RogueWaves

Just not for us further east. Nice Plains hit tho.

Cold seems lacking, with the GEM on the colder end of the spectrum, and thus painting a much better system with nice snow swath. I'll be shocked if the others come around to it's solution tbh. This entire period to finish Nov and into the first week of Dec is looking too warm for most of us S and/or east of C Wisco. If we can get lucky and score, you'll know we are the favored zone for winter action.

Get that track with a colder air mass = game on!

Hmm.. Euro picking up on the colder air and now just starting to hint at a swath of snow S Plains to Lwr Lakes next weekend. Appetizer to T-Day smorgasboard event?

/\ Now, just add cold and high-lat blocking that models haven't been reading well worth a crap from d10 range, and voila! We're in the game. Gonna double-down on what happened with Vet's Day storm. Heck. that wasn't seriously picked-up by models at this range. Don't think they even flashed an organized surface reflection, yet look where it trended. You'll have a thread soon. #goodtimes

Yeah, this just comes and sits on us. Doesn't seem too eager to warm up out there as my highs today were in the low 40's not long ago. Forecast dropped even since morning now expecting just 33F

I think his reasoning is more along the lines of the clash zone between warm waters east and arctic plunges west will make for stronger storms in between. Not unlike what just transpired. Also, he is only one of several calling for such. This fits well with what we've already seen wrt systems getting amped in and near the GL's. It's ofc been focused more northward as it's early yet. In the heart of winter months, it may well be that some strong systems end up tracking favorably for the OHV/Lwr Lakes. It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility. His earlier pre-lim forecast was calling for the blizzards more for the EC/New England if that makes anyone feel better? His recent final call, he adjusted that westward a bit as seen. Nobody has a crystal ball in LR seasonal forecasting, but the attempts to score with it have been improving little by little. Personally, early cold-n-snow around SMI will mean one of two things. Half the time it turns turd and flips warm/boring following (see last year, most strong Nino's, etc.), the other half continue the theme and end up being good winters, some even great winters. Nobody really knows until it's a wrap. Notice, he didn't just say run of the mill blizzards. He said BIG Blizzards! haha

Scored 15.2" here last November for 3rd all-time. Battle Creek just half a county west hit 24+ for #1 (records to 1895). This could go down as 2nd snowy November here after a long stretch without much of anything.

To wear while arm wrestling A-L-E-K for the primary storm track? Could both end up winners. '78 is Chicago's #2 all-time snowiest after all, barely beaten by '79

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkQTUP7ZEWU&list=UUc9YCB6iO5jmBtQ6yALZMiQ&index=3&t=0s

You're gonna get owned this winter..

07/12z JMA said "go big or go home"! Sure wish there was a snowfall map to go along with

Should swap roles. Promote the NAM to Global status, and demote GFS to "inside 48 hrs"

Looking like it. That 17" death band I experienced was unforgettable. Has to rank at or near the top for best rates/lowest vis personally witnessed.

Depending on where your line is drawn for the "early start" threshold will make a difference in the outcome. For SMI (not including LES belt counties) I consider anything noteworthy before Dec 10th as qualifying. List of good early starters (post-70s era glory days) = 89-90, 95-96, 00-01, 04-05, 08-09, 09-10, 13-14 Not all early starters are a death knell "used to refer to the imminent destruction or failure of something"

iirc, GEFS had a hot hand last winter too. I'd lean on them over the OP any day

Eerily similar month in progress to Nov '13 when my work place was ground zero for a similar LES set-up 11/12/13. Analog para's are getting spooky.

GEFS seem to be somewhat correcting it's progressive bias, another good sign that this may just come back

12z GEM out to the 14th (h240) Eastern Lakes and upstate NY are buried. What we get isn't exactly chump change

haha can't imagine why??

Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely.

Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014.

..saved that for posterity. If only..

Here are some of the snowiest Octobers at Grand Rapids Michigan. Most went on to be good to in some cases great winters for cold-n-snow. '67 and '97 Nino's being the exception. 1967 8.4” 1925 7.5” 1989 5.8” 1917 3.0” 1962 2.6” 1997 2.6” 1992 2.4” 2006 2.1”

That's what holiday lights are for..