. This obviously won't happen, but its hilarious to look at.

Perhaps the best thing about the 12Z GFS was that the LLVL wind field is pretty impressive as early as 18Z, and by 00Z it is even better... Not liking the look it has had for several runs including 12Z of keeping lingering convection across much of the warm sector. Oddly, it appears to have little to no effect on instability or moisture. Still very little model consistency though in where the best threat area would be.

While there are still many things to work out, such as moisture quality, timing, etc, late this weekend/early next week continues to look interesting basing purely off of pattern recognition. Something positive is that both the GFS and Euro have started trending toward a less amplified trough (which would result in less meridonial flow) than what they showed a few days ago...That'll all come down to how far east exactly is the EC trough though.

I know that. I was talking about since they updated the Day 4-8. Like I said, I do not think I have seen a 30% since they made it to where there are two probability-categories in D4-8 (15%/30%).

So they did go with the 30% contour. I think since they updated the D4-8 to include two probability contours, this might be the first 30%?

GFS also hints at some other potentially big things coming in early May too. Hmm...

ah okay, didn't know. Not really well versed in model-tendencies. So that ridiculous cap doesn't really exist. Thanks!

Yeah. This 00Z run of the GFS is the best one yet as far as the parameterized environment goes--pretty insane across the board with everything, nuts to see widespread 6+ 0-1KM EHI's, and widespread 500+ 0-3K SRH. Still feel the trough is a bit too slow tho, and there is a pretty substantial amount of CIN. It's funny because last year, we could hardly get any events with an EML to hold things off, then this year on the first possible big event, we get a big time cap. But feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on those.

umm I think so... I don't really remember, someone else in here will know. He updated the number today to a 7. Meanwhile Dr. forbes currently has his TorCon at 3.

Seems like both major models are in pretty good agreement. Wouldn't be surprised for the SPC to go 30% tomorrow, especially if it is Broyles issuing the outlook. Unless something changes dramatically in the modeling.

Can't get much better really. All are historic plains days that produced both huge quantities of tornadoes, and several devastating tornadoes. Haysville/OKC/Chickasha/ Manchester, etc.

How's the euro look compared to the GFS?

Mike Morgan from KFOR already giving a 6 of 10 on the tornado threat for Tuesday. Lol

There we go, SPC pulled the trigger for D7, Tuesday (4/26), mentioning "A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE."

FWIW, OUN already mentioning possibility of strong/severe thunderstorms in their "Next Seven Days" graphic for Sunday/Monday (4/24,4/25). DDC also mentioning possibility of severe wx in their AFD-- pretty rare for WFOs to mention severe that far out.

Agreed... Not to be overly specific given that it is still a week away, but next weekend-- more so sunday than saturday-- has looked pretty interesting for several days now on the GFS across the Central/Southern Plains.

Looks very boring for a while... Of course that could change in a jiffy.

The environment next tuesday across the Eastern plains and Arklatex, into missouri, as depicted on the last few renditions of the GFS is pretty incredible. As far as thermodynamics go, MUCAPE values shoot up to 2000-3500+J/KG, however, there does not appear to be much turning with height, shear wise, but decent speed shear. Biggest question with this would be the strongly veered low level flow, and the fact that the CF does not appear to come through until late tuesday night, before then, there appears to be an ill defined warm front across TX/OK, as well as a somewhat better defined dryline. Lots to be figured out between now and then though, at least is something worth watching.

Man that Groundhog day storm really wipes out the gulf for a while for DP's and high-ThetaE air.

At least as of right now... A Seemingly disappointing period is coming mid-week for the central plains and Mid-west. Very rare to get a 50-70kt H5 trough to dig this far south in late summer... Doesn't seem to render much in the way of severe weather of severe weather though.. Likely from lack of instability due to cloud cover.

That giant supercell west of SLN has just sat there for over an hour despite moving "30mph" to the northeast according to the warning.