hawkeye_wx

Wow, the GFS is spitting out a monster storm today... yowza!  It's too bad all the pieces need to align perfectly to get something like this... it's like having to flip a coin ten times and get all heads.

It's probably safe to throw the early NAM runs in the trash.  The global models are much farther south with the upper low.

The potential of the late-week storm is big.  The 18z GFS 500 mb setup is phenomenal and shows what would be the greatest storm on record for Iowa.  Cedar Rapids has had its worst flood ever and worst thunderstorm ever in the last fifteen years.  It is way past time for a powerful blizzard.

17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Meanwhile the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the I-44 corridor with a historic winter storm next week.

Yesterday the Euro had this strong system hitting Minneapolis.  This morning it's Oklahoma to St. Louis.  Models appear to have very little grasp of this system for now.

The Tuesday system is looking like it may be a dud for us, but late next week into next weekend looks much more promising.

I finished with a very solid 1.00" of rain.  My December total is 2.01".

I picked up a decent 0.32" today.

The big system Sun-Wed was looking good for another 2" here, but a westward shift has pushed the heavier rain into central Iowa.  I'm hoping for an inch.

To be honest, as much as I love heavy snow, this December has been pretty nice.  No blowing or back-straining shoveling, no bundling up, can wear Crocs outside, etc.  I actually kinda liked yesterday's light rain event.  Sure, I'll geek out the next time a big snowstorm approaches, but if this continued all winter, I would not hate it.  I guess this is what happens when you approach 50 years old.

Yesterday's system put 0.33" in my gauge.

You guys have a good memory.  I can't remember any weather events before high school (I'm 49).

Hit 55º here today.  It was very nice and I was able to get more garden prep done.

Tonight's rain looks pretty meager, probably just enough to wet the pavement.

14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

I recorded 10.5".  Sadly, there has not been a single 6-inch snow event, in December + before Xmas, since that 2009 storm.

19 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Youtube needs to change it's name to Hypetube.  Seems like every video (weather forecast related especially) is overly hyped, especially by the video title or vid graphic.  I get that each youtuber is trying to make their vids pop for views, but it's really dumbing down the site.  

You should watch Eric Snodgrass's daily videos (Nutrien Ag Solutions).  He's great.  He knows his sh*t and has good presentation skills.  I'm not sure how detailed he will get once we start getting big winter storms, but he is based in Illinois so he has a lot of interest in our area/region.

Snodgrass YouTube link

About an inch of wet snow fell here last night and this morning, so I'm up to 5" this season.

18 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Euro shows a foot of snow for Hawkeye and much of the Iowa crew late next weekend.  Looks like the next system of note to watch.  GFS and others show something in that time frame as well.  Perhaps our 2nd storm thread of the new season incoming?

Just a day ago models were cutting off a big upper low in the southwest US.  Today they are shooting the energy eastward through the midwest.  We'll likely see it flop all over the place through mid next week.

I really don't mind a warm first part of December.  I still have garden prep to do and last week's surprise 4" of snow put that on hold.  Most of the snow is gone, but I'm waiting for the rest to melt.

Today's wave is a bust, snow-wise.  It's weak and it's too warm.

The deeper-than-expected snow has really cratered the temp early in the week.  A few days ago, the early-week highs were going to be in the 30s.  Instead, we are struggling to get out of the teens.  Tonight we are expecting single digits.  We haven't risen above freezing since last Thursday.

I still have some garden and garage winter prep to do.  It will have to wait til we thaw out.

This system exceeded the model predictions.  I finished with a real nice 4.1 inches of snow from 0.34" of liquid.  The heaviest snow fell in the 3-4am period, when I was asleep, but some decent fluffy stuff lingered after sunrise.

Just a couple days ago this was looking like a weak nothingburger, maybe up to an inch in spots.

Two consecutive days below freezing, combined with overnight timing, should aid the accumulation.

All models today have shifted north and wetter, so DVN has expanded the advisory up through Cedar Rapids.  We could get up to 3 inches.

Terry Swails posted this in a recent blog post.  Southeast Iowa is now 20-25" of rain below average since April 2022.  Thanks to a couple big rain events in northern Illinois last summer, there is a near 30" difference between Ottumwa and Rockford.

We are currently getting our first light snow of the season as a weak wave moves through ahead of the main system.  Regarding the main system tonight, some of the models this morning are a bit wetter and north, so we could get a couple inches.

It's looking good for our first snow of the season Saturday night into Sunday morning.  We might be able to whiten the ground just a bit if the northern models are right.

I still have several pots of flowers outside because it has been so mild (I put them in the garage during cold nights), but it certainly appears my garden season will fully end next week.  I need the neighbors' oak tree to start dumping its leaves so I can collect them before the arctic blast arrives.