Jump to content

hawkeye_wx

Members
  • Posts

    5,909
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by hawkeye_wx

  1. 21 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

    DVN all in with 7-12" forecast for the QCA.  Southeast portions of the cwa are now in danger of some mixing/dry slot issues, but should still do pretty well there.

    I would strongly lean toward the 7" for most.  I'm surprised they put 12" as a possible high end of the range.  They currently have 6-11 for Cedar Rapids.  I think 5-8 is more realistic.

    • Like 1
  2. 13 minutes ago, andyhb said:

    The wave in between the first system and the one we’ve been tracking is now too deep/amplified as well. There’s no moisture leftover for that one to be the big storm.

    Storms with so many moving parts like this tend to be very iffy.

    That's what I immediately noticed.  The Thursday wave is much stronger this run, which totally blows up the late-week potential.  Last night's run was much flatter with this wave.

    857673091_trend-ecmwf_full-2024010612-f120.500hv.conus(1).gif.fdb6605b0e2d683de9e5642d70206a41.gif

  3. 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

    Ironic. Just yesterday our chief met where I work was talking about how it's trending east and he was expecting snow totals over southern Wisconsin to decrease enough that he could cancel the "Alert Day" for Tuesday.

    Yeah, our local mets have been talking down the event as well as it trended southeast.  However, that will reverse today.

  4. There has been a significant shift/expansion nw on the GEFS mean... Cedar Rapids has gone from 3" a day ago to now 8".  The op run only has 5" here, so this suggests there may be room for even more nw shift.  Concurrently, the Chicagoland lakeshore has been cut back quite a bit.

    image.thumb.png.4ebdd6b23e8ed529ac64cb193c0d53d3.png

    • Like 1
    • Sad 1
  5. The potential of the late-week storm is big.  The 18z GFS 500 mb setup is phenomenal and shows what would be the greatest storm on record for Iowa.  Cedar Rapids has had its worst flood ever and worst thunderstorm ever in the last fifteen years.  It is way past time for a powerful blizzard.

    image.thumb.png.1ad29e3a3b93d97d4442482964a2df59.png

    • Like 2
    • Weenie 1
  6. 17 minutes ago, andyhb said:

    Meanwhile the 12z Euro absolutely hammers the I-44 corridor with a historic winter storm next week.

    Yesterday the Euro had this strong system hitting Minneapolis.  This morning it's Oklahoma to St. Louis.  Models appear to have very little grasp of this system for now.

    • Like 2
  7. To be honest, as much as I love heavy snow, this December has been pretty nice.  No blowing or back-straining shoveling, no bundling up, can wear Crocs outside, etc.  I actually kinda liked yesterday's light rain event.  Sure, I'll geek out the next time a big snowstorm approaches, but if this continued all winter, I would not hate it.  I guess this is what happens when you approach 50 years old.

    • Like 3
    • Haha 1
  8. 14 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

    Sure miss big December storms like this one 14 years ago today in 2009.  8-12" for the QC, about a foot for much of central and eastern Iowa.  At least we have events like this to look back on and reminisce lol.

    I recorded 10.5".  Sadly, there has not been a single 6-inch snow event, in December + before Xmas, since that 2009 storm.

    • Sad 2
  9. 19 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

    Youtube needs to change it's name to Hypetube.  Seems like every video (weather forecast related especially) is overly hyped, especially by the video title or vid graphic.  I get that each youtuber is trying to make their vids pop for views, but it's really dumbing down the site.  

    You should watch Eric Snodgrass's daily videos (Nutrien Ag Solutions).  He's great.  He knows his sh*t and has good presentation skills.  I'm not sure how detailed he will get once we start getting big winter storms, but he is based in Illinois so he has a lot of interest in our area/region.

    Snodgrass YouTube link

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
×
×
  • Create New...