WEATHER53

It’s not that winter is over. It’s just simply that models have gotten way worse in handling Nina winters with the low pressure placements and movement and even if any low forms at all. They never really could handle Bs and phasing for our region .Too many parts apparently to sift through. On an A, run an already raining low over Atlanta into cold air over us. Easy, no real moving parts and infinite variables. Last night a 500mb map jumped 800 miles in 6 hours. This is not science, its patchwork example giving .

A bunch of us are booked for 7 springs Laurel Highlands

Air Florida disaster 44 years ago today. Heavy snow and inane deicing policies and a great snow day turned horrid

Then you don’t like winter weather .Come back in May

I’m wondering how much weaker the Gulf Stream has actually gotten and what effect that might be having on moisture not drawing up from the south and along the east coast. Matt used to comment (where in the world did he go and why ??) 15 years ago how models did so much better in ninos. He was correct and that correctness has un fortunately increased. Models are virtually helpless in Miller B dominated low pressure placements, movements and developments in Nina,no stj winters for mid Atlantic

Jesus another two weeks away . We are now living in silly land entirely I beg you all that pay for this crap to stop and address the issues with the vendors

A long time ago he had some sort of anonymity issue over something.

It’s just freaking incredible

It’s their design

That is an absurd depiction

Covered this at end of Dec as to the 7th then 14th then 21st being the magic moment . 7th out the door and 14th on life support so let’s head in the sand for the 21st. Models cannot predict low pressure placements and movements around the mid Atlantic in the winter. They are not outcome related forecasts, they are myriads of examples. That desperately needs to be resolved

It’s probably going to have to get east of our longitude to really snow. Last night it came up about 2016 and thst was a long drawn out 0.5” event

Yeah driving on 70 east of Frederick was near white out

Yes and that’s an analog season for me

Yes as depicted the low would have to be east of our longitude before snow will fall

Did the monster storm 50 miles east of OC get taken off the board?

That’s it!!

2016?

I swear 2016 lined up a lot like that top one . Went on snd on

It’s a bit south of the classic passage point over Atlanta but at least it’s from the south

Perfection is required for Miller B domination.. When a low comes up from Georgia and moves northeast like an A then very little perfection is needed. We don’t get As for almost 10 years now

It’s best to never focus on days 1-15 and always hang hats on delayed fulfillment . Thanks for the invite

The idea of a pronounced 30-45 day cold run was very good and since last 4 days of November thru today being 40 days it ends. 30 of 40 were below average including 21 in a row (Wow) and averaged -5. Snow has not shown up yet

Painfully true which creates painful ignorance and outbursts from model worshippers

So the 7th and 14th are out now for the delayed mantra? 21st looking better?