CIK62

For this time next week the EURO raised heights by 200m between last night's output and this morning's. I think the GFS had a chance of snow next Sunday at this time last week, ie 14 days out. Bleak snow outlook except for miracles, these next two weeks. I always like to see a 3+day run of sub-32 Highs predicted---before I believe in significant snow chances----since a short-wave often meanders by in a period that is 72+ hours long. Ideas where the system will bring in the cold with it, or generate its own cold air are too speculative. Well so is CADamming. ****** I do remember that early season snowstorm. Due to the Stillwell Ave. Subway Terminal renewal project at the time, I was forced to get off the Brighton Line at Sheepshead Bay Road and wait for the B-36 bus to complete the run to CI. Long wait with blowing snow. I believe this was in the morning as I was returning from a dental appointment---not from work.

The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(36/44). Making it 35degs., or about -3.0. The three main models are all snowless for their durations. 47*(99%RH) here at 6am, rain. 44* by 8am. 42* by 9am. 46* by 2pm with clearing skies. 48* by 3pm. 49* at 3:15pm. 46* at 4pm. 45* at 5pm. 41* by 8pm.

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or about -3.0, no change from yesterday. Only EURO has even a Trace of snow(5th )&(10th.). GEFS Control Member has a Trace there too-----then goes silent for 30 days! btw: Tampa's 32 month run of AN T's really is in some jeopardy, as I predicted. The rest of December there must already beat +1.2, to keep the streak alive. 47*(66%RH) at 6am. 50* by 11:30am, back to 47* by 3pm with drizzle.

GFS:(OP) Dec. 10-17 is averaging +9, that is in degrees boys----not inches! It will probably be just +3 in reality, Really! I routinely cut the OP by 5 degrees for the first 8 day average. More beyond that, less for shorter periods of course. PROBABILITY OF A WHITE CHRISTMAS based on the current 30-Year-Normal. This is Not the prediction for any particular winter. For NYC we will probably be working up or down from a raw chance of about 20%. Chicago starts at 50/50. Minneapolis starts at 80% etc.:

The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(36/45). Making it 36degs., or about -3.0. GFS with some snow on the 13th. 36*(65%RH) here at 6am. 44* by Noon. 46* by 12:30pm. 49* by 3pm. 48* by 8pm.

Not gonna be by accident you say? Look at the morning of Dec. 15. GFS just went from 7degrees BN to a whopping 27 degrees AN in a single run.

Info mostly from WeatherBell charts. Where is your disagreement? UC snow? I want some snow but no actionable or bettable events are out there. The only likely weather worthy event I see now, is Tampa's 32 month stretch w/o a BN one may end. Snowstorms will be by accident this winter, I believe. Meanwhile our last 'measureable' snow was Jan.18. What is your guess for a measurable event?

The next 8 days are averaging 42degs.(38/45). Making it 37degs., or -3.0. There is No Snow on the 3 primary models except for a Trace near the 7th. Mid-month deal is back to rain in the 60's. 38*(60%RH) here at 6am. 43* by Noon.

Question: Which model can change rain and T's in 50's, into 10" of snow and T's in the 20's----within 1 run. (For the 13th./14th. which has switched again) Why it is the "GFS---I Just Dropped in to See What Condition My Forecast Was In", model. Bring it on!

You better figure out a way to vaccinate the US Dollar, and quickly. It is making a new 1 Year low and support is collapsing. It will take the Stock Market with it and bring on hyper-inflation. Remember the deficit is now 3T/year. It took from 1780-1992 to reach 3T National Debt. Now it takes the deficit just a year to add that much more to the total debt. It can never be repaid with real money. My Motto is: I will be wrong until I'm right----and then I will really be right----and will scare even myself!

EURO is 0.3" snow and the GFS,CMC are 0.0" for the next 10 days. GFS is blank till the 16th. GFS has had a Trace or better on all these dates at one time or another......Dec. 02,05,07,10,13 now the 16th. This is shotgun forecasting. When you start seeing a period with reliable consecutive sub-freezing High T's----then something may happen. The GEFS doesn't even have a single BN 5-Day period showing. I do think Tampa, Florida's feat of 32 straight months w/o a BN one, could end. All 5-Day periods are BN in Florida. Coney Island Polar Bear Club moving to Florida to demonstrate their superior abilities: LOL

The first 8 days of December are averaging 45degs.(41/50). Making it 40degs., or just Normal. EURO is much colder for the period. GFS has not been vaccinated yet. 54*(99%RH) here at 6am, overcast 50* by Noon. 49* by 12:30pm. 48* by 2pm. 47* by 2:30pm. 45* by 3pm. 42* by 7pm. 40* by 10pm. 39* by 10:30pm.

GEFS Extended has already surrendered the 20" 30_Day_Total---it recently indicated for the Control Member---and dropped it to 8" (all from a single event on the 13th) which means 0" total. Atlanta GA is doing better at this moment with snow flurries and a drop down to 28* by morning, than we might over the next two weeks.

The first 10 days of December are averaging 43degs.(38/47). Making it 37degs., or -3.0. There is no Snow showing for the period or through the first half of the month for that matter, since Dec.14 now keeps showing up as Rain in the 50's-----instead of the earlier snow in the 30's. The period of Dec. 20---Jan. 20 looks like a loser's game if you like snow and cold. Only an atmospheric accident will help us here----read that as 'miracle'. CAR SSWE....... WHERE ARE YOU? The Meteorological Winter at a glance:

The GEFS Extended which not many days ago showed Winter arriving with T's in the 60's, now greets the cold solstice with a major snowstorm and has a total of 20" for the month. Plenty of time for it to reach 40" and drop back to 0" many times.

GEFS is really making the alleged BN period for the first half of December look like a head fake. There are no 5-Day periods showing as BN. Closest is the period centered on the 10th. Traces of snow that showed successively for the 2nd, 5th, 7th. and 10th. have melted.

Some BN T's YES----but accumulating snow NO. All the Ensembles are basically barren. GEFS leads the trio with a 20% chance of at least 2" in the next 15 days, or a 60% chance of seeing anything that can be measured. The EURO and CMC Ensembles are just 20% to 30% of seeing anything. I will keep checking to detect an improvement. Dec. 10-12 could have our first sub-32 degree High T.

Only if you line your street with Dry Ice--------Ooops! -----the government has bought all of it up for the transport/storage of those vaccines. Sorry, December 4-5 has or had a better chance. The BN air does not really reach us now till Week 2.

CMC is 7" on Dec. 04. Real issue is how many hurricanes is it showing at that time! Lol. CMC has lost all our Snow on latest run (12Z) and now has snow down to Florida. (Route 95, anyone?) Still looking for those ubiquitous CMC TC's. Lol x 2!

I am not talking about being vaccinated with a debilitated virus, but getting exposed from the environment the way 10's of millions have worldwide. Isn't that what we are trying to achieve?

I am not putting much faith into those 95% effectiveness quotes because all the short term testing results were purely statistical. NO ONE was actually exposed to a high load active nCV19 atmosphere and/or surface. No. Just two groups of equal size (40,000 each?) were given the subject vaccine or a placebo---w/o being told who got what, so that their behavior would not be influenced. Unfortunately on that score, those who got the vaccine had low grade fever, cough, aches and lethargy for a day and would know they got the real thing. At any rate, each group was told to keep wearing a mask, wash their hands and socially distance. After several months of going about their lives as they were before testing began-----it turned out that for every 10-15 placebo group subjects who at some point tested positive-----only 1 subject from the vaccinated group did. Thus the 95% or so number arises. All they really had to do to conclusively proof the vaccine really is effective, was to have had a third group that was actually exposed to the live virus------Here breathe deeply from the air in this bag!, Now touch this contaminated surface with your hands and then lick one finger, stick another finger in your nose and rub your eyes with a third one!! The eyes have been identified as a transmission venue. Now the two vaccinated groups should have similar outcomes. It is easy to see vaccinated people not wearing masks anymore, washing their hands no more often than they did before and not socially distancing. No, the third group I mentioned will exist only outside the laboratory. I did not even talk about safety issues here because there is not data for that. Something that is going to kill 1 in 10,000 subjects over a period of a few years can not be exposed in a test of a few thousand people lasting for a few months. All we know is that it can not be used in a Capital Punishment Execution----it works too slowly!!!

Trump has to blame himself because he told his followers not to use mail-in voting! Remember when his newly appointed Postmaster General went right to it-----destroying the ability of his new charge to handle the election volume. The late ballots in Philadelphia were segregated and never even used! So they can't be subtracted!! 1 out 300 mail-ins only had a vote for President, either T or B!!! I always left positions empty when I even bothered to vote at all. Loudest Vote Ever: THEY HELD AN ELECTION AND NOBODY SHOWED UP OR VOTED BY MAIL. Who says that Republicans won't be found to have cheated too? Only Democrats cheat? What! Trump has hidden his tax returns for four years due to an alleged audit. Their methods are more subtle-----intimidate potential voters from ever voting to begin with. Harder to proof, but effective.

DOW still has 8,000 points to drop (to get to the March/April CoronaVirus crisis low of 18,500). I expect a drop to 10,000 this time as Federal Reserve Monetary Diarrhea fails. Creating another 3 Trillion, (probably 8 Trillion will be required by next spring) will put the National Debt into the 1.6 to 2.0 times the size of the economy range. This will doom the present and there will be no future in the way we dreamed it. Before you even heard the term CoronaVirus the Stock Market was already two to three times overvalued with a 'strong economy.' The whole market valuation is currently 1.8X times that of the economy. The average value here is 0.85X, in other words, smaller than the whole economy. A LONG WALK OFF A SHORT PIER awaits those who medically survive the pandemic.

COVID-19 & CANDIDA-AURIS & GLOBAL WARMING Yet another problem for hospitals as the population in them begins to explode: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/10/drug-resistant-superbug-candida-auris-thriving-hospitals-coronavirus-era/?cmpid=org=ngp::mc=crm-email::src=ngp::cmp=editorial::add=SpecialEdition_20201023&rid=B9928FB3EBF090DA6038662B9C04F4BA

Just heard on the radio of a "BRAIN EATING AMOEBA" in the drinking water in an area south of Houston, TX. Will this story supersede the COVID-19? Seems as harmless as COVID-19 was at the start. https://news.yahoo.com/6-old-boy-dies-suffering-182242656.html