wolfie09

Time for some ice hockey? Haha Not yet but it's been cold enough to start freezing over my pond..

Little bit of improvement on the projected snowfall with 2”-3” “inching” its way towards me and obviously more towards Matt.. Temperatures and critical thicknesses will be marginally cold enough to support snow. Model consensus suggests that once precipitation starts and evaporation cools the air column, it will be cold enough to support snow in most locations. As a result, precipitation will start as a rain or snow mix, but then change over to snow. Warmer air aloft may change precipitation back to rain across southern and eastern portions of the cwa late in the night.

So whats the chances? haha I do like the HP out in front.. Active week ahead..

Not expecting much either way..

I think a lot has to do with the lake plain, kbgm cwa sits farther “inland “ away from the lake..

Fv3 more like the euro..

kbuf Thermal profiles continue to suggest that this precipitation will again fall as a mix of rain and snow, with rain at the onset...and again Tuesday with some daytime warming. Snow with this low could amount to several inches, but the rather fast forward speed of the low combined with deeper moisture just to our east should limit the overall snow. It will not be until after this surface low advances to our north, across New England that the deeper colder air flows over the Great Lakes with p-type becoming all snow. Under cold air advection Tuesday night and into Wednesday a northwest flow will drive lake effect snow bands across the western So. Tier, and areas downwind of Lake Ontario...along the southern Lake shoreline and Finger Lakes region. There is still some uncertainty to the upstream lake connection potential, but it would stand a fair chance that at some point both Lake Huron and Georgian Bay could add additional moisture such that moderate to heavy bands of lake effect snow become likely. The lake effect snow should peak late Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Will continue to mention both the synoptic snow Monday night/Tuesday...and the Lake Effect Snow Tuesday night and Wednesday in the HWO...with likely lake effect snow totaling more than synoptic snows The models have come to a different solution for Thursday night, this a shortwave deep across the South and within a long wave trough over the eastern US developing a surface low again to the lee of the Appalachians. If this solution pans out, the storm system will again bring synoptic snow and a little rain to the area Thursday night through Friday. Will have chance pops for this until better model continuity develops. Behind this storm system, northwest flow will again develop setting the stage for again lake effect snow down wind of the Eastern Great Lakes Saturday. Looking further ahead (just outside of this forecast period)... colder air in the wake of the aforementioned system will continue to build across our region and should nearly guarantee below normal temperatures for both Sunday and Monday with lake effect snows.

A little west and we have the track from 93? Lol

I wouldn't say a ton of rain lol Max temps at kfzy 33, with temps in the upper 20's to start..850s stay south for the most part..

Then 3 days later lol

Picked up a little less than 2” during the day, unfortunately a ton of graupel..Snow just starting to pick up again as new bands form..

Left behind energy?

Lake effect after this mon/tue system may be short lived as model are showing another storm moving up the east coast thurs/fri..

The eastern movement led by the NAM.. Nws Portland Last nights model runs trended more towards a coastal track and this is further supported by the 12 UTC NAM. The 00 UTC GFS ensemble and the 12 UTC NAM are very similar moving the low over Cape Cod and then along the Maine Coast. The 12 UTC GFS has continued its trend toward the coastal track...however the 12 UTC ECMWF remains the furthest west with a track across interior New England. The ECMWF track is not climatologically favored but can`t be discounted either.

Snow Squall Warning SNOW SQUALL WARNING NWS BUFFALO NY 434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018 NYC011-049-075-102211- /O.NEW.KBUF.SQ.W.0001.181110T2134Z-181110T2215Z/ 434 PM EST SAT NOV 10 2018 Cayuga County-Lewis County-Oswego County- The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Snow Squall Warning for... Southwestern Lewis County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 515 PM EST. * At 434 PM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located along a line extending from 20 miles northwest of Oswego to 7 miles north of Redfield, moving southeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts up to 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. * This includes Interstate 81 between exits 33 and 37. Locations impacted include... Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Highmarket and Mexico Point State Park.

Pretty much why the GFS show a mix of rain and snow, personally i dont care about surface temps, ill leav that up to the nam... Gfs does sneak 925 above freezing for a short period of time as well..

U need to be a able to smell the taint lol I have a feeling this one is going to be a mess... KBUF We could see a few rain showers late Monday afternoon across the Niagara Frontier on the leading edge of the upper level trough, but the bulk of the precipitation will come Monday night and Tuesday. Initially precipitation will be rain, and may continue as rain through a good part of Monday night as a tight baroclinic boundary forms over NYS/New England. Temperatures at 850 hPa will likely rise to just above 0C late Monday and early Tuesday over our eastern zones, before much colder air of -10C at 850 hPa presses across the CWA behind the surface low. In all thermal profiles suggest a mix of rain/snow...that may linger as rain longest to the east Monday night before transitioning to all snow late Monday night and Tuesday. This synoptic snow looks a bit more impressive than the recent event of Friday. Will mention the possibility of accumulating snows of several inches in the HWO for this event.

Models are in tremendous agreement wrt track but differ on thermal profiles.. Fv3 Continues to be in the snowy camp..

Good to hear because the gfs definitely has p-type issues and so does the Canadian lol

Not much change in the gfs. just a little west..

Looks like "showtime" tomorrow between 1pm-7pm before veering more northwesterly overnight..