Tea kettle
type band over mid lake will head toward eastern shore late
Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. The ultimate landing spot
for this band on eastern shore of Lake Ontario will be highly
dictated by weak wind field/mesoscale processes that are hard to
determine yet. But, if that band comes onshore, potential is
there for several inches of fluffy snow due to strong low-level
convergence helped out by overall weak convergence as the
clipper moves through and also a favorable profile with lake
EQLs up to 8kft and good portion of the lake convective layer in
the DGZ. SLRs could only be increased due to the light winds.
Using output from the Canadian-regional and NAM increased snow
amounts toward Jefferson and Oswego county border, but didn`t
extend this too far inland with the light winds. Some hint that
passage of trough could shove this band back more over southeast
shore of Lake Ontario late Sunday night or it may just dissolve
as winds become variable and eventually push it back across the
open waters of the lake into Monday morning. Meantime, off Lake
Erie with sw flow, temps plenty cold enough at top of inversion
and still enough open water, there could be a few snow showers
impacting Buffalo Metro at times Sun night into Monday morning,
though nothing really shows near as much as the activity east of
Lake Ontario. Away from the lake effect Sun and Sun night it
will be not as cold with highs on Sun in the 20s and lows in the
single digits Sun night.