CIK62

The period 11/28---12/15, seems forfeited to the heat gods as downpayment for what will follow till June>>>CFS.

Get with the facts. CFS is warm for Dec. Then it goes ballistically and statistically RECORD COLD for the whole continent. We turn green with envy. Green is 10 degs. F BN for everyone, everywhere. Obviously suspect. Check it out. Nice computer game for a child to play with.

Get ready for 5 or 6 weeks of AN boredom according to the CFS. This starts before this month ends and is still going by Jan. 1. PV retreats to other side of pole and any troughs we get have no real cold air feeding them anyway. Big negative AO for a short time is not as good as a moderate one that lasts. JB still likes BN Dec. based on his own analogs. Pray that he is playing a meteorologist and not a lawyer with this one-----he went against grain with Nov., and should be limping into home plate a winner. What do Jimmy Soul (1963 #1 Hit) and most of the USA have in common? They are both 'married' to an Ugly Looking CFS Model.

CFS still playing 'dirty pool' by getting progressively colder, relative to normal, as new year progresses---then it gives us pizza oven heat suddenly in July/August. THANKS, I DIDN'T NEED THAT. As for Dec.-----get ready to give 2015 competition, it warns.

The CFS is all red in the face again for the next 45 days, nationwide. If anyone said something to offend this model, please apologize now----- before there is a run on AC's in Dec.

And this is how Dec. looks on the latest 10 day:

After Dec., CFS is very cold now for everyone, everywhere gentlemen. Really shocking that all the latest 10 day runs are Cold everywhere now. Feb./Mar like -5C's. What are they feeding this model, tainted snowballs?

EURO Control for next 46 days kicks Dec. off with a marshmallow roasting contest and basically has some accidental cold every 4 or 5 days, lasting 1 day or so as the month drags by. Going to be a late winter or no winter, if you ask me. Hey, where have I seen this before? Well you told me not to use the CFS. lol Really---I can mark 2BN days in the first halve of the month.

The latest 10-day period, 40 runs, of the CFS Winter Forecast is hopeful. Cold now looks to invade south and cover 80% of the country, but not us....yet. Older runs showed only some hope in the Pacific NW .http://models.weatherbell.com/cfs/2017111118/noram/cfs_anom3_t2m_noram_201712_avg.php#

Last 10 days of Nov. definitely favor BN by the CFS. First 10 days of Dec are a tossup, but BN is never positioned far from us. 'Next 45 Days' output actually shows BN for the first time in I do not know how long. btw: The EURO Weeklies reverse these two predictions.

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or about 3degs. BN. Just under 25degs., (where it was all night, just about)here in CI now.

JB continues to stress his belief the CFS is dead wrong on heat in the East. Next 6 weeks plus will be wicked, he says. Ski to your heart's delight in northeast too.

Presented for your viewing pleasure, the CFS opinion on December, based on the latest 40 runs: Do Not Stare at it, out of fear of cauterizing your retinas. Some of the individual runs have Hudson Bay 30 degrees above normal. It is just a game folks. This Too Shall Pass.

First 3 weeks of Dec. look bloody red, on the CFS. JB acknowledges the sauna-looking December appearance, but insists it is wrong.

Your theory works if we are not chasing a moving target. If anything, a shorter time frame like 20 years, updated every other year should be shown along side the longest recording period available----1869 onward, in order to view the change or at least the current most trend. What has happened here is what would happen if you were rolling fair dice and suddenly someone substituted loaded dice. The number 7 would be skewed upward. The earlier collected data would look to be in error. Sounds like our temperatures and precipitation to me. More snow falls now because precipitation has increased 15% since the mid 1960's, even using the 5 year drought just before that time means little, it is nothing but a small echo to the average. In the winter, till NYC warms too much, this means more snow.

Gotta love that CFS long range. It has a White Christmas for 10 days even before Christmas morning gets here---and long after it. Nice work you sweet, sweet Elves. lol. Basically it was always showing a White Christmas, but this is the best yet.

Next 45 days back up to +3/4degs. CFS has favorable teleconnections with a -NAO, -AO and a PNA playing catch up, going + in two weeks. So there is still hope here. Everything else looks ugly over the next 4 months as before, not including Nov., whose last known whereabouts was AN of course.

Next 45 days down to Normal now, but monthlies show no relief till April/May when they go Normal. This represents no change yet. Then all Blues disappear, and it is "BurnBabyBurnTime".

I get 29" as the 30 year average for NYC. These experts are telling you the average is 25," so their claims of an above average snowy winter looks right when we terminate with the real average of 29"+, especially prevalent in recent years.

With a final result of +7.2degs. for Oct., I estimate that Nov. only needs to be +3.5degs. for us to have the warmest Fall ever in NYC. In addition, during the last 50-day period, there were just 5 BN days. It must be 26 of the last 31 months that have been above normal now. No BN month is predicted anytime soon to boot. CFS gets us close in April/May before zooming again. Next BN month is going to be an accident, a mere atmospheric after-thought and miscue. btw: If those 5 BN days had occurred as a cluster, it would not even had made it to -3degs.

CFS is bloody red for the next 6 weeks. If so we are going to wind up with a three month period that is +6degs. or +7degs. AN. Sept. 13 --- Dec. 15 gone. RIP Funny thing is with Oct. now Number 1, we only knock the average monthly high record down by less than a year. Somewhere under 30 years. Previous record was only 10 years old. The real target is Jan,. which is 85 years old. CFS has a one track mind till April, May---as I mentioned before.

Next 45 days look like a furnace around here. Snowballs will have to be formed from hot lava. No snow cover up here till Jan. 9th. Winter will probably have some short intense cold periods. We will be lucky with 30 day slices that are 17AN/13BN. And of course the CFS goes normal or better just in time for April and May. Anyone have any long range data that differs from this---come forth now. So far my area has nearly 2" using station in (Sheepshead Bay) Winds topped so far at 21mph. Pressure 29.37"

The CFS for the next 45 days is ugly. Maybe +7degs. Eating Thanksgiving turkey on a patio with the sun shade out is not Thanksgiving. Having to be inside a giant meat locker refrigerator just to make a simple snowball out to Dec. 10 is outrageous. Forget about the warmest Fall ever, at this rate in 30 days it will be talk of the warmest year ever. EPO tries to save it all from a thermal runaway, finally giving up the ghost along with the other indexes (which are never right after the next few days)as we start Dec., when egg frying on the streets should be become possible. And this is brought to you by the EURO.

Buoy 44025 back to a prediction of 9' seas.

Not at all too early to think about the warmest Fall ever (SON). If Oct. finishes near +7.5degs. and is combined with Sept.'s +2.5degs., I estimate Nov. need only be about +3degs. to set a new Fall warmth record. Record now [SON} is 61.8degs.--- in 2015. Normal for [SON] is 57.5degs. Difference to set a new record would thus be +4.4degs. Sept. contributes 0.82, Oct. (estimated) will contribute 2.60, and Nov. would be contributing about 1.00, so it needs to end up near +3.0degs. or better.