wolfie09

Tonight the rangers are retiring the"king" Henrik Lundqvist jersey. The 11th in franchise history..

Yeah definitely.. Going to come down to the strength and placement of the Western Atlantic ridge as well as the Strong HP dropping south.. Should have some wintry somewhere in the middle lol

Canadian is pretty much just like the GFS..

Well 10" is better than nada lol Euro actually starts WNY(kbuf) as snow Wed before changing over as the stronger wave comes right over us verbatim..

Congrats WNY, again lol This is the euro on Wednesday..

You can always count on a donut hole right over us lol

Wny flips next frame, Thursday Eve fwiw

If we could just speed the front up a touch lol Still time..

So icon sends one wave over us and fringes us with the next lol

Nice man, I remember you telling me you grew up in Monmouth..I used to walk the Henry Hudson trail in that area..In-laws live in freehold but I grew up in Jackson and Staten island..

In-laws down in Monmouth county NJ have a blizzard warning.. Not an all timer but solid event, at least for there... BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 15 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. * WHERE...The coastal counties of New Jersey, and coastal sections of Sussex County in Delaware. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow is expected to begin on Friday evening, with snow becoming heavy after midnight. The most likely time for blizzard conditions is late Friday night through midday Saturday. Blizzard conditions are primarily expected at or within a few miles from the coast. Snow will wind down Saturday afternoon.

Rgem always does right by me lol Meanwhile a weakening Clipper type low moves into the central Great Lakes. This will cause winds to slowly back later Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure departs to the southeast and weak Clipper system slides by to our southwest during this time period. With 850Ts remaining well into the negative teens C, the combination of additional moisture associated with the weak surface low and an upper trough moving into the region will be enough to re- ignite the lake effect machine with lake effect snow showers developing east of Lake Erie and southeast of Lake Ontario Saturday night. As winds continue to slowly back with time, lake effect snow showers will be directed northeast of the Lake Erie and east of Lake Ontario by Sunday afternoon. Lake effect snow will eventually locate itself northeast of Lake Ontario as well by later Sunday night into Monday morning before activity off both lakes dissipates as main upper level trough axis moves east of our area and winds shift to the south bringing in warmer air aloft. There will likely be at least minor accumulations associated with the lake bands, however exact timing, strength and placement are still somewhat in question at this time. Weak flow will also limit the inland extent of the bands. Outside of the main lake effect activity, mainly dry conditions are expected.

Some changes in model consensus toward the mid and latter part of the work week with regards to the anticipated warmup. Next cold front either stalls over or just east of the area sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday bringing the chance of rain and snow showers with it. With the further eastward progression of the cold front and precipitation, high temps on Wednesday will be held down some from earlier thinking with mainly upper 30s to lower 40s. Model consensus has also shifted the track of the next low pressure system a bit further east, now taking it very near or right over NYS. This would not only bring likely chances for rain and snow, but also keep highs on Thursday from reaching no higher than the the 40s. Still plenty of uncertainty so stay tuned.

Getting some"steady* snow here but the good stuff is just to the north, Canadian guidance keeps it mostly intact on its way south, hoping to wake up to a few inches..

You guys are also implying the GFS is correct lol The euro stalls the front to our west. This high pressure will slowly nudge eastward Tuesday - Thursday with an initial cold front nearing our region Tuesday - Wednesday. This front will stall, bringing low chances for rain showers Tuesday Night and Wednesday, this as a much stronger surface low forms over the Southern Plains.

Lol this would be funny and suck at the same time, not that I'm expecting it to verify like that..

Well we need a snowstorm first lol Not one that travels to JT..

GFS starting to get onboard..

Lol yeah I noticed but rgem still in it's LR.. NWS did make note of it... The surface ridge axis moves further into the region Sunday. Moisture will continue to increase across Lake Erie Sunday and light snow is possible across western NY with lake enhancement east of Lake Erie. Lake snows possible east-northeast of Lake Ontario with minor accumulation expected. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 20s across western NY and to the teens across the North Country Sunday. Lake aggregate troughing expected Sunday night and lake snows possible close to the lake shores. Temperatures will fall to the single digits Sunday night

For the last time it's a 3 day warm up dude, no one is saying it won't be cold in the LR..If the euro is correct it will be in the 50s on Friday for CNY.. This will cause snow to melt. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 38. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Wednesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Wednesday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

This warmth, peaking Thursday coupled with a southerly breeze and dewpoints rising above freezing will put a major dent into our existing deep snowpack. Biggest drop in the snowpack will likely be Thursday when a primed snowpack encounters an airmass that will likely bring air temperatures to 50F if not warmer to WNY along with a period of rain. Late next week will need to be watched for possible ice jams along with any flooding with the combination of rain and snowmelt.

A cold south to southwest flow ahead an approaching cold front will promote the development of lake snows northeast of both lakes early this evening. Some shear and a cap averaging 5kft will initially limit the ability of the lake snow response...but as winds back from 220 to 240 during the course of the evening...the cap will elevate a bit and a deep 5kft DGZ will be in place. This should promote very efficient snow making in both the BUF and ART metro areas for the first half of the night with snowfall rates possibly exceeding an inch per hour. By midnight...the flow will veer to about 260 which will push the heart of the snowbands into the Buffalo Southtowns and towards the Tug Hill. Rates will remain the same as described above but the bands will now be more progressive. By daybreak...the steering flow should be 290-300 with the heavier snows being pushed into the Southern Tier and Oswego county respectively. Winter weather advisories have been expanded to include Chautauqua and southern Erie counties for the Lk Erie activity...and have been extended inland across Lewis county for the band off Ontario. On Friday...high pressure extending from the central plains to the Upper Great Lakes will set up a north to northeast flow of increasingly cold sub arctic air. Afternoon temps will be in the teens across the western counties and in the single digits across parts of the North Country. The cold northerly flow will keep lake snows south-southeast of both lakes...but with a lowering cap accums will be limited.

Tough call for sure, early on mesos not in love with it..

Looks like the NAM models are in agreement..