Radders

You get downsloped to hell on any west or northwest winds there. I know having lived in Saugerties for over 30 years. But this is mainly an easterly component so shouldn't be a problem from the Hudson Valley west.

Yes, having lived here for only 1 year I can safely conclude that NW winds are not good for this area at all when it comes to sustaining decent snow intensities. .

I've been watching you and HudsonValley21 post in the NYC threads and sometimes wonder why you guys bother to be perfectly honest. That's not a judgement on the two of you but by how you tend to get treated by some. I've said it before and I'll say it again now, I'm glad we broke out over here

There is definitely a weird dynamic in that sub-forum.. There are some really good posters over there - e.g. earthlight, tombo, tornadojay, am19psu, ALEX etc.. but there are some folks that seem to want to create a hostile atmosphere.. When I compare it to the New England forum dynamic, it is still night and day. The NE guys always seem so laid back and the banter works well over there, without disrupting the good analysis they also tend to come up with.

It's nice to come over here and post outside of the huge "crowds" of people in the NYC forum... I am intrigued by this up coming event, sort of a snow lottery, where there is that outside chance that somebody could get a heavy accumulation, but regardless, it will be nice to see the flakes flying again tomorrow afternoon!!

Here is a post from Don Sutherland from the main forum that I thought I would share.

After having seen the 12z NAM, RGEM, and GFS for the January 7-9, 2011 event, my initial thoughts in terms of snowfall accumulations are:

Albany: 6"-12"

Allentown: 3"-6"

Boston: 2"-4"

Caribou: 4"-8"

Concord: 4"-8"

Danbury: 3"-6"

Harrisburg: 1"-3"

Hartford: 3"-6"

Islip: 2"-4"

New York City: 2"-4"

Newark" 2"-4"

Philadelphia: 1"-3"

Pittsfield: 5"-10"

Poughkeepsie: 5"-10"

Providence: 2"-4"

White Plains: 3"-6"

Details are still subject to possible large changes in some cases depending on later data concerning mesoscale banding potential.

Latest NAM 12Z hammers the Catksills and central NY State.. Less for us lower Hudson Valley folk but still a nice hit.

Happy New Year to All!! Let's see if we can all crank up our snow totals and get in on some decent clippers, overrunning and swf events over these next few months

Where do you work?

As much as temps were warmer than forecasted yesterday morning they are colder than forecasted this morning, currently sitting at 5

Forecasts definitely busted to high last night - I got down to 10 on my weather station, but KPOU airport had a low of 6.. I think i need to move my weather station to a better location, as it consistently reads a little too high.. Too many trees around it.

I just went outside and did some measurements - I averaged 17-18 inches of snow in most locations with drifts much higher. Looks like somebody from Hopewell Junction (2 miles down the road) reported 24 inches.

Here are some obs from NWS Albany:

NEW YORK...ALBANY COUNTY...

RENSSELAERVILLE 12.0 530 AM 12/27 WNYT - DRIFTS TO 4 FEET

LATHAM 11.0 750 AM 12/27

COHOES 10.8 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

ALTAMONT 9.0 528 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

ALBANY 9.0 657 AM 12/27 NWS OFFICE

COLONIE 9.0 642 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

GUILDERLAND 9.0 600 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

SOUTH BERNE 7.5 542 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6...

COLUMBIA COUNTY...

NORTH CHATHAM 20.3 802 AM 12/27 DRIFTS TO 4 FEET

NORTH HILLSDALE 20.0 714 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

KINDERHOOK 19.0 700 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

TAGHKANIC 19.0 800 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

LIVINGSTON 16.5 712 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

CHATHAM CENTER 16.0 532 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

ANCRAMDALE 14.5 601 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

COPAKE 14.0 557 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

...DUTCHESS COUNTY...

PINE PLAINS 25.0 758 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

HOPEWELL JUNCTION 24.0 538 AM 12/27 WEATHERNET6

WINGDALE 15.0 714 AM 12/27 1 TREE DOWN

RED HOOK 15.0 734 AM 12/27

DOVER PLAINS 15.0 809 AM 12/2

Snow continues here, given up trying to measure with this wind... I have 19 inches on my drive but I really don't believe that is the total, seems too much, but who knows...

I just measured in a few places and I am now at around 14.5", but who knows how accurate this is... i will try again in an hour or so, and see if I can get a better idea..

In fairness, a good portion of this has probably already fallen, given that 0z is 7pm EST.

Yes, 2 hours worth, who knows what proportion of that 1 inch or so has already fallen though. I get the impression that the snow ratios are insane.

Don't know if you saw, but the RUC prints another inch + over the hudson valley from 0Z to 12Z

http://www.meteo.psu...UCNE_0z/f12.gif

I continue to get crushed!!! Nearly 11 inches of snow here now. 3 inches in the last hour.

Extrapolate northward and...

The band over me just won't move... If it stays this way, these totals are entirely believable.

I would est. 1-2" in the last hour.

I would say that I have had 2 inches over the last hour or so... Somewhere between 6 and 7 on the ground now, but it is impossible to know for sure due to the drifting and blowing snow. Some really intense snow coming down now.. Just epic.

posted this in the other thread but i'll post it here too

from the SNE thread

New MCD

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY/WRN LONG ISLAND...SRN VT...SWRN NH...WRN MA/CT CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 262326Z - 270530Z BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES RANGING FROM 1-2 IN/HR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WWD OUT OF MA/CT THIS EVENING AND BECOME ALIGNED FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT/SWRN NH. FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 23Z SHOWED A SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED SE OF LONG ISLAND...WHICH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...EVIDENT BY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 MB/HR. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS QUITE INTENSE...AND HAS PROVIDED A FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION NWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES ARE CURRENTLY MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE JERSEY COAST N-NEWD INTO SRN NY...CT...AND MA...WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF AN INTENSE E-NELY LOW-LEVEL JET /WITH WIND SPEEDS AOA 50 KT/ IS FOCUSING A ZONE OF STRONG CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENESIS. DURING THE 00-06Z TIME PERIOD...THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NWD TOWARD CAPE COD. THIS WILL CAUSE THE ZONE OF STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO BECOME RE-ORIENTED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM NRN NJ NWD ACROSS SERN NY AND THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF SRN VT AND SWRN NH. BANDED HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH HRLY RATES OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION...STRONG GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOWEST HALF KM AGL WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...LEADING TO POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..GARNER.. 12/26/2010 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

Awesomeness!!! Thanks for sharing.

Seeing some impressive snow under this band... Closing on 5 inches here.

Snowing sideways right now. Wind howling. My weather station isn't working, but i'd guess 20mph sustained winds with gusts around 30. As nasty as I've seen in my 3 years in POU...During the Snowicane last year, we were in mostly rain out east here in Pleasant Valley.

I grew up in Buffalo, so it's nice to see some WNY wind and snow out this way.

Here, between Hopewell Junction and Wappingers Falls, over the last 30 minutes, the snow has really started to increase in intensity, nice fat dendrites starting to show up, swirling in the wind... If this keeps up, then we could see some decent totals here.

You should get into the awesome snow growth region after 8pm or so huge dendrites incredible banding.

See above post

See above post

RUC has been off past 2-3 hours on LP placement and precip too far east and south

Thanks for the insight!!! I am quietly hopeful that this will not disappoint once we get into the real show from 8-9pm onwards... I think POU could hit 18 if the bands set up..

Probably not as much as the snowicane in Feb, but i would take 18" of powder and drifting over 24" o heavy slop and power outages any day.

Game time!!! I have been tracking this thing for like 10 days and everything has finally come together - I am staying up for the overnight duration if banding sets up... This is looking to be an epic setup.

18Z GFS KSWF BUFKIT snow total 28.5 QPF 1.44 @ 12 to 1 ratio 17.28

KPOU snow total snow total 28.5 QPF 1.52 @ 12 to 1 ratio 18.24

I am ready.. Bring it on.

Upton just issued a sternly worded warning package for the forecast area to numerous to post here. Snowcane II

18Z NAM was left of the BM, perfect for the HV

I wait here for the usual slow NWS Albany to put me under Winter Storm Warning!!! I am like 10 miles from Upton's domain in Putnam, so I usually look at the Putnam area to get a feel for Upton's take.

Euro follows the GFS - close to 1" qpf for most of the HV... Let's hope it holds serve now tomorrow.. As each hour passes, our chances increase tremendously at this range.

R.E. GFS 0Z BUFKIT for KPOU

The only two stations in Southern NY are Poughkeepsie and Newburgh, unfortunately.

You've already heard about Newburgh.

Poughkeepsie: 33.2" :o

Holy Hudson valley run on 0z gas. There is a peak of qpf here

We NEED consensus from the Euro now... I won't feel comfortable until I see it.

Merry Christmas my fellow HV posters!

I will of course be keeping a watchful eye on the all important 0Z model suite... What a soap opera, but here's to hoping for a nice christmas present from our foreign models!