RogueWaves

I think your post over there in his thread was dead-on for Chicago, it's a 50-50 dice toss going forward after such a snowy pre-season. My gut tells me that while ENSO/SST/Oscillations are indeed less than stellar verbatim, some items he mentions may indeed come through in the end. One of significance being the MJO. Notably here, 4 of the last 7 Novembers have had BIG snow totals against my 1.2" long-term avg. Sometimes in one huge storm, other times in multiple lesser events. During that same 7 years, 3 Dec's have been complete "no shows", but I've also scored 3 huge Dec's with 2019 looming as the "tie breaker" thus a microcosm of your analog list for Chi-town snowy winters. I won't say this December will make or break the entire winter, but it could go a long ways toward helping this winter stand out from the crowd.

SSW gone wrong, sigh..

Best case scenario is that a weaker lead wave could tug the thermal boundary south enough enough so the main wave ejects further south.

Yep, fun week even if we're not in the snowy side (most of us)

Let's keep dropping 10 or 12 mb off each storm as they track thru the Lakes. Eventually one of these will be cold enough to deliver the real-deal LES event. (may also erode the lakeshore to mby at the same time)

I guess with 2 storms in our general vicinity already (10/31 & 11/11), we get to sit on the sidelines for a bit.

..just 4 fun

Perhaps, but how often do you get to even see such wx model details in this corner of the world? Let alone by the Euro. GFS & NAM typically over blow scenarios left and right as we know. I smell a non-bust..

I can live with all 3 options. APX reminds that the energy driving this is still 1,000 miles away.

purdy

CFS reading you loud-n-clear there OHweather

One of his best wrt graphics and content. Some real seasons of yore for cold/snow in his analog list too. With 4 of 5 storm tracks favorable to The Lakes, calls for "snowverload" may not be an exaggeration.

ICON-ic snows!

GRR = "Meh" DTX = "stay tuned!" Wonder how many times we'll be here this upcoming winter?

Yep, zero shortage of action going forward. Just get some cold infusions and all things winter will get rolling. Personally, I like winter to set in and stay. Not a fan of the 7-10 day blast, followed by 4-6 weeks of ho-hum. I'll make use of this pattern reload period to finish up my holiday decorating, then I'm ready to see more of these:

GEFS hinting hard at return of Greenland Blocking. Would do wonders to get us back into temps cold enough to support more SN than RN. Let's hope it's onto something..

Just not for us further east. Nice Plains hit tho.

Cold seems lacking, with the GEM on the colder end of the spectrum, and thus painting a much better system with nice snow swath. I'll be shocked if the others come around to it's solution tbh. This entire period to finish Nov and into the first week of Dec is looking too warm for most of us S and/or east of C Wisco. If we can get lucky and score, you'll know we are the favored zone for winter action.

Get that track with a colder air mass = game on!

Hmm.. Euro picking up on the colder air and now just starting to hint at a swath of snow S Plains to Lwr Lakes next weekend. Appetizer to T-Day smorgasboard event?

/\ Now, just add cold and high-lat blocking that models haven't been reading well worth a crap from d10 range, and voila! We're in the game. Gonna double-down on what happened with Vet's Day storm. Heck. that wasn't seriously picked-up by models at this range. Don't think they even flashed an organized surface reflection, yet look where it trended. You'll have a thread soon. #goodtimes

Yeah, this just comes and sits on us. Doesn't seem too eager to warm up out there as my highs today were in the low 40's not long ago. Forecast dropped even since morning now expecting just 33F

I think his reasoning is more along the lines of the clash zone between warm waters east and arctic plunges west will make for stronger storms in between. Not unlike what just transpired. Also, he is only one of several calling for such. This fits well with what we've already seen wrt systems getting amped in and near the GL's. It's ofc been focused more northward as it's early yet. In the heart of winter months, it may well be that some strong systems end up tracking favorably for the OHV/Lwr Lakes. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. His earlier pre-lim forecast was calling for the blizzards more for the EC/New England if that makes anyone feel better? His recent final call, he adjusted that westward a bit as seen. Nobody has a crystal ball in LR seasonal forecasting, but the attempts to score with it have been improving little by little. Personally, early cold-n-snow around SMI will mean one of two things. Half the time it turns turd and flips warm/boring following (see last year, most strong Nino's, etc.), the other half continue the theme and end up being good winters, some even great winters. Nobody really knows until it's a wrap. Notice, he didn't just say run of the mill blizzards. He said BIG Blizzards! haha

Scored 15.2" here last November for 3rd all-time. Battle Creek just half a county west hit 24+ for #1 (records to 1895). This could go down as 2nd snowy November here after a long stretch without much of anything.

To wear while arm wrestling A-L-E-K for the primary storm track? Could both end up winners. '78 is Chicago's #2 all-time snowiest after all, barely beaten by '79