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Posts posted by hawkeye_wx
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Watches have gone up for my area. It's looking good for 6+".
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13 minutes ago, andyhb said:
The wave in between the first system and the one we’ve been tracking is now too deep/amplified as well. There’s no moisture leftover for that one to be the big storm.
Storms with so many moving parts like this tend to be very iffy.
That's what I immediately noticed. The Thursday wave is much stronger this run, which totally blows up the late-week potential. Last night's run was much flatter with this wave.
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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:
Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday.
Yeah, our local mets have been talking down the event as well as it trended southeast. However, that will reverse today.
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On this morning's GFS, ridging builds into the west coast region, which shoves the trough farther east. Meanwhile, the Canadian went the opposite way, anchoring the trough in the pacnw, which allows the storm to cut farther nw.
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The model trend is quite favorable for my area. The initial wave of snow to the west is inching more northeast and the main wave to the southeast is inching more northwest. The 06z Euro has Cedar Rapids up to several inches.
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FWIW, the ICON model, which seems to perform similarly to other models, also shows a similar blizzard late next week, just a bit farther north.
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It's probably safe to throw the early NAM runs in the trash. The global models are much farther south with the upper low.
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17 minutes ago, andyhb said:
Meanwhile the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the I-44 corridor with a historic winter storm next week.
Yesterday the Euro had this strong system hitting Minneapolis. This morning it's Oklahoma to St. Louis. Models appear to have very little grasp of this system for now.
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The Tuesday system is looking like it may be a dud for us, but late next week into next weekend looks much more promising.
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I finished with a very solid 1.00" of rain. My December total is 2.01".
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I picked up a decent 0.32" today.
The big system Sun-Wed was looking good for another 2" here, but a westward shift has pushed the heavier rain into central Iowa. I'm hoping for an inch.
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To be honest, as much as I love heavy snow, this December has been pretty nice. No blowing or back-straining shoveling, no bundling up, can wear Crocs outside, etc. I actually kinda liked yesterday's light rain event. Sure, I'll geek out the next time a big snowstorm approaches, but if this continued all winter, I would not hate it. I guess this is what happens when you approach 50 years old.
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Yesterday's system put 0.33" in my gauge.
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You guys have a good memory. I can't remember any weather events before high school (I'm 49).
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Hit 55º here today. It was very nice and I was able to get more garden prep done.
Tonight's rain looks pretty meager, probably just enough to wet the pavement.
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14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:
Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009. 8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa. At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.
I recorded 10.5". Sadly, there has not been a single 6-inch snow event, in December + before Xmas, since that 2009 storm.
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19 hours ago, cyclone77 said:
Youtube needs to change it's name to Hypetube. Seems like every video (weather forecast related especially) is overly hyped, especially by the video title or vid graphic. I get that each youtuber is trying to make their vids pop for views, but it's really dumbing down the site.
You should watch Eric Snodgrass's daily videos (Nutrien Ag Solutions). He's great. He knows his sh*t and has good presentation skills. I'm not sure how detailed he will get once we start getting big winter storms, but he is based in Illinois so he has a lot of interest in our area/region.
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1/8-1/10 Potential Winter Storm
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most. I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range. They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids. I think 5-8 is more realistic.