wolfie09

PART OF PHILADELPHIA REGION HIT WITH '100-YEAR FLOOD,' NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYS BENSALEM, Pennsylvania (WPVI) -- Parts of our region were swamped by a series of storms on Monday that the National Weather Service called a rare "flash flood emergency."According to forecasters, Monday's storms dumped 6 to 10 inches of rain in just 3 to 4 hours, swelling the Delaware River in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, and Burlington County, New Jersey.

We had a little pop up storm earlier this morning, dropped a quick 1/4" in about 10 minutes or so..

Where ever these storms"camp out" is going to see quite of bit of rain.. Hard to trust any model though lol

Couple tornado warnings and FF warnings..

Haven't posted these in a while, very"normal" looking with slight probabilities of above average for kbuf CWA..

Not much going on here today, cloudy with temps in mid 70s and dews mid 60s.. Starting tomorrow activity looks to pick up once again as the warm front approaches.. Updated WPC guidance showing a small swath of 3"-4" Day 1/2..

Probably doesn't make it through until tomorrow.. Finally break out into warm sector on Tuesday as the warm front shifts to the north of the forecast area. While convection likely to INITIALLY key on lake breeze boundaries...activity to become more widespread during the second part of the afternoon. Still risk for tropical downpours.

Up to 4.42" on the month, some locations to the east have double digit rain totals, especially areas that got hit hard from Elsa..

We managed to salvage the first event somewhat with 0.81" overnight, 0.97" total for the event..

Missing most of the convection to the south, just some light steady rain most of the afternoon, slowly adding up lol NWS/WPC going to bust on rainfall amounts unless something pops up overnight..

7 day QPF has some 5"-7" amounts in/around the MV and southern Dacks..

WPC D1 Fwiw..As usual guidance is all over the place.. Some flash flood watches have been posted to the south including the sizzlecuse..

Slight probabilities for flash flooding..

HWO Any stronger thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday night will be capable of producing torrential downpours and isolated flooding. Heat index values in the lower to middle 90s are possible on Tuesday afternoon. WPC D1-5..

Gonna go out on a limb and say the Ggem went a little overboard for next week lol

Next week.. It will change but for now that's what it's showing lol

Nam similar but a little south..

Euro wants to drop another 1"-3" on Sunday night/Monday, not saying it's right just what it shows verbatim lol

A surface warm front pushing towards our region from the South will bring another period of active weather beginning on Sunday. Rain showers along the front along with with diffluent flow aloft will gradually spread from south to north across the region. More widespread shower activity will reach the NY/PA border in the early afternoon and overspread much of the area shortly thereafter, lasting right through Sunday night. Low level warm air advection should limit lapse rates and overall CAPE, but abundant moisture with PWATs close to 2" will bring the chance for some steady rain and a possibly a few rumbles of thunder in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Unsettled weather with above normal temperatures can be expected through the entirety of this period...as a Bermuda high will maintain a southerly flow of deep moisture and sub tropical warmth from the GOMEX. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely...so rainfall through the period will average above normal.

We picked up 1.60" of rain this afternoon from a few rounds of heavy rain, 3.44" in the first 8 days of the month, so I don't have much to complain about.. 3k wants to develop some more T-storms late this evening..Not sure about that yet lol

Pouring out right now as I sit on the southern end of this stronger band..

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for... East Central Monroe County in western New York... Northwestern Wayne County in western New York... * Until 845 PM EDT. * At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly. HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms. SOURCE...Radar. IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage and low-lying areas. * Some locations that will experience flash flooding include... Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, Webster, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Charlotte, Rochester General Hospital, Strong Memorial Hospital, Union Hill and Rochester International Airport.

As things stand with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), neutral conditions are currently present in the tropical Pacific and favored to last through the North American summer and into the fall. But forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have issued a La Niña Watch, which means they see La Niña likely emerging (~55%) during the September-November period and lasting through winter. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2021-enso-update-la-niña-watch

STW issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... South central Jefferson County in central New York... Southwestern Lewis County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 515 PM EDT.. * At 426 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fulton, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Pulaski, Central Square, Redfield, Selkirk Shores State Park, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point and Southwick Beach State Park. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 40.

3k throwing out some 4"-5" amounts lol Majority coming between 6-9 pm..