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Posts posted by jm1220

  1. 4 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

    Up to 1.59” since yesterday morning here after that last round of showers. Judging by radar I’m assuming the island isn’t going to get all that much more unless precip gets enhanced overnight

    Up to about 1.2” here. Back to the mist. 

  2. 22 minutes ago, psv88 said:

    Suffolk county missing the worst again. Ready for some real coastal for a change. Been a while 

    Looks like heavier rain about to move in, but 90% of this here has been wind blown drizzle. And models almost entirely have the heaviest rain north of us from here. Just 3 days of misery. 

  3. 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

    Rain amounts on the island have been all over the place it seems. 

    Montauk point somehow got 0.79 so far as of this morning,  I have 0.40 roughly,  0.34 i think in islip.  But wear off that is in the 1 inch or more range.  


    I’m at about an inch. Around Rt 112 got quite a bit more since they had the training band earlier this morning. 

  4. 1 hour ago, wdrag said:

    Uncertainty but I think there will be substantial northeast-east isobaric gradient developing sometime in this time frame with tides starting out 1/2-3/4 foot higher than than that of current Ophelia impact.  This combined with the continued daily constancy of onshore flow that began Sept 22 for NJ-DE-MD suggests to me increased beach erosion-coastal flooding """potential"""" beyond that of Ophelia  Questions: If this low pressure system does form, can it muster subtropical characteristics and la-lo track of the center.  Worthy of monitoring. Right now I can't grab anything from the FSU web site to check phase diagrams.


    I added the EPS 24 hr QPF ending Saturday morning suggesting something going on late this coming week.

    Screen Shot 2023-09-24 at 7.56.21 AM.png

    Ugggh :facepalm: not again. But thanks as always for the analysis Walt. 

    • Like 1
  5. 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

    Same here for about 10 minutes… only was under green radar echoes and the rain was heavy. Close to an inch now. 

    Question: whats supposed to enhance the rain tomorrow with the low? Is their a front or ULL or something? 

    It’s the remnant low from Ophelia heading toward the NJ coast, and because dry air wrapped into the eastern/southern side of the storm, the rain will be on the north side where we are. 

    • Thanks 1
  6. 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I feel like GW causes us to get stuck in more extreme patterns for longer durations of time....no research, just my anecdotal ob....this can sometimes lead to some extreme cold of duration, like '13-'14 and '14-15'. But more often than not, it means warmth, obviously....so maybe in that sense, the strong of warm NE winters relative to the rest of the nation IS due to GW to some degree, but that isn't permanent. 

    The background state is getting warmer, so a cold pattern will be a little less cold and warmer patterns significantly warmer, but I think more research needs to be done on these marine heatwaves and how they affect the global patterns. It’s been plenty to near record cold in the Northwest in the past several winters. The W PAC marine heatwaves especially near Indonesia have been sticking the MJO in phases 4-6 repeatedly even when a Nino tries to develop. The PDO might be in a negative multi decade phase now but the waters near Japan are practically on fire and negates the warm water trying to move toward the W Coast. The warm water near Newfoundland probably helps cause further south NAO blocks when they do develop. I’m sure it’s not the only cause or 60% cause or whatever but it’ll be interesting to read what feedbacks they help drive since the oceans contain the vast majority of the global heat budget especially in the tropics. 

    • Like 2
  7. 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

    @jm1220 acting like the dry air will keep him from getting 2-3 inches of rain on Long Island 

    I don’t care if there’s 2-3” of rain here on LI. The weekend’s ruined regardless. I was pointing out what might happen because of the ridging and confluence over Canada. If we get soaked or not, great. 

    • Like 2
  8. Interesting battle between the GFS and NAM which keep drying the rain up in the confluence, and RGEM that’s still very wet. Euro looks to be in the middle and still gets rain all the way upstate. If I had to pick one group I’d pick the dry models since we’ve seen setups like these before that ended up drier than expected because it has to overcome reinforcing high pressure/dry air. And Sunday is looking drier on those models as well because the confluence is being reinforced in Quebec. But like I said regardless, it’s going to be an awful weekend. 

    • Like 3
    • Weenie 1
  9. 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

    Gfs continues to focus on Sunday as the main show

    Wouldn't shock me. On Sat, the storm will be pushing north into a lot of dry air/confluence due to a high building north of the area and northerly flow coming from Canada, so the initial push of heavy rain might dry up once at a certain latitude. Sat might be waves of heavy rain getting eaten up in the dry air. The low coming closest to the area on Sunday would mean more of a chance of heavy rain, but the confluence doesn't really go away and the low gets forced east off the NJ coast. GFS actually has a reinforcing wave of confluence coming south in Canada on Sunday.

    I can definitely see a sharp cutoff between 2"+ and little rain because of the dry air/confluence and the low being forced east. Models are starting to key in on maybe I-84 or a little north from there for the cutoff. Regardless of the heavy rain it'll be a nasty weekend with 30+ mph winds which the pressure gradient makes worse. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
  10. Just now, Brian5671 said:

    Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland

    Suppressing flow coming from the north as well via the Canadian ridge. Still the question of whether the tropical low cuts N or NNW from the Carolina coast or is shoved east because of the suppressing flow over New England. 

  11. 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    I was generalizing about the upcoming cold season. This weekends storm is pretty meh. Though it does have some upside potential if all goes right with full moon tides.

    On that I agree, strong Ninos are usually stormy for us. Hopefully we don’t have everything suppressed or get overwhelmed with Pacific air. We also still have competing Nina influences so it’ll be interesting to see how it shakes out. 

    • Like 2
  12. 21 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    I think we are in for our best nor’easter in many many years. Record warm coastal waters and a strong El Niño. Just a hunch. 

    We’ll see. Odds favor it but I can see it being squashed underneath us by the massive central Canada ridge suppressing the flow and weaker SE ridge due to the cold water chopped up by the recent hurricanes. In any event I have outdoor plans this weekend so I hope the squashed/suppressed outcome happens. Which means it won’t. 

  13. 6 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

    OKX still going for 1"+ for coast:



    We’re probably still in for a soaking here but it’s all about the SE ridge, if it’s weaker this can slide/get booted east quicker. The models all lurching east at 12z say the Euro might be onto something. 

    • Like 1
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