DAFF
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Everything posted by DAFF
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This one reminds me of the dollar brown paper bag of candy you would buy as a kid. Dreaming of your great purchase as you walk to the counter, bag of crap. Rainer mode on 8 here..
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Im thinking this seasons winter weather is sponsored by Portland Cement. I'm ready to engage in the next round of transitions ...
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I'd say the Euro is one step closer, in getting out of the ALEK doghouse..
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Why do Doctors practice medicine? It allows for error, for when results do not follow expected protocol. Your reflection of the system. Will help others become better forecasters and is a important personal pathway of educational growth. Thanks for sharing this awesome post..
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^^ Impressive. This non rainer forecast..
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Locally the models did respectively well. The highlights were bright skys followed by a wall of wind with dark clouds. Temps dropping 13deg F in a near instant. A few minutes later, a nice flash of lighting with a good clap of thunder while rain poured. Flash freeze this AM. The amount of standing water today is actually very impressive. Such a waste of a moisture plume, imagine if that was all snow.
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I expect these, finer details of the system will continue to create havoc on the forecasters as we move closer. Almost everyone is going to experience the transition from spring back to winter with this one. For me I'm looking at buckets of rain with a freeze up on the back side. Warm slotted from beginning to end. Although one more eastern nudge could change this.
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Latest Euro, shows the Low travel more less over Cleveland. Which is way east of yesterday. The next round of modeling should fine tune this placement a bit more.
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I wonder how much of the 2M air temp differences shown are from the interpretation of the modeling pools of warmth from the lakes. The NAM seems much more sensitive to the warm waters over the GFS.
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It's crunch time for the models, as they start to incorporate some sampling. Let the melt downs ensue from all these clown icing maps and snow totals. Rain looks a lock IMBY with something of a transition on the back side.
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Thinking the best way of describing this system is by transition. Wet stuff will fall, lots of it. How the cold transitions this rain to a wintery form of precip, here lies the unknown.
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Been waiting for a good wind to shake up the atmosphere. Torch is behind us, a marginal temperature profile of winter awaits.
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If you watch the 2m temp anomalies of the Euro loop to the north. There is a total sea of red for the entire 240 hour loop.
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The GFS....
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Law of averages wrt seasonal snow totals for a specific locality. Is difficult to topple. In time, it usually works out within par for the course.
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What was the timeline for the models to start sniffing out the Nov 11 system? Who was king that round? Thinking this might be a good guide of what to watch out for in the upcoming runs.
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At least you get a forecast discussion.. EC is the worst wrt to so many elements of forecasting.
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The bottom line is the Day 5 (Monday/Tuesday) timeframe remains a period of interest for an accumulating snow event, however, the smart money strongly favors a suppressed southern solution to the mid latitude cyclone, In other words, a dry solution is preferred for Southeast Michigan. Euro train, has left the station...
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I hate reading this thread, when a page takes days to complete. Punts, ZZZZzz's, November snows and south stank are like horderves. They kind of tie you over until the main course. Although, I can't wait for the first seasonal weenie melt down and winter to hunker in.
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Still better than EC...
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Gut says, Bo will be hunkered in for a bit yet... Pace of life, is parallel to your surroundings.
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Snow averages are just that, averages. Epic snows are tough to replicate. Even with a locally record start, averages will sort themselves out in time.
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Early snows and cold are good for stat padding, might be a while before true winter sets in....
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Seems odd, when the leaves litter the fresh white snow on the ground. Day 5 of sustained snow on the ground and still have grass hydroseeding to complete for the city.
