zenmsav6810

I'm not sure if frequency of Nor' Easters are exactly a solid metric of climatology. There's so many confounding variables such as ENSO, oscillations factors, not to mention storm subtype classifications that would have to be controlled for to make sense of the data. The occurrence of a snowstorm in CHESCO is too rare and random an event to really make any sort of statistical analysis out of. The one study that once got my attention on a similar matter used a statistical method called bootstrapping (to show an eastward shift in Tornado Alley). This got around the meta-factors and stochastic principle. Its also worth noting that its a much larger area with many more data points than IMBY MECSes.

Witnessed through family legend and photos (barn roof caved in!)

5. 1994 (I wasn't yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.

Im not sure if its all timer but its probably the best widespread MECS we've had in the last decade and a half. Notable with the potential follow-up threats

I would argue that its a philosophical point. I would almost argue its impossible not to transfer. All low pressures are created by thermal convection which is a transfer of heat from one object [land/water]/ air mass to another. Radiation and conduction also play a role I suppose.

I think local development and more impervious surface/blacktop effect has a lot to do with this too which is also a man made climo effect.

I had a comment that this seemed like this storm was a Miller B/Miller C hybrid- but no one seemed to appreciate my comment. It was mocked even.

Perhaps its a more ..."efficient" transfer of the primary to the costal low. That seems to be driving the earlier/faster evolution/colder/more southern solutions

Yes, this will be a nice storm especial for the NW crew. Its been consistent with the followup storms too.

Its not too late! Just go twice!!

everyones a winner on that map.

Dr. No says "yes, almost certainly an secs+"

I'm fine personally. Its work and municipalities that im worried about.

I still think NW might eek out 12"-15"

well shoot! A ZR storm it will be. How does this kinda thing happen. We should be well supplied with the winters weve had recently.

Hear there is a salt shortage this go round to at least in honeybrook/coatesville area.

Expecting a NAM'ing at 18z.

Nice! I also did not know that... now would that be the geometric average or the arithmetic average Lol

Car measure at -2F at 8:30am. My guess is that it got close to -5F or -6 when it was dark out here in Yellow House.

Lol you must be fun at parties.

thanks for your insightful critique of my comment.

I'm thinking that the high pressure is a bit overdone. I personally think this is more of a blend between PDII and Dec 2000. Plenty still can go wrong. A few days ago I thought the GFS was showing more of a Miller C setup but now it shows more of a Miller B look. PDII had a pretty organized precip shield but we still ended up with a bit of a dry slot about 2/3rds of the way through the storm even as NW as berks county. I think the QPF was a bit higher with PDII overall too.

Its giving 2010 vibes... also a winter olympics year!

Crush job for Monmouth county and Fairfax, VA... bet it verifies.

Is this a No Kings protest? The King Euro is back!