Hilton01

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Here is what modeling has to contend with before or right after a system gets to MBY(and I am just talking stuff surrounding our continent):

1. Multiple mountain ranges (Sierra Nevadas, Rockies, Cumberland Plateau, and the Apps)

2. Four bodies of water(Pacific, Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and the Great Lakes)

3.  Air masses and precip systems which much travel over an entire continent before getting to our complex system of mountains, hills, valleys, etc

4.  A latitude where its default is rain and not snow for nine months out of the year.  The other three months...default is a mixed bag.

I really think on a larger scale the interaction of the Apps(especially the base of the southern Apps), warm/cold air masses rushing over the Plains, the Atlantic, and the GOM pose significant problems for even the best of sampled systems.   Timing is key.  Modeling the correct pressure at various levels of the atmosphere is also not easy.  By the time that system gets to our area, there are just a ton of variables which can change timing.  If the Apps were a lot longer(stretching to the GOM) or a lot shorter(ending in say PA), the steering currents which influence us would be much easier to model.  As it is, the base of the Apps causes systems to cut more sharply west at times.  Also, think if the Apps were not there.  Middle TN probably gets more snow because a system could actually cut where the Apps are now.  As is, the system has to go to one side if originating to the south.  There would be no CAD or downsloping.  Coastals would send much more precip our way.  I suspect winters would be a lot worse without the Apps.  One thing that wx models are much better at is actually identifying pieces of energy that will actually impact our region.  Wx models can spot wx in the western Pacific(see Jax's posts) and make pretty good guesses as to whether that impacts our weather.  Our AI is just not good enough to predict the chaos(butterfly effect stuff) that results down stream.  The are so much better than they used to be though.   And we need to remember, folks settled this area because the weather was not severe.  Winters are not as bad.  Summers are not as hot.  Plenty of precip though droughts in NE TN are not uncommon.  This region is requires mad skills and a thick skin, because it is easy to be wrong...a lot. 

It makes me think that at some point in the future (maybe the way way off future) mets are going to look back on the how, the methods, we are currently trying to apply and wonder what we were thinking.  I'm not sure the methods we are relying on are realistically capable of doing it.  I don't want anyone to misinterpret what I am trying to say, I am constantly amazed at what mets and many others on here are currently able to do using what we have now.  Just can't help thinking that at some point we will gain a different perspective, insight or understanding that will change the way we view and understand the atmosphere.  I am a teacher and nothing excites me more then to have a student who shows a genuine, internal interest in weather/meteorology and to wonder if she or he may play a roll in that process.

I get the difficulty modeling for an area as unfavorable (for snow) as ours is;  latitude, geography, microclimates, etc. but it seems to me that most modeling, most of the time, misses even the bigger factors for our area.  How many times a winter do we see situations like yesterday where even the major factors are miss-modeled or even flat out missed over time?  Gulf connection, L pressure location, L pressure formation, speed of air mass, etc. etc..  Fascinating to me to watch the evolution of each storm and to watch us (and by us I mean those of you with so much more understanding then myself!) combine modeling with expertise/knowledge to arrive at a sensible forecast.  Grateful to all of you here who have the knowledge and understanding, and the willingness to share it, to at least allow me to stand on the sidelines and observe your input and thoughts.  Thanks to all of you!

6 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Did anyone on the east side of the state feel the earthquake this week????  

Woke me up in west Knox area.

15 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

As Holston River Rambler said at the very beginning of this thread...

"Fate often spares an undoomed man, if his courage is good." --Beowulf, Book VIII, lines 572-3.

Also been said

"those who have been screwed before are often screwed again."