mahantango#1

Wow it must be very dry down there. I guess I should count my blessings, with all the rain we had up here. I know one thing. I'm tired of weed wacking. I never weed walked so much as this summer since towards the end of June.

Grass is growing rapidly here. I mowed Friday, today doesn't look like I mowed.

Dewpoint here is 68

About what time tomorrow will the Rains be here? I got to plow my potatoes out with a tractor. I don't need them to get wet.

.20 rain from last nights storms.

Tomorrow:

58 this morning.

.09 here. The carpet and tile guys might be on the something. NWS took a big hit on their forecast, unless something happens later.

I guess we'll see the results when we total it all up.

Carpet and tile guys: Today’s rainfall has not been handled particularly well by model guidance. The timing has been all over the place as well as the amount. It appears as of this morning that much of today’s rainfall will come during the first half of today. Expect a dreary and damp start to this Thursday with rain and embedded thunder moving to the north of an area of low pressure. The warm front stays to our south, so while it will be humid, it won’t be that warm today. Highs will be in the mid-70s. Rainfall amounts are tricky to forecast but right around 0.25″ seems fair for most. The rain should exit our eastern counties by mid-afternoon and late-day clearing is expected. Tonight will be mostly clear and comfy with lows in the mid-60s. NWS:Rain and thunderstorms before 3pm, then rain likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 4pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 72. Calm wind becoming west around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. A big discrepancy... still.

Picked up .02 from the so called t storm.

Sky getting dark I hear thunder looks like I'm in for a thunderstorm.

The carpet and tile guys are going for a 1/4in total tomorrow. My NWS Has 1/2-3/4 for tomorrow. A big difference.

66 here.

.54 rain overnight.

NWS says some 3+ amounts are possible SPC currently places the southwest half of PA in a MRGL risk of severe weather this evening. However, the bigger threat may be locally excessive rain across southeast PA. An anomalous southerly low level jet linked to a mid level shortwave lifting across the Eastern Grt Lks is progged to advect pwats of around 2 inches into southern PA this evening, overrunning the advancing warm front and setting the stage for thunderstorms with torrential downpours and the potential of locally heavy rainfall. Large scale forcing ahead of the mid level shortwave, combined with anomalous pwats, supports widespread POPs in the 80-100pct range this evening. However, the threat of locally excessive rainfall appears focused over the southeast counties, where the 00Z HREF suggests localized amounts of 3+ inches are possible between 00Z-08Z.

I don't know if it means anything, but this morning and still continuing this afternoon. There are a lot of ants moving their eggs out of a flowerbed that sits in a lower location to a new location that is about 5ft. Higher about 70ft. away from the original location. So I Googled this. It says they could be moving to avoid heavy rain. I never noticed this before. So I checked my NWS forecast. It says by Tuesday eve I could see 3in. Of rain by then. So maybe the ants are expecting more than that. I guess we'll see what happens till then.

Where I'm at I'm in pretty good shape. But the creek is starting to get low again (but not as low as its been) but thats typical for the summer season

My NWS forecast has not budged for Sunday. They're pretty steadfast.

It's the element of surprise

Yes, maybe a complete flip, just like winter storms. There always last to get on board, when snow comes from the south.

NWS tends to disagree,

Picked up .10 from a thunderstorm.

Things have definitely turned dryer this week. Wonder if severe storms will materialize later today.

66 was the low here.