hawkeye_wx

The wind just hit, limbs down.

NWS just issued a warning for Cedar Rapids, even with the line two counties away.

This should be interesting, at the very least.  I'm just dreading the damage that will be done to my garden.

This line is really racing eastward.

Once again, rain/storms failed to fire here today.  Now, we either get something Monday or it'll be another week without rain.  I've only received a half inch over the last month.

42 minutes ago, wisconsinwx said:

I take it you’re pleased about that?  I certainly can’t complain about no overnight MCS action that keeps me up when I should be sleeping.

While I'd like to see some good action during the day now and then, I love overnight thunderstorms.  This summer, we are not getting much of either.  It is getting very dry over here.

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

Seems like nocturnal MCS are non-existent this season.  Most action has been from pulse type stuff back in parts of June and July.  

I can't recall even one overnight MCS this summer.  Most summers we get much of our rain overnight.

It was a great week of weather.  Unfortunately, the rain chances continue to dry up.

12z Euro qpf

1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

You got a pic?

It's 1pm...

Temp: 69º

Dew: 49º

Awesome!

The latest recon is finished and headed home.

The visible loop is certainly showing increased organization.  While it's not really convection, a ribbon of moisture has wrapped around the west/south sides of the center.

The pressure is up to 1002 mb.

The abnormal dryness has expanded into eastern Iowa.  I received 3 inches of rain in July, but much of that came during the first half of the month.  The lawns are browning.

The outflow is now pretty impressive, expanding in all quadrants.  It's just being undercut by the shear.

My initial thought this morning based on satellite and recon.... this is no longer a hurricane.  If it looks like this first thing in the morning, it may have a rough day.

HMON is similar to the UK.

The HWRF, however, now shows a badly-sheared, weak storm moving into Florida, and it never recovers.

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

unflagged 70kt SFMR 

But, oddly, flight level wind only in the 50s this pass.... compared to 80s in the same part of the core during the first pass.

It'll be interesting to see what it can do with the small core tonight.  The sudden upgrade is due to the new ball of intense convection over the center, but the pressure is still 996/997 mb, which is typically not cane worthy, and there isn't much surrounding the central blob.  The blob will have to persist to solidify cane status.

NHC has upgraded Isaias to a hurricane.

Seriously, organizing and intensifying to a cane while moving over Hispaniola has to be a first.

So who here put their money on Isaias entering Hispaniola as a misaligned, elongated surface-troughy TS and then leaving the island as a near hurricane?  Anyone?  Bueller?

On the 1-minute meso visible satellite loop, over the last hour the milky clouds have cleared in the Santo Domingo area so you can clearly see the west flow at the surface, so the alignment of mid and surface centers is much better than earlier.

Now the Euro is suddenly going nuts with this system in the Bahamas.  We're seeing a lot of back and forth, up and down from the models.

FWIW, the 12z HWRF has a much weaker system at landfall in NC than previous runs, due to shear.

Weather Underground's reporting station map currently shows a nw wind in the Santo Domingo area, but se wind in eastern DR.