CIK62

GEFS Extended has already surrendered the 20" 30_Day_Total---it recently indicated for the Control Member---and dropped it to 8" (all from a single event on the 13th) which means 0" total. Atlanta GA is doing better at this moment with snow flurries and a drop down to 28* by morning, than we might over the next two weeks.

The first 10 days of December are averaging 43degs.(38/47). Making it 37degs., or -3.0. There is no Snow showing for the period or through the first half of the month for that matter, since Dec.14 now keeps showing up as Rain in the 50's-----instead of the earlier snow in the 30's. The period of Dec. 20---Jan. 20 looks like a loser's game if you like snow and cold. Only an atmospheric accident will help us here----read that as 'miracle'. CAR SSWE....... WHERE ARE YOU? The Meteorological Winter at a glance:

The GEFS Extended which not many days ago showed Winter arriving with T's in the 60's, now greets the cold solstice with a major snowstorm and has a total of 20" for the month. Plenty of time for it to reach 40" and drop back to 0" many times.

GEFS is really making the alleged BN period for the first half of December look like a head fake. There are no 5-Day periods showing as BN. Closest is the period centered on the 10th. Traces of snow that showed successively for the 2nd, 5th, 7th. and 10th. have melted.

Some BN T's YES----but accumulating snow NO. All the Ensembles are basically barren. GEFS leads the trio with a 20% chance of at least 2" in the next 15 days, or a 60% chance of seeing anything that can be measured. The EURO and CMC Ensembles are just 20% to 30% of seeing anything. I will keep checking to detect an improvement. Dec. 10-12 could have our first sub-32 degree High T.

Only if you line your street with Dry Ice--------Ooops! -----the government has bought all of it up for the transport/storage of those vaccines. Sorry, December 4-5 has or had a better chance. The BN air does not really reach us now till Week 2.

CMC is 7" on Dec. 04. Real issue is how many hurricanes is it showing at that time! Lol. CMC has lost all our Snow on latest run (12Z) and now has snow down to Florida. (Route 95, anyone?) Still looking for those ubiquitous CMC TC's. Lol x 2!

I am not talking about being vaccinated with a debilitated virus, but getting exposed from the environment the way 10's of millions have worldwide. Isn't that what we are trying to achieve?

I am not putting much faith into those 95% effectiveness quotes because all the short term testing results were purely statistical. NO ONE was actually exposed to a high load active nCV19 atmosphere and/or surface. No. Just two groups of equal size (40,000 each?) were given the subject vaccine or a placebo---w/o being told who got what, so that their behavior would not be influenced. Unfortunately on that score, those who got the vaccine had low grade fever, cough, aches and lethargy for a day and would know they got the real thing. At any rate, each group was told to keep wearing a mask, wash their hands and socially distance. After several months of going about their lives as they were before testing began-----it turned out that for every 10-15 placebo group subjects who at some point tested positive-----only 1 subject from the vaccinated group did. Thus the 95% or so number arises. All they really had to do to conclusively proof the vaccine really is effective, was to have had a third group that was actually exposed to the live virus------Here breathe deeply from the air in this bag!, Now touch this contaminated surface with your hands and then lick one finger, stick another finger in your nose and rub your eyes with a third one!! The eyes have been identified as a transmission venue. Now the two vaccinated groups should have similar outcomes. It is easy to see vaccinated people not wearing masks anymore, washing their hands no more often than they did before and not socially distancing. No, the third group I mentioned will exist only outside the laboratory. I did not even talk about safety issues here because there is not data for that. Something that is going to kill 1 in 10,000 subjects over a period of a few years can not be exposed in a test of a few thousand people lasting for a few months. All we know is that it can not be used in a Capital Punishment Execution----it works too slowly!!!

Trump has to blame himself because he told his followers not to use mail-in voting! Remember when his newly appointed Postmaster General went right to it-----destroying the ability of his new charge to handle the election volume. The late ballots in Philadelphia were segregated and never even used! So they can't be subtracted!! 1 out 300 mail-ins only had a vote for President, either T or B!!! I always left positions empty when I even bothered to vote at all. Loudest Vote Ever: THEY HELD AN ELECTION AND NOBODY SHOWED UP OR VOTED BY MAIL. Who says that Republicans won't be found to have cheated too? Only Democrats cheat? What! Trump has hidden his tax returns for four years due to an alleged audit. Their methods are more subtle-----intimidate potential voters from ever voting to begin with. Harder to proof, but effective.

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500). I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails. Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range. This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we dreamed it. Before you even heard the term CoronaVirus the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.' The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X times that of the economy. The average value here is 0.85X, in other words, smaller than the whole economy. A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

COVID-19 & CANDIDA-AURIS & GLOBAL WARMING Yet another problem for hospitals as the population in them begins to explode: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/10/drug-resistant-superbug-candida-auris-thriving-hospitals-coronavirus-era/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20201023&rid=B9928FB3EBF090DA6038662B9C04F4BA

Just heard on the radio of a "BRAIN EATING AMOEBA" in the drinking water in an area south of Houston, TX. Will this story supersede the COVID-19? Seems as harmless as COVID-19 was at the start. https://news.yahoo.com/6-old-boy-dies-suffering-182242656.html

59 years ago today, we were home watching a blizzard wipe out the mid-Atlantic and the City*. Anyone here remember if Public Schools were open on that Monday? Mayor Wagner had them opened for Hurricane Donna, exactly three months earlier, and during the Jan. 1964 Blizzard, but closed the next day. *This immediately reminds us of the sad sight of Stephen Baltz, the temporary sole survivor of the Dec. 16 mid-air collision over SI, lying in a pile of melting snow from this storm at Sterling Place/7th. Avenue.

First 5 days of July look BN with little precipitation.

I was on the roof of the building my city agency occupied on July 4, 1986. This was the Battery Maritime Building ( now being made a hotel?),[@27:53 in ABC Part 1-bottom right, green patch] where you get the Governors Island Ferry. Mayor Koch and the Commissioner(s) were just below me in the Comm's. Off. A police security detail was with us on the roof, and yes, I was wearing a sweat shirt against a ne. wind. But it was 98* a few days later. July 4, 1999 had 101* ×2 around that time. A TS that came early, near Noon, one day that weekend sent the big crowd home and I had a hot, wet beach for myself---I had waited it out in the men's room near me. Lol

We are down to exactly Normal for the DJF period, according to the CPC. JB has an exaggerated negative bias where the CPC has Normal throughout SE/MA.

JB still has all his eggs in the basket of the 'Ash Wed. analog 1962' to our setup in early March. SDiM is not on board with this.

JB, never one to admit he is wrong, is now talking about March as he was about Feb. Rekindling the ghost of Ash Wed. NE of '62 and some strong 1984 event. He just skips by the warmest Feb. ever. If he blows it, I am certain he will merely move on to his hurricane forecast or something about putative global warming theories.

On the paysite. Probably will go public tomorrow AM. CPC output has caved too. Tomorrow we will see what they have to say, since meteorologists there lick their wounds on weekends or party for 48hrs. if they get it right.

NYNJPA waved the white flag and gave up on the remainder of the winter. A wrong way SSW does us in.

And they always made you feel like they are in your city. But the same ACCUWEATHER person can be followed from Boston-Philly-NYC at a different number of minutes after the hour/half hour. Really, for two of the cities they are only looking at a RADAR screen/computer terminal and not out their window! Back around Aug. 05, 1999, NYC was hit by 4 Thunder Storms in 2.5 hours, and WINS did not have a word about it in a "live" report I heard while on the beach, despite the fact I was already getting ready to flee from the imminent storm #1 that PM.

John Coleman of the Weather Channel passed away Jan. 20. He was 83. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/21/obituaries/john-coleman-co-founder-of-the-weather-channel-dies-at-83.html?ribbon-ad-idx=9&rref=obituaries&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Obituaries&pgtype=article

So complex, that the writer probably intends to use it support whatever Feb/Mar brings. Meanwhile JB has begun to skip by Feb. and now talks about Mar. saving things.

The CFS is either Clueless or Snowless for the next 33 days around here. It likes your timing.