hawkeye_wx

Medium-range models had been drying out through mid July, generally showing below average rain around here.  However, we got the 2" event a few days ago and now the EPS is creeping back up again with precip across the region.  With ridging in the nw and ne US, the upper midwest should be in a decent spot for moderate temps and regular rain chances.

Fortunately, one of the heavy bands set up over Cedar Rapids.  Once again there was very little thunder, but I got a much-needed 2.21" of rain.

Zero tornado watches in eastern Iowa this year.

Last night's weakening crap dropped 0.45" here, which makes my weekly total 1.39".  So, we basically got average rain out of this "wet" pattern.

My June total is only 3.09, which is 2" below average.

It appears a broken, weakening line of showers and storms this evening will be it for the week.  As Cyclone said, this ROF pattern has been lousy.  The heat and humidity is there, but the other ingredients are all weak.

13 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

I'd like to trade this ROF pattern in for a different one.  This particular one is lame AF.

Yep.  It's late June and we are still waiting for the first MCS activity of the year.  Storm season has been a dud.

I got 0.64" overnight.  It was more weakening crap with little lightning/thunder, but at least it was something.  The rest of the week now doesn't look great as everything goes back north, leaving only spotty activity here.

Cedar Rapids only made it to 93º both days this weekend, with a dew in the mid 70s, pretty standard for a moderate heat wave.

19 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Fairly lame heat wave for this area so far.  Looks like temps today will only make the 93-94 range again.  Dews not impressive as well.  

I guess after achieving 120+ heat indices/83 dews many times, heat waves like this just don't impress lol.  

The NWS forecast often has upper 90s during these heat waves, but we rarely get higher than low to mid 90s.

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looks like a nice fat cell heading your way this morning

All I got was a little bit of light rain.  It took all morning just to get 0.12".  As often happens with these summer morning storm events, it was fed from the backside by a low level jet.  The nose of the jet remained to my west, so the storms continued to back-build, and any storm that tried to move east of that LLJ nose quickly vanished.  Only a couple counties west and northwest widespread 1-3" fell.

The year without thunderstorms continues, as if winter wasn't boring enough.  Maybe next week's ring of fire pattern can finally produce something.

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

we all know that the active corridor always ends up further south than modeled.

Maybe.  Hopefully.  The ridge is pretty strong.

The model trend is to keep much of the ring-of-fire storms to my northwest next week.  There could be a band of several inches of rain up there while southeast Iowa and points east and south get nothing but heat.

Recon found 953 mb.

Yesterday's plains convection drove this system well south of the model forecast.  It's a big bust for many locations across Iowa.  I'm at least getting one more decent batch of general rain this morning.  We are getting into late June, but we are still waiting for our first good thunderstorm.  The vast majority of our rain this spring has been the stratiform type with little to no thunder.

We have received 0.53" of rain (all on June 3rd) since May 22nd.  This is the time of year when we average 1.25" per week.  The lawns are beginning to brown.

From 2007 to 2016, I averaged 8" of rain in June, a pretty crazy wet stretch.  We have not even reached average rain in June since 2020.

While we missed out on rain this week, the next two weeks are looking fairly warm and stormy.

The line of storms that moved ese-ward across northern Iowa yesterday produced a long path of 60-70 mph wind.  They crapped out just north of me, but I still got 40 mph gusts from the outflow.

Yesterday morning's Euro run was just a tease.  The mid to late-week storms have been lifted north again.  Most models show little to nothing here.  At least the garden will get some nice sun and heat.

There has been a big change on the Euro in the mid to late week period.  The multiple rounds of storms that had been forecast to remain north of my area are now dropping farther south.  Instead of zero rain, 1-2" is possible.

On 5/30/2025 at 5:57 PM, cyclone77 said:

Ready 2 b drowned

Not.  We got a half inch of rain a few days ago and now models are trying to paint a dry bulls-eye over Iowa for much of June.  Another severe-season snoozer.

This system was a dud for a large swath of sw through ne Iowa, where not much rain fell.... following days of models dropping 1+" across most of the state.  I was lucky to get 0.53", with only a couple very low rumbles.  Models are showing very little rain, again, for the next week+.  

This week's decent rain system vanished on the models.  We've gone from Tuesday washout to a few sprinkles/spritzes Tue-Thu.

My final rain total is 2.74".

It rained here all night... mostly light to moderate, but with a few downpours mixed in.  My total is up to 2.30".

It is kinda looking like my area is going to make it to June with no real severe weather.