wolfie09

Chilly night ahead, frost advisory issued.. ..FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a Frost Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Friday. * LOCATIONS...Oswego County. Locations well inland from lake Ontario. * TEMPERATURE...In the mid 30s.

..Mother Nature to Revisit Early August Temperatures... An anomalously strong sub tropical ridge (Bermuda High) centered over the Outer Banks of North Carolina will guarantee that our temperatures that average WELL above normal during this period... particular as we push into the new work week. To start with...the strength of the ridging is forecast to be 4 to 5 STD above normal for this time of year...and that equates to having a >30 year return interval. Daytime mercury readings that will reach into the 60s and lower 70s on Sunday will climb through the 70s to around 80 (western counties) for Columbus Day before fairly widespread 80s can be expected for Tuesday. The latter will flirt with record temperatures...which for Tuesday currently stand at 81 (1909) in Buffalo and 78 (1970) in Watertown. Rochester should be safe with their record for Tuesday at 88 (1949). The unusual warmth will be accompanied by generally dry weather...although a few showers cannot be ruled out on Sunday.

Hard to predict what the lakes will do..Look at the stats for kbuf during a weak el nino , look at the variability lol 5 years above avg, 7 years below and that's considered the "best" enso state lol For me i usually root for weak La nina, i like to get the northern jet more involved, we mis a lot to the south during el nino years...

At least it’s not dry, can always use the liquid.. Picked up about 1/3” of rain since last night..

We have had several bouts of heavy rain today, it’s over an inch liquid so far, picked up about 1/2” yesterday as well.. I had such wicked lightning last night that all my solar lights turned on haha, not sure I’ve seen that before..

So we now have a "Golden Snowdrift award"? lol (A little outdated, does not include last year)

Looks like we have some rain coming in the middle of the week..

Dropped down into the 30’s at the nearest wunderground station, several degrees colder then forecasted..I would think this has to be close to record territory, if Altmar actually kept records lol

Looks like an enjoyable weekend coming up!! Maybe some lake effect showers for some.. Northwesterly flow will usher in much cooler air, with 850MB temperatures plunging to around +5 or +6C. This will promote lake effect/upslope cloudiness southeast of the lakes, with possibly just enough low-level moisture left behind to produce a few showers through Saturday morning across these same areas. Drier air will continue to build in through the day Saturday. This combined with lowering inversion heights and diurnal influences will quickly shut off any precip by late Saturday morning, while also eroding away at the low-level cloud cover heading into Saturday afternoon. Much cooler and drier air advecting into the region behind the cold front will allow lows Friday night to drop back into the much more comfortable 50s Friday night, with some upper 40s for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Daytime highs on Saturday will struggle to climb above the lower to mid 60s, possibly not getting out of the upper 50s across some of the higher terrain. This will be quite the change from the mid-summer warmth and humidity of the previous week, and right on time for the arrival of astronomical autumn.

Eventually I would like to Once I get a little more set up.. Actually the Bennett’s bridge location is in NE Altmar..I’m pretty sure at one point they owned the 24 and 48 hr snowfall records for NY state.. I live just south of “Richland”

Super 8 huh? Lol I work in Pulaski right down the street..I live in the NW part of altmar, 6 miles ESE of Pulaski... I’ve been noticing a nice cooling trend over the last few runs on the LR GFS..

Looks like no rain from “Florence “ as models show it going south, Euro did well and never bit on major precipitation, different story for just south-east of ksyr-kuca..

Yup, GFS nailed this one imby, finished with 0.40” liquid...The Euro had 1-1.5” just hours before the event, precipitation almost always over done on the models, unless you live in the Mid-Atlantic..

Models already in full winter mode, having trouble with the northern extent of heavy precipitation as usual, could see anywhere from 1/4”-3” of liquid depending on model of choice..

Last night’s Euro for Sunday/Monday

Nice “potential “ soaking from post TS Gordon..

Long range euro (12z)

Looks like a pretty nice cool down to me, average temperatures still in the mid-upper 70”s, going to be an enjoyable several days weather wise...

SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV) - The summer of 2018 in Syracuse is now the most humid in at least 45 years! As of August 19th, Syracuse has felt dew points at or exceeding 70 degrees for 36 days! Dew point temperature is a way to measure the amount of moisture in the air. The higher the dew point the higher the moisture content in the air. In general, the higher the dew point the more uncomfortable it feels. While everyone has their own sense of what a ‘humid’ day is, most central New Yorkers notice it feeling humid when the dew point creeps into the mid 60s. Dew points in the 70s usually signals a change to more tropical-like conditions. Since 1997, the most days during the June through August period with a dew point of 70 or better prior to this summer was 32 days set in 2010 prior to this summer. The average over the past 20 years is 19 days...2018 has exceeded both! Even broken down into hours where the dew points have exceeded 70° is impressive. Syracuse averages 135 hours of 70°+ dew points a year. This summer (through August 19th) we are at 90 hours! The previous high was in 1973 with 343 hours which is far back as we have hourly records. That's about 4 times greater than normal and the most humid summer in at least 45 years! To put more perspective on this, Atlanta, known for its hot and humid summers, averages 570 hours with the dew point 70°+. So safe to say, this has been an Atlanta-like summer with regards to humidity at least! For as humid as it has been here in Syracuse it still pales in comparison to what it typically is like along the Gulf coast.... Houston: 3432 hours New Orleans: 4017 hours Miami: 4165 hours While it has been more humid this summer, Syracuse is still not ranked as one of the top 10 warmest summer's on record. As of August 19th we were ranked as 12th warmest with 11 days above 90 degrees. No daily record high temperatures have been set in Syracuse this summer. Guess it goes to show you, it's not the heat, it's the humidity

Next 7 days

Finished with about 3” of rain over the past 48hrs, most of that occurring yesterday afternoon..Some 6”-7” totals just to the east in Pulaski...

Probably the heaviest rain I’ve seen this summer, loving it lol

The last few cycles of the hrrr has had a nice soaking in and around the pulaski area between 2-6 pm, i live about 6 miles ESE of pulaski, lets see how well it does..

About 1/2” LE since yesterday afternoon, hrrr has another 1/2” or so on tap for late morning/early afternoon, definitely could use the rain, water well is starting to run dry lol

Some nasty storms rolling through, about 1/2” liquid in 15 min..