mahantango#1

57 for the high an 19 for the low today. Hopefully this ice pack will melt away and it won't be so cold. There is about an inch at some places, but most is melted away.

50 high an low was 16 today

This is weather related. People will disagree with this (not all) people think all Robin's leave and head south. But being out doors and observing, some Robin's stay here throughout the fall and winter. I have heard and seen them throughout the fall and winter. In the fall and winter they stay in flocks 15-20 or more. In the fall and winter they fly high in the sky and stay in the trees. When the time is right in the spring that flock will come down to the ground to search for worms. Then they split from the flock status. Then they are mated up with another Robin to breed and raise their young. Yesterday afternoon there was a flock of at least 20 Robin's down on the ground at my place (where the creek flooded the bottom land and receded) looking for worms. Could this be a sign that maybe just maybe that winter is soon over?

Letting go of a passion, any passion is that we pursued all our lives and seen circumstances beyond our control to make it unenjoyable is hard.

Top of the Mahantango mountain encased in ice

But not here ..yet

Stating to freeze here temp 31 2.27 rain since yesterday.

The ice just broke loose on the Mahantango Creek have 1 66 rain so far.

I have plenty of room here

Yes don't know what to expect tomorrow morning wind is still out of the south here.

Temp is falling 35 now after a high of 40

Rain so far .92

My high temp is supposed to be 40 today. A few days ago it was supposed to be 46. So a definite downward trend in temps. Currently 34. I wonder if we will be headed to ice sooner then the NWS says we will.

Typical for them. I wonder if their office has the least warnings and advisory issued.

What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa?

Thoughts from DT: The operational GFS model for the past few days has been trying to drive the cold front rapidly through New England, into the northern half of the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday, and into New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, northern Virginia, West Virginia, on Friday. The result would be rain changing to heavy snow and ice in much of Pennsylvania, New York State, and New England (which seems like a good probability). Undoubtedly, even coastal New England is going to see significant ice as well as New York City, New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania Thursday night into Friday morning. And because the GFS model is so aggressive with the cold air it actually allows the rain change to sleet and freezing rain in most of Maryland. the Eastern portions of West Virginia and the northern half of Virginia during the day on Friday February 4. If that were to happen then they would be a tremendous ice storm in Southern New England most of Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, NYC, and Southeast New York. the ice would change to snow and there would be significant ice buildup and snow accumulations on top of the ice in the northern half of New England most of New York State and Northwest Pennsylvania would see all snow. Indeed, this is exactly what the operational GFS model has been showing for the past few days. But there is a problem with this particular kind of scenario. It has to do with the development of waves of LOW pressure tracking along the front in a SW to NE direction — from Arkansas to Tennessee to Virginia to the Delmarva on Thursday and Friday. As a general rule, when LOW pressure tracking along of front in SW to NE direction, it is hard to get the cold air that is located Northeast of the surface LOW pressure to advance the Southward. You have to wait until the LOW pressure area is clear as the region. Only then will the cold front sweeps in, temperatures will drop and the precipitation comes to an end

Went to Sunbury, pa. Today. While in Sunbury by the river around 11 this morning the temp on my car was 22 I got out of Sunbury about a mile and a half on top of a hill on rt 147 the temp went to 28. It amazement me the temp difference location to location. And I know that ground must be really cold that's its limiting the melting during the day.

Hit 40 today now that sun went down 28. Seems very little melting with that ice pack we have.

I didn't see any yet from him. But your right those start times are critical!

So will there be freezing rain from this. Or just rain an maybe a coating of snow

DT says the gfs is wrong. He Says with the 2nd low moving sw to ne the south winds won't let the artic front push south

Is that when I-78 was shutdown?

Watching the weather on tv and read NWS forecast lows for last night said it wouldn't nearly as cold last night as Sunday night. It is 6 right now and yesterday morn it was 4 so 2 degrees is not nearly as cold.

well MAYBE just Maybe this one will score the coup. It has to be right sometime. Even a broken clock is right 2x a day.

4 this morning.