Hilton01

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Now Tellicowx may say that this includes sleet and he is right, but let's just enjoy the pretty colors for now. 

Even the minuscule pretty gray burying knox county! 

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There may be 1" of liquid equivalent falling in the form of ice, sleet and snow in west TN.  Also working into middle TN as well...

Remember the good days years ago when snow in middle and west tn usually meant good things for east tn..  Rarely seems to happen that way anymore.

15 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Just having some fun.

AO/NAO remaining negative, MJO heading into favorable phases, and the GFS dancing with record cold has the stock trending up.

Maybe we can pull off a Reddit style takeover if we all start short selling the warmth?

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Your grass wasn’t covered on Christmas Eve this year?


.

No, a mile east, yes.

24 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

That's a nice snow island right over my house ^

And a nice snow hole right over mine, as always.  Here in extreme west knox county I have not seen the grass covered in 2 years.

16 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Margie!!! She was fun to watch. Those were the days buddy !

Next up Happy Hour with......errrrr I mean weather with Margie.

Only a very few mixed flurries and rain in extreme west knox county.

Just from radar looks light there might even be at least snow in the air on the valley floor(Knoxville) when it comes though?? Thoughts?

5 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 @weathertree4u we have come full circle

 

and are now only a couple few short weeks from leaving the 1/10th of the total circle/pie (ummm pie) that constitutes our season of not summer.  

Just think, then we once again enter the never ending other season the Tn Valley  experiences;  Summer! 

Damnit man I gotta move before it’s too late.

3 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Last post I am doing on this subject. I wasnt saying I found fault with what you or Jax had posted; I was saying that realistically, for me, with my experience looking at things, I was confused. Will go back to reading and not posting lest we get into another back and forth. Goodness. 

Wxtree, I hope you do not stop posting.  I enjoy reading your posts comments thoughts etc..  Very often, your posts, and the reply’s that are given, help me to better understand things. So thank you for that. We all know it is so very easy to misinterpret meaning tone intent etc. in another’s written text in these type of forums/formats and I am sure, after reading the posts,  that that is all this is.  So let’s all stay here keep posting be friends and get along! For if we can not do that, how can we ever expect it to snow in the Tn valley again! 

15 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Mr. Kevin

There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr):

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967

 

Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT.

Also see:

 

Sadly??  Sounds like the perfect way to be!

45 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Had quite a shake from that earthquake. That was the 2nd one in almost the exact same spot in as many days.

Today’s was felt, and heard, easily here in West knox.

Meanwhile, the Tennessee Valley area, specifically Knoxville, has decided to simplify things greatly, in fact by half!  From now and forevermore *** Knoxville will recognize only 2 meteorological seasons;  Summer!, and not summer. For those of you sick of not summer, worry not, for Summer! can and often does begin in as few as 4 short more weeks!

Note:

*** forevermore   meaning until it becomes necessary, because of the weather, to reinstate additional meteorological seasons, if necessary as soon as next week, (or never).

On 1/4/2020 at 12:26 AM, John1122 said:

00z GFS has no Scandinavian ridge.  Transient cold shots, mostly potential record highs. Hopefully we can get out of the ditch in the next two weeks.  If not, it's probably time to completely re-evaluate winter in this part of the world and assume we now have the climate of Central Gulf coast states 20 years ago.  Doesn't mean we can get cold or snow any more, just means it will not be a given that we will get snow in winter. 

“it's probably time to completely re-evaluate winter in this part of the world and assume we now have the climate of Central Gulf coast states 20 years ago.”

Well said! Could not agree with this more. Hard to deny the changes that are happening, we all see them in our region (and many other regions as well for that matter).especially in winter.  Climate variability, GW, just subtle changes, or maybe just an “off” climate cycle of 30 or 40 years then a switch up, who knows.  But, it can not be denied, at least in the relatively, extremely short period of Earth’s history/evolution/record keeping  period we call 20-30 years or maybe longer, that our regions weather has changed and will continue to do so. Unfortunately for most of us that deprives us of one of our great joys of life! Oh well, it is only a matter of time and patience until we see real snow again. I think.

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

If you think about where we were 25 years ago, it is pretty impressive.  I think the problem is that a model has built in biases.  In other words, during the years that programming was written...it is only going to be as good as what we know then OR what is driving the weather then.  If a new driver comes onto the scene, it might make a a particular version of modeling obsolete until the programing is corrected.  I know there are things that are being discussed now that were rarely discussed when I first started doing this as a hobby.   It is pretty crazy to think that heights over Indonesia impact weather here.  So, I think some of this is just understanding the weather well enough to write programming for it.  Those wx models are only as good as the physics and data being placed into them.  And as far as I know, they don't adapt.  Strong AI would adapt and "think."    What can be simulated on modeling right now is mind boggling.  Each little eddy and height fall can now be modeled across the globe.  But what we aren't able to solve is how the Butterfly Effect changes things.   Our understanding of the stratosphere(SSWs), wind current reversals(QBO), and the MJO will only serve to make modeling better.  The tricky thing is what happens, for example,  if a model is a bit to heavily dependent on the MJO and it ceases to be the driver?  And that is partly what makes me suspicious of the MJO...if it is incorrectly modeling the MJO, it might we way off.  OTH, it has been whipping the GFS/GEFS for about four weeks.  

I get it I get. I guess I see Met/atmospheres  as one of the last unknowns to man.  Always wondered if a scale type model might help in some way, maybe very limited, but maybe not. I don’t know,  just not sure computers are ever going to model a earff that big, atmosphere that big, both  rotating, both the affected by moon and sun and countless millions of variables happening every second millions of time and there both rotating a different speeds and directions at places, and it’s tilted and that butterf... never mind I’m gonna stop there my thumb hurts. We might get better by using what we have and making it better but it only ever going to better at what purpose it serves now. I’ve long though of a physical model. Would not be easy or perfect but who knows where met might going?

Or here’s a thought and please anyone feel free to correct me if I am off the mark. I have only been reading here and weather in general for about 10 -15 years. I have only become to have a basic understanding of modeling and how they work and how they are interpreted (seems most off they are interpreted to not do what the model  says but a met can still use his or her skill to interpret the way they choose, but anyway).

But, at the same time, for years on and off, I have heard talk of how much better the models used to be, at least from 10 days in, maybe more then 10? I don’t recall hearing for certain. But without a doubt, I’ve heard for years that the models  were much more reliable from 10 days in.  So that brings me to the point.  Is there another variable, maybe unknown but at least misunderstood, to our earff/atmosphere, that were don’t know if or understand yet?  And if so, what was going on when the models (not sure exactly when, 1980-1990s??, I still here people talk about watching storms that varified for days before hand, 93 as ex. I believe? were acting as a better, more reliable tool to mets (and to all others on here as well)? Again, I know, I know! The flogging may now commence!

Please understand, it is never my intention to upset or make light of anyone or anything weather related ( or anything human related  for that matter) this is directed at no one, only questions I have and thoughts I think about. Thank you all and I would welcome thoughts and feedback, but preferably not the flogging.

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we are good out to about 8 days in terms of actually specific features, and even then it is tough at eight days.  Actual weather patterns can be identified out to about 3-4 weeks, and four weeks is pushing it.  Seasonal forecasting will be the Holy Grail of my lifetime.  I have been pretty warm in my discussions since early December.  I get excited like the rest when modeling throws us a nice run...but generally there have been few indices or modeling that has shown anything but a very warm pattern.  I think most of us are here to find winter wx patterns, so we dig around even in this warm pattern and look for cold signals.  That said, I am not sure I want to be around once we have strong AI, and it can predict seasonal forecasting to near exact metrics.  If we have a computer that can do that, then we likely have other technology that we don't want around that is much smarter than humans.  LOL.  You know one thing I have considered and it may be banter worthy...there are places where cloud seeding takes place.  I know for a fact that it takes place in the Mountain West.   I have seen the machines that do it.  I do wonder as that becomes more prominent, how that will change our weather patterns and if that is occurring now.   Emptying the air of its moisture surely has downstream impacts.  

Just seems like year after year there are no long term lasting model improvements. That is, of course, unless we are getting better by learning to read and interpret faulty models/science (art/instinct) which I do realize is a huge part of successful meteorology however not do much a valid part of science. Again, no knocking intended, hope to be here when the person or team makes a break through. Or when we realize this is as good as we can do with such a random volotile dynamic variable unlimited system! Oh good old planet earff!

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I think we are good out to about 8 days in terms of actually specific features, and even then it is tough at eight days.  Actual weather patterns can be identified out to about 3-4 weeks, and four weeks is pushing it.  Seasonal forecasting will be the Holy Grail of my lifetime.  I have been pretty warm in my discussions since early December.  I get excited like the rest when modeling throws us a nice run...but generally there have been few indices or modeling that has shown anything but a very warm pattern.  I think most of us are here to find winter wx patterns, so we dig around even in this warm pattern and look for cold signals.  That said, I am not sure I want to be around once we have strong AI, and it can predict seasonal forecasting to near exact metrics.  If we have a computer that can do that, then we likely have other technology that we don't want around that is much smarter than humans.  LOL.  You know one thing I have considered and it may be banter worthy...there are places where cloud seeding takes place.  I know for a fact that it takes place in the Mountain West.   I have seen the machines that do it.  I do wonder as that becomes more prominent, how that will change our weather patterns and if that is occurring now.   Emptying the air of its moisture surely has downstream impacts.  

Just seems like year after year there are no long term lasting model improvements. That is, of course, unless we are getting better by learning to read and interpret faulty models/science (art/instinct) which I do realize is a huge part of successful meteorology however not do much a valid part of science. Again, no knocking intended, hope to be here when the person or team makes a break through. Or when we realize this is as good as we can do with such a random volotile dynamic variable unlimited system! Oh good old planet earff!

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not at all regarding the AMO.  Just saying we have 5-10 years before the AMO flips.   We have completed about thirty years of a forty year pattern.  What month and year that cycle actually flips is not something any model or any person can know for sure.  Climate cycles are extraordinarily fickle.  Essentially, we are trying to predict something out of chaos.  Our weather models are quite good out to about 8 days now regarding specific features.  They are also quite good at picking out pattern trends to about 3-4 weeks.  The best we can do regarding the AMO is to look at past data and use it to forecast when the flip occurs.  So the best crystal ball that we have is the climate record.  The crystal ball that would predict when the AMO would flip with complete specificity is not in the shop, because we have never had it to begin with.  Back to chaos, the one thing that can help is in fact "chaos."  A pattern that looks locked into place is likely going to change.  On a micro-scale, none of us want to be in the snow bullseye ten days out.  Why?  We know that is going to change.  At a macro-scale, it is probably easier to say a warming trend is coming, but we can't predict the specifics because we don't have the technology to do that yet past 8 days.   So, we can say a big-warm up is coming but still miss cold front embedded in a warm pattern.

I’ve said this before and got considerable flak back but I still this we are a long way off from even much more then playing Plinko and/or educated guessing beyond ~10 days models output. I do feel that at some point a major breakthrough will occur that allows us to be “better” understand and begin to better predict/asses. I know I will get some backlash but this is directed at no one, just atmospheric understanding. I appreciate all of you here, read every word written and am greatful for all your willingness to share.

all science starts at infancy, (with people) even in today’s tech world

I still remember my meteorology classes I tool at UT (there were only 2 at the time but I made sure to take them) the one thing that the prof kept saying all year  (he was U of Wis. trained) that really stood out was that the field of meteorology was in bad need of intellectual as well as technological breakthroughs. Not just better ways of doing what we’re doing( i.e model upgrades), but of rethinking and reevaluating what we are doing. So anyway I’ve opened my self up to another round of abuse, but please understand this is directed at no one at all, just human umdestanding or struggle to understand. Thanypu all here and I am serious when I say I read every word every one of you contributes. Hopefully no hard feelings.

1 hour ago, BlunderStorm said:

Currently 40 here with a steady rain.  Won't be long now... 

, to quote Lorana Bobitts!

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That was the worst...Saturday school and losing Spring Break.  Fortunately kids now go an extra 30 mins per day now in most systems and bank 14-15 days...maybe 3-4 of those get used for professional development.  But I seriously hated going to school on Saturday.  Teachers back then would schedule tests on those days to make sure everyone would come to school.  So, on top of having to go to school on Saturday, I am having to study for a test on Friday night.  In 85, we had some Saturdays even get snowed out I think.  I remember sitting there taking a test on one Saturday and just watching it snow outside - like 2-3" on the ground.  In '85, my dad had a business trip to St. Louis.  He raced one of those storms home.  There was snow on snow on snow from mid January through almost the end of February.  We had drifts of 2-3'.   Seemed like every storm over performed with tons of NW flow types events even in the valley.  

I remember it all very well, at times during that stretch there were ice-sickles close to 2 feet long hanging from house roofs. 

On 11/13/2019 at 5:31 PM, Carvers Gap said:

John, I am always thankful for your records.  2014 missed my back yard.  I had to go check the obs thread.  LOL.  Fortunately I posted there.  Missed on Sandy as well.  Good find on the 93 obs.   That turned out to be a cold winter as you have noted.  That is the winter that I always forget was cold.  I have been asking folks in this area if they remember getting an inch or more is snow this early...it has been a long time - I think.  I was was living at Papermill in Knoxville in ‘93...so I have no idea if Kingsport cashed in.  Seems like lately we have been getting more than the airport...For many years, Kingsport was always much lower than the surrounding county, partly due to the river I am sure and partly due to industry.  These days we seem to be on par.  Now, SW VA where @1234snow lives and @Daniel Boone and @BlunderStorm...that is a money pot up there.  Carter’s Valley northward is just gold.  I spent the winter of 85 in Carter’s Valley.  Twenty something below zero and snow on the ground for months.  I can remember sitting in Saturday snowday make-up school watching it snow!!!

I also remember having to go to school during spring break to make up missed days that winter in Knox.  Good times growing up, and then it's all been down hill snowwise (for the most part) from there on, expectations too high too young after that.

I don't know what it means but I have never seen the song birds so completely changed into their full mating colors so early in the year.  Early winter?  Early spring?  They are stunningly brilliant right now whatever it means.

MBY (west knox) totals for Monday:

.25 inches snow on deck

.50 inches of salt on road 

11 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

I think a lot of the problem is our expectations of how accurate a weather model should be. The advancements of modern technology have probably contributed to a lot of people expecting too much from weather models.  There’s no such thing as a perfect model, especially when you are dealing with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Computer models have improved over time, but I don’t expect any drastic changes to their accuracy in the foreseeable future. It seems to be a problem of diminishing returns.

That doesn’t mean the current state of weather modeling is “bad”. As my mathematical modeling professor once told me, “there’s no such thing as a bad model”.  Even the most simple weather model could provide you with useful information about the evolution of the atmosphere.  That’s pretty much the best we can do for now. Using models as a guide for how the atmosphere might evolve over time and combine that with our knowledge of how the weather in this area typically behaves during various conditions. It certainly isn't perfect, but at least  there is a decent level of predictability (unlike the perception that forecasts are "never right" based on social media comments). 

On the idea of using knowledge of our local climate, it is truly amazing how much collective knowledge this forum has about local weather patterns.  I think we all have great interest in learning how the local terrain impacts our weather. I'm constantly learning something new from this forum.

I think this is very close to the idea I was trying to express.  As with any scientific arena, advances are sometimes fast sometime slow.  I agree completely with the common idea that as technologically advanced as we are now, people expect that to carry over to forecasting the atmosphere.