From our good friend DT:
WINTER FORECAST2024-25 PREVIEWhttps://youtu.be/_eP1DiDHCYg
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SUMMARY
This is a long video -about 28 minutes but it moves pretty quick and there are lots of images in it. I start out reviewing the snow drought which has been pretty bad and WHY that has been occurring.. The last winter featured a very strong El Nino event. Before that we had three consecutive La Nina winters ( 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23)
FACT -over the last 32 years there have only had seven Winters where the equatorial Pacific has seen normal conditions.
The CONSENSUS FORECAST calls a Weak to Moderate La Nina but the data looks quite weak and there's a really good chance La Nina might not form at all.
So I look at what happens if we have a weak La Nina and how it is significantly colder and stormier when compared to a moderate or strong La Nina.
Then I look at what happens if there is No La Nina OR if La Nina ends by JAN 1. If that is the case the probability is much higher that the central and eastern US will see a near normal winter .