Radders

So do you buy the faster progression of the southern energy that the GFS/NAM are depicting?

you listening to the radio show too? I just tuned in

Yes, I am

Good run for Eastern parts of SNE - Cape Cod gets crushed.

It is not terrible, and the low bombs out pretty well.. But you are right, no closed H5.. Also, the GFS is so much faster.. So curious to see what the euro does. e.g. is going to be this fast too?

Yeah, it is slipping out to the east a little... Not sure what to make of that... I think that the trough is still a little too broad..

72 looks good - height fields aligning well with the coast.. This thing is coming up the coast for sure.

it phased very well and a bit earlier I think. I think it looks very good so far

Yep, it phased early... Different solution to the Euro, faster and more NAM like, but I think it looks good..

At 63, the southern energy has been absorbed into the Northern Stream and the trough is now starting to dig as the northern energy streams down.. Amazing PNA ridge again here!

yep, the GFS southern energy is moving quite quickly here.. It is definitely ahead of the euro at this time.. Hour 51 shows the vort exiting TX. The northern stream coming down the back side of the trough looks like it is further back, as the ridge is more pronounced..

Edit - The 12Z euro at 66 still had the southern s/w in TX - GFS now has it in MS... Starting to align and interactive the energy dropping down from the north now.

ok... at 42, the GFS is a little faster with the southern S/W than the Euro at 54.. 50 miles or so..

At 30, the GFS is looking a little slower than the NAM, i think the proceeding frames will tell us if it moves the S/W starts to move at a faster rate, like the NAM.

Out to 18 on the GFS.. I am comparing to the 12Z Euro since that is our favorable baseline! No major changes vs. the Euro at 30 thus far

ahh ok.. i subscribed for a whopping 1 day and cancelled and went to storm vista right after. I thought accu would come out quick, but it didn't

Interesting... I was going to check Accu out.. I won't now!!! I can handle just waiting a while and seeing the vorticity maps on EWALL in 24 hour incrementts You can kind of depict what is happening with the energy phasing using the H5 charts anyway.. .Not ideal, but the speed of the update more than makes up for it.

yea, exactly. I was thinking the same thing. I'm not crazy about the 500 mb chart. Vorticity would be much more helpful. Also, I wish there was jet stream level available too.. unless I'm missing it, I don't recall ever seeing it.

No, it doesn't have that either.

I think accuweather may have those charts now though.

awesome! you got SV too. It's pretty cool. I subscribed about a month ago. I wish it wasn't so pricey but I like the simple to use interface and how it updates without having to hit the refresh button like this place.

yeah, it is a bit pricey, but I like the interface, especially the auto update, and the regional views. Wish it had the 500 Vorticity maps for the Euro though!

hey all.. how's it going. I always forget that there's a hudson valley thread and I'm in the hudson valley... i guess.. kind of.. you gonna follow the GFS at the main thread this evening. I'd be happy to give a bit of a play by play in this thread for a change. I've got that sneak peak subscription thingie like Tombo so I can give you a bit of a heads up

That would be awesome tornadojay!! I have SV subscription, so can generally get the frames a few minutes ahead of NCEP. I will happy throw in some thoughts on the GFS (and Euro if people are still up) in this thread too.

You summed up my feelings rather well. As I pointed out above I still have a bit of a bitter taste in my mouth from last winter too. To miss out on so many storms and then have the headaches of no water, heat, or electric for close to four days with the one big storm we got sucked. Not that I expect another storm like that but I think that I'll still feeling funny until I actually measure a decent powdery snowfall IMBY.

Another thing that I didn't like about the Snowicane was that the snow didn't last very long because it was late in the season and warm after the storm. I love a nice snowpack, a deep snowpack would be a bonus, but I can't be picky. I just love when we have a snowcover for weeks on end, which doesn't happen often I realize. I was spoiled during the winter of 93-94. We had a snow pack from mid-late December all the way through March. I measured a 16-18" snowpack on St. Patrick's Day 1994. That was awesome but I don't know when I may see it again in Orange County. We had a great snowpack going in 95-96 too, about 3 feet before the rain storm came throguh in January and wiped it all out. In 95-96 we had more snowfall but 93-94 was a better winter overall for me because the snowpack stayed solid until spring.

I hear you on the snowicane, it was a little bit too intense with the heavy wet snow, falling trees, and exploding transformers. I would just take a nice cold 6-10 inch powder type affair... And then have that topped up every week or two, with incremental snowfalls to keep the base going.

So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

Hey Raddars! I see you were just giving a breakdown on the Euro in the NYC forum. Things obviously have improved in the past 24 hours or so, how's it looking up our way? Sounds like we get in on at least some of the fun now?

Definitely looking much better for our area, but there is a sharp gradient (as you would expect) from Northwest to Southeast... I would say the HV area is running between 1-1.75 running from NW to SE (more SE) (haven't looked that closely) but that is conservative. I think most of us in this thread in the lower/mid hudson valley, are in the 1.5 range.

I will try and post in both forums in future runs, now that we are heading into crunch time!

I think I have around 1.5 - 2 inches here, so those snowfall amounts match well. Nice to see the ground white finally!!!

30 and -SN - Dusting on cars and surfaces here... Maybe we can pick up a light coating overnight?

A beautiful day here today in Poughkeepsie. Temp around 42 and sunny. Nice enough for a stroll around the Vanderbilt Estate grounds.

Nice! Currently 28F.. Awaiting the sleet and freezing rain to arrive later tonight.

15/9 here...

Getting some on/off flurries here - 31.

I wonder if that mammoth band of LES can penetrate the Catskills and make its way into our area later tonight/tomorrow..//

Just counted 17 snowflakes falling from the sky.

Lucky you! I have seen nothing out this way.