Radders

Radders is the euro showing a warm up next week?\

Pattern seems to breakdown and we do get warmer per the Euro.. About 200 hours out, there looks to be another MSP special while the east coast warm sectors and torches with a rainstorm followed by a frontal passage lol!!

So......What are you folks all thinking with regard to the latest storm threat? High risk, high reward setups like this coastal storm threat make me nervous these days, I just can't get the winter of 2009-2010 out of my head, with all the near misses to our south. Seems with this level of historic blocking in place, it just feels like we might get fringed while those to the south (or east) cash in. The next two days of model consensus building are going to be huge, but at this point, I am not ready to get too emotionally involved yet.. The h5 set up really is beautiful though.. The potential is there for sure.

But there is still time for it to trend west!!

Rant over, but seriously, I sort of expected this would happen, so didn't get too excited... I will still keep an eye on it though, you never know what might happen next... In the long term, I would not mind seeing this pattern changing and either seeing some miller b's or some sw flow events where we get some 3-6 or 4-8 type storms.. Fed up with these coastal threats.. I want to leverage my latitude to get in on some of the white stuff!!!

Ratios should be pretty decent out here as well.... 15:1? 18:1?

Yes, i think so... Looks like a warning criteria snow up here...

Given that this is still 100 hours out, I hope we can keep it in this range now... I feel nervous about a further east shift though, but who knows, it could trend west !

No worries! Hope it was useful.. Now we wait for the Ensembles and the 12Z runs... Not a bad solution by any means, and we still have time for it to adjust west.

We are right on the cusp of 0.75.. Southern and Eastern parts of the area are definitely in the 0.75 range.

At 120, I would say we are between 0.5 and 0.75 in the HV, higher number in the range to the south and east, but there is probably more snow to come.

Edit - That i probably about the size of it...

So a moderate hit.. but SNE gets the brunt of this.

114, continuing to deepen and drift NE... Gonna start looking at precip now...

108, continues to bomb... bullseye is SNE but a moderate hit over this way... I think you probably get the picture now.... A little east but not bad at all...Stalled south of CC...starting to occlude

At 96, 988 low 50 mies east of Ocean City MD - Definitely East of 12Z and quicker...

At 102, bombing out south of Long Island, can't even tell the pressure, but crushing SNE with precip thrown back all the way over to the HV..

At 90, 992 low 30 miles or so off the coast of NC... Trough trying to go negative...

84, 1000 low of the coast of SC, a little east of 12Z... The main thing here is that the trough has a broader look to it than 12Z, which was more compact, allowing the low to sit tighter towards the coast... This may go east, not sure.

78, 1008 low over florida, continuing to dig/tilt.. Height fields starting to switch to a more SW/NE orientation to align with the coast.....

72 - 1012 Low starting to form in the GoM, trough starting to tilt, but looks a little broader based than the 12Z

At 60, the s/w is still hanging back, but the theme here is northern energy is far more involved, so the heights are rising in the east more... I think this might be a good thing though.

How is the placement is relation to the sw of the 0z GFS?

similar...but also the same as the 12Z euro.

At 54, slightly further east than the 12Z with the southern s/w, but only a fraction, but far more northern stream interaction.

48, southern stream still identical in speed to 12Z.. Back side of trough is more pronounced, so heights are rising in the east a little more.

Northern stream definitely getting involved more on this run.

At 36, the s/w is in exactly the same position as the 12Z but now it almost closed, so it may be even a little stronger....

I am interested in seeing if the sw speed picks up from its eariler runs

Me too... So far at 24, speed is pretty much identical.

Edit - Same at 30.

18 hours looks the same..

Out to 12, no differences to the 12Z at 24hrs so far.

OK.. Not sure who is around, but the Euro has initialized... Get ready...

Goodnight Tornadojay. Thanks for your posts tonight.. It is nice to have a Met in here to bounce some thoughts off of. The Tombo NYC/PA play by play is cool too, but it can get a bit insane sometimes!

TJay, I am on holidays too now, so I am definitely staying up for the Euro.. I will post in here if you and others are going to be around.

hmmmm.. i don't know... that's a tough one. with the trending and the consistant euro.. i'd lean close to euro, but it's really a tough one..

for some reason the chat thing doesn't work for me in the radio web page, even after signing in

It really is tough to call. If the euro holds again tonight, I will be amazed. But we were in this position last night, so we know it is possible. Perhaps the euro is just handling the various areas of vorticity so much better than than all of the models.