jojo762

Not too surprising... Basically the only storm thus far in that "sweet spot" for today that appears to have became well rooted to the boundary-layer.

Mesoscale Discussion 0495 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma and part of south-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 152032Z - 152200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...A severe-weather watch will likely be issued in the next hour, with tornado being considered as the watch type across northwest OK into part of south-central KS. DISCUSSION...Trends in visible satellite imagery showed sustained and deepening cumulus clouds in vicinity of the dry line from the northeast TX Panhandle through far northwest OK into the adjacent part of south-central KS (including the counties of Kiowa, Clark, and Comanche). Surface temperatures near 80 F and into the 80s in the TX Panhandle have aided in weakening surface-based inhibition, while steepening deep-layer lapse rates and strong instability (up to 2500-3000 J/kg) will support storm development this afternoon in the discussion area. This combined with effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt and strengthening southerly low-level winds into the early evening, enhancing hodograph curvature, will favor supercells with large hail and a tornado threat. ..Peters/Thompson.. 04/15/2017

Today reminds me a lot of 5/23/16 with the supercell that went off near Woodward. Triple point is in the same area, winds will back late... just have to be patient. Too bad tomorrow won't be like 5/24/16... That was a great day.

00Z GFS crashes the front from Wednesday's system much further south than any other run... which keeps the warm front much further south on Friday as well, which would suggest that any higher-end potential would be relegated to NE TX/DFW/red river valley instead of the I-35 corridor. Guess we'll see what the euro says. Still a week or so out, so obviously a lot will change and a lot of details have yet to be decided.

I was shocked honestly given the degree of model spread in location/timing. But outlook area can/will be adjusted as we progress.

SPC already including southern KS and central/eastern OK in a Day-8 outlook for Friday April 21st.

00z and 06z GFS produced some truly ridiculous soundings across Oklahoma on Wednesday... Euro shows something drastically different, so nothing to get too excited about *yet.*

00z GFS continues to be pretty solid for sunday. Hate that the LLJ is WAY veered, but shouldn't matter too much. Solid BL-moisture, strong/moderate instability, strong deep-layer shear, and more-than-sufficient low-level shear. Best thing though? Storms **should** be discrete per model QPF output. Little concerned that BL and low-level moisture may become a bit displaced from the DL though, owing to the veered low-level flow. Also a little concerned about potential VBV issues, in relation to storm mode.

Upper 50s/60 degree DPs starting to nudge their way into southern OK.

SPC upgraded to MDT risk for very large hail in southern Oklahoma. Also now a 10% TOR and 30% hatched wind risk.

Good lord.... I'd have to figure that having six-plus discrete supercells like this would end up leading to a pretty prolific day tomorrow, especially if we pull off getting DPs of 60+.

00Z GFS is incredible for Sunday from southern Oklahoma through central Oklahoma into southern Kansas.

00Z GFS is highly volatile along and east of the I-35 corridor next Thursday in S KS into OK. Both deep-layer and low-level shear are very impressive, instability is more than adequate, and moisture is probably doable, not to mention that it develops numerous what I assume would be discrete supercells along much of the dryline. Not too sold on what the GFS is showing moisture wise though with DPs barely reaching 60 along a lot of the dry line. Guess a lot of that will depend on overnight/previous day moisture transport and how far the boundary earlier in the week dives south. 00Z euro is slower than the GFS and much further west with the DL, but also very impressive from what I can tell... should be a fun ride building up to this... impressive seven days out for a march system.

Excerpt from D4-8 outlook: By Thu/D8, the trough and surface cyclone are forecast to deepen further, and at this point, appear to hold the greatest risk for severe weather. Moisture and instability will be a bit better than on the previous day, and the ECMWF shows a classic deep cyclone favoring all modes of severe weather, including tornadoes. However, predictability is low at D8, especially considering the current level of run-to-run model consistency. Thus, will defer to later outlooks for potential areas, which may eventually include the central and southern Plains, as well as the Missouri and mid Mississippi valleys.

The fact that the GOM will be open (at least the western half), and that we will we have southerly surface flow for days in advance is exciting... Still way too far out to determine very many details of any potential trough(s) though. Not a big fan of that H85 high that the GFS and Euro are showing over the western and north-central GOM though.

GFS seems to like the idea of an interesting system sometime around the 21st through the 23rd time frame across KS and the southern plains. Days of a relatively open GOM before hand would lead me to believe that moisture should not be too much of an issue. Biggest problem will probably be timing, as well as the potential for showers and crapvection in the warm sector.

That supercell W of SGF is incredible. Massive hail core.

For next weekend/ early next week, the GFS has been hinting at some days that would feature some pretty impressive conditions. Multiple waves coming through before the main dish. GFS has very little consistency with the main system, nonetheless timing is looking like it will be an issue. On a positive note, it does not appear that moisture will be an overwhelming issue, as of now.

SPC went with a broad brushed Marginal risk for Monday, which seems like a safe bet right now given wide model variability. Likely will see a slight risk later on. Given the strength of the wind fields, any forecast change in moisture quality/instability can alter the severe storm forecast drastically for any given area.

It's been hinting at this for several days now. Has had trouble figuring out exactly what time period it'll occur though. Think it is safe to bet a strong system will be effecting the plains sometime during mid-march, moisture return/quality of course is the biggest question.

Geez... I'd say so. Too bad it probably will not happen. 12Z NAM is about the best case scenario for severe storms/tornado potential that this system has.

Looks like Tuesday (2/28) is another potential event that fell apart as it got closer, basically nothing now on the models, at least for the plains. This was a theme last year, hopefully it doesn't become one this year.

Tulsa sure seems interested in the time period discussed above... " Our area will remain in the jet stream flow at the base of broad cyclonic flow over the western 2/3rds of the nation going into next week. A pair of fast moving waves embedded in this flow will bring thunderstorm potential to our area. The first wave will affect the region mainly Sunday night. What is different this morning compared to yesterday is the expected northward expansion of the warm sector in the wake of the weekend cold. The latest ECMWF suggests the warm front will lift north to around the Red River, leaving our area in the favorable warm advection/elevated storm region. Our area should be in the warm sector for the second wave Tuesday. The best chances for storms will be with the front late Tuesday/Tuesday night, though some potential exists during the day ahead of the boundary. The setup will be favorable for all modes of severe weather. The forecast could change, considering this is still 6 days out. Stay tuned to the latest updates as we get closer to the event."

Sure don't, at a glance it's a pretty incredible system for this time of year... If we get DPs around 60, somewhere, along with a slower system, things could really start popping with the current progged wind field. Something to watch, at least.

The system late next week (thurs/Friday?) looks to be interesting if we can get some decent moisture return after the Sunday/Monday system...