wolfie09

I'm in a mood today..

Rgem looks like the ggem which has been steady for a couple days now..

Enjoy

6z Euro

HWO A storm system moving along the east coast will spread snow across the region Thursday night into Friday which could accumulate 3 to 6 inches. The snow could mix with sleet at times

Could be worse, Fulton saw less then 2”

Snow really starting to pick up now, huge fluffy flakes.. SWS Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 150 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 NYZ003>006-141000- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego- Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego 150 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO OVERNIGHT... Multiple bands of lake effect snow will continue overnight. Some of these band will produce moderate to occasionally heavy snow. Snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour are possible in the most persistent snows. Visibilities will drop quickly to less than a half mile in the areas of heavier snow.

Euro close to something big..

They are the same person matt.. Rgem doing well so far, it showed the band in central and southern Oswego county and shows a secondary band get going between 1am-4am.. It won’t add up to much but should freshen things up a bit

I’m just south of Pulaski latitude so I’m missing by a mile or two lol

We’ll see if it back builds but central Oswego county may be done soon..

Just getting some flurries here , I’m to far north for this band, rgem develops a 2nd band later that dumps a couple inches..

This gives you a "general" idea..

The NEW 18z ECM

The main event through Wednesday will be the development of a multi-lake connection snow band that affects areas SE of Lake Ontario. This band may have a tough time getting started this evening, but confidence is high enough for a strong single lake band or two separate bands moving across the region by late tonight into Wednesday morning. A single band would be focused squarely on an area from Northern or NE Wayne County east to Western Oswego. All high res models pinpoint this area with peak intensity between ~06-12Z Wednesday, which is often a period of intensification due to shoreline convergence and/or land breezes. There is some disagreement to how stationary the band will be though. If it wanders, then amounts may be more spread out and a little lower than forecast. But with peak lake effect season underway, plus a good triple lake connection signal, will place amounts on the higher side with 3-6 hours of up to 2" snow rates. Some models suggest two separate bands moving through the region overnight while others create a single band. With the former, parts of Monroe county could see some bursts of snow, so have placed the Rochester area into an Advisory. If a single band results, then areas east of Rochester will have higher amounts. HREF amounts are a little on the light side compared to the current forecast due to some differences between the HRW NMMB member and the NAM Nest being a little out of sync with the HRW NSSL and ARW. The duration of this event should be relatively short which should keep amounts from getting out of control. Still, expect a narrow swath of around a foot of snow with the usual variability and localized higher/lower amounts. Storm totals within the band may approach a narrow peak of 15" bulls-eyed somewhere from about Wolcott to Fulton and/or Phoenix, with far less 10-20 miles away from the peak. Areas on the north side of the band, from about Mexico to Parish should see only a few inches. Areas to the west toward Rochester should see upwards of about 5" with amounts decreasing to the south and/or southwest toward the Thruway.

The power of lake effect: Upstate NY will be one of snowiest US spots this week Syracuse, N.Y. -- Snow is expected to fall from New Mexico to Maine over the next two days, but almost nowhere as heavily as in Upstate New York. Thanks to lake effect snow from the Great Lakes, Upstate New York and Michigan's Upper Peninsula could see close to a foot of snow in isolated areas through 7 p.m. Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service. Most areas over the 2,300-mile swath of snowfall will get an inch or two. That long stretch of snow is caused by cold polar air dipping as far south as Texas and bumping into a warmer air mass that's pulling in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. "What you're looking at here is the boundary zone of warm air moving north from the Gulf and cold air moving south from Canada," said Mark Wysocki, New York state climatologist. "You can see how that boundary stretches from the southern plains to the Great Lakes." Another system, a coastal storm that is moving along the East Coast today, will interact with that boundary of cold and warm air. As that coastal storm moves off Cape Cod Tuesday night, it will pull cold air across the Great Lakes, generating lake effect snow in Michigan and New York. Where the heaviest snow ends up depends upon the wind direction, Wysocki said. The National Weather Service is predicting winds from the northwest, so the heaviest snow in Upstate New York would be in Central New York. But even slight changes in wind direction could push that snow to the north or south, Wysocki said. "It could be from Tully up to Fulton and Oswego," he said. "It's what we call a forecaster's nightmare." Source

Third time this changed just today lol

.WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 15 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Western Oswego counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches expected in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Monroe county, mainly north of the Thruway. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Wednesday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

We know it's never correct but a man can dream right? lol

Little bump north on kbuf snow map, slight increase as well..I was expecting nada, now maybe score a couple inches..