wolfie09

“State law allows marijuana use anywhere tobacco use is permitted,” Bullard said. “Smoking is not permitted in Fairgrounds buildings or in the open concert venues at Chevy Court and Chevy Park but is allowed elsewhere outdoors. We encourage those who smoke to be considerate of others around them.”

Picked up 1.24" overnight, rain has pretty much stopped for the time being, currently 67°..

Midday sfc analysis shows high holding over New England with sfc low over eastern Ohio and inverted trough extending from the low to LE and southwest NYS. Showers, no thunder, with pockets of moderate rain is arriving over southwest NYS, west of a line from DKK to JHW. Elsewhere, clouds will continue to thicken from the south, though skies will stay mostly sunny east of Lake Ontario the rest of today. Initial band of showers will lift across rest of western NY to Genesee Valley by late afternoon into early evening. Thunder chances for rest of today look minimal, but will increase tonight as stronger lift/moisture advection takes shape as sfc low and warm front approach. PWATs increase to 1.8 to 2 inches tonight into Tuesday as sfc low and warm front lift northward into our area, so heavy downpours will eventually become a hazard tonight in the stronger showers and storms. Bulk of troposphere becoming saturated tonight into Tuesday morning with upslope flow into the terrain of Southern Tier to east of Lake Ontario will result in some fog as well. Warm front continues to lift across our region on Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front is where the most widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will be found. Initially that will be southeast and east of Lake Ontario, then with increased heating and resulting instability during the day, showers or a thunderstorm will increase in coverage in the afternoon. Showers and storms on Tuesday will be slow moving and warm rain processes will be dominant. A bit of a signal for heavier rain is showing up in various high res guidance and HREF probabilities near the warm front southeast and east of Lake Ontario on Tuesday afternoon. Latest WPC excessive rainfall outlook now includes a slight risk of exceeding FFG for this area on to the south and east with marginal risk elsewhere. Will continue the mention of heavy rain where pops are likely or higher and keep mention in the HWO as well. If area of expected rain was larger and/or FFG was lower would have considered a Flood Watch. Right now held off on that though.

Warm front this evening/early morning.. 3k wants to bring the remnants through W/C PA and into NY state.. Albeit LR 3k NAM..

Euro with some significant rain for parts of C/E NY due to tropical moisture streaming north..The western Atlantic ridge will have a lot to say on where the heaviest tropical moisture persist..

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION issued by CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society 12 August 2021 ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January). Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral. Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 September 2021.

A warm front over the Upper Ohio valley will push north into our region tonight. This will support fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms...particularly over the western counties (pops boosted to cat). Given PWAT values arnd 2"...have added some enhanced wording for heavy rain. The warm front will continue its northward trek on Tuesday... advancing across the Eastern Lk Ontario region during the first half of the day. This is where the most widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will be found...although with limited heating (extensive cloud cover) during the day...many areas could pick up a shower or thunderstorm. Will maintain heavy rain enhanced wording in areas with likely to cat pops. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Deep tropical moisture, remnants of TS Fred, will likely fuel showers and storms during this period. What`s left of Fred lifts out of the deep south and tracks up along the spine of the Appalachians Tuesday night. Juicy airmass will stream north ahead of Fred with PW values nearing or exceeding 2.0 inches across the region. BUFKIT soundings show weak to little flow through most of the atmospheric column Wednesday afternoon/evening and warm cloud depth of +12K feet. The best shot at seeing showers or stronger convection will be from the S. Tier east into the Finger Lakes region. However, this will all depend on the exact track of Fred. That said, any convection that does form will be capable of producing tropical downpours which may lead to flash flooding. This will especially be the case if storms can focus on a boundary or train over the same locations. Will need to keep an eye on this threat and the track of Fred. Will mention this in the HWO. Otherwise, humid and warm airmass will be in place with highs mainly in the 80s. Wednesday night, convection will continue as Fred slowly works past the area overnight but will slowly diminish in coverage with the loss of solar isolation

More rain potential the next couple days..

Some"sizzle sizzle" returns at the end of the week as well as precipitation chances.. Staying warm and humid with chances of showers and thunderstorms, peaking during the afternoon through early evening hours. Large scale pattern changes little Wednesday into Thursday. Remnants of tropical system Fred impact our region on Wednesday as deep moisture lifts across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. With little large scale feature shown now and heights aloft neutral flow to slight ridging, expect a typical pattern of convection on Wednesday and Thursday with lake breeze boundaries and terrain providing primary lift. Wednesday could have bit more of a gradient sw wind so decreased pops from blended guidance output northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Given close approach of deep tropical moisture from remnants of Fred, convection from Southern Tier to Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario could produce heavy downpours. Both days will see highs in the 80s, warmest over the lake plains with less clouds/showers. Friday into Saturday, ridge holds offshore of the Atlantic coast while weak troughing aloft over upper Lakes slowly slides east. Some minor timing differences, but should see increased coverage in showers and some thunderstorms as this wave tracks east across lower Great Lakes. Right now, greatest chances by Friday over WNY with maximum in chances on Saturday more south and east. H85 temps in the the middle teens support highs into at least the low to mid 80s, but even upper 80s could occur either day lake plains to southeast of Lake Ontario as long as clouds/convection are not too widespread.

Nice chilly night last with a low of 52°, hovering in the low-mid 70s so far today, DP at 55°, RF is lower than the surface temp which is a welcomed change lol

Surface still warming up nicely into the mid-upper 70s but DPs into the mid 50s makes it feel so much more comfortable..

Finally some relief even if it's just for a couple/few days lol

Seeing some decent lightning off in the distance as this cell draws closer... Looks like some nice convection approaching buffalo.

Sizzle Sizzle

A cold front stretches across southern Ontario this afternoon. A warm and humid airmass remains in place across western and north central NY. Cloud cover and showers across western NY has kept temperatures down however dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to low 70s. Heat indices from the Genesee Valley to the western Finger Lakes region will reach the low 90s today. A weak circulation moved into western NY this morning and has put a damper on convective initiation across much of western NY. On differential heating boundaries, storms are beginning to form across Cattaraugus and Allegany counties. Some storms are possible across the Niagara Frontier if clearing occurs this afternoon. A growing cumulus field has formed east of Lake Ontario and showers and storms are expected to form along the Lake Ontario lake breeze this afternoon. Effective shear around 25kts and about 2000 J/kg of SBCAPE will lead to growing updrafts with the potential for downbursts capable of strong winds and torrential downpours. Greatest threat area is from the western Finger Lakes to the Tug Hill region and east this afternoon. Storms are expected to form along the front across southern Ontario this afternoon. They will track towards the Niagara Frontier, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River through early evening. While they encounter less instability near western NY, greater instability exists across the Saint Lawrence River. The front moves into western NY by this evening. It will track east tonight while the chance for showers and storms continues ahead of the front. While the loss of daytime heating will limit intense convection, the wind field increases ahead of an approaching upper level trough. This increase in shear may allow storms to last into the overnight hours.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 325 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2021 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 437 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS NYC001-007-011-015-017-021-023-025-027-035-039-041-043-049-053- 057-065-067-075-077-083-091-093-095-097-099-101-105-107-109-111- 113-115-123-140300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0437.210813T1925Z-210814T0300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CAYUGA CHEMUNG CHENANGO COLUMBIA CORTLAND DELAWARE DUTCHESS FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER LEWIS MADISON MONTGOMERY ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO RENSSELAER SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE SCHUYLER SENECA STEUBEN SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS ULSTER WARREN WASHINGTON YATES

Popcorn storms popping up.. Heavy rain here which should be brief..

With the anticipation of isolated strong to severe storms today...12z Buffalo sounding shows a moist airmass still in place with a PWAT of 1.72in. Effective and 0-6km bulk shear around 20-25kts with forecast surface based CAPE around 1000 J/kg. Dry in the mid-levels and DCAPE around 800 J/kg shows the risk of downburst potential in growing thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. As of 11am, CIN is diminishing across the region. While the VAST majority of today will feature rain free weather... a warm humid airmass lies in wait for a cold front that will press through the region late this afternoon and evening. This will encourage increasing pops through the course of the day...with the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity coming after 3 PM when synoptic lift and diurnal instability will be at their greatest. Td`s in the lower 70s for the bulk of the region with PWAT values of 1.75 to 2" will nearly guarantee torrential downpours with convection...so have continued mention of heavy rain. Bulk shear only in the ballpark of 25kts...so not as confident with potential for severe storms. Regardless...forecast area is in a marginal risk area as deemed by SPC.

Sizzle Sizzle wise we hit 88, 88 and 85 the last 3 days, as Max alluded to they didn't last for long, most of today has been in the upper 70, low 80s with cloud cover, DPs suck though lol

A full 2000 people here I think the high was 2300 in 2010.. With that being said it usually feels like a whole lot more..Who knew the area could be such a tourist attraction? Lol Every fall the Salmon River is a magnet for anglers across the Northeast and beyond. Studies conducted by the state Department of Environmental Conservation have indicated more 1.1 million angler hours are spent on this waterway each year -- more than all the other Lake Ontario tributaries combined. The DEC estimates some 200,000 anglers fish the river throughout the year (many in the fall) and that 62 percent are from out of state. The top 10 states of residency of those out-of-state anglers are Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maryland, Virginia and Maine.

The potential for severe weather continues to diminish for our forecast area, with a limited risk for strong thunderstorms through early evening. Remnants of a convective complex across Western New York will continue to help suppress convection across the area. Impressive wind fields are still in place, and this will likely support strong storms to our south and east. Following this, SPC has updated its slight risk area to only include far southern and eastern portions of our cwa. For the Buffalo and Rochester metro areas, this means scattered thunderstorms may develop this afternoon, but the risk for severe weather is low but non-zero. There still remains a decent risk for gusty winds and heavy rain in the slight risk area, but the time window for these areas is closing also, with most of the showers and storms expected to be out of the forecast area around 6 p.m.

Last few runs of the HRRR keeps everything south for today..

As per SPC..."The new model data suggests that a line segment will form during the early afternoon across western and northern New York, with this line moving east-southeastward into central New York and western New England during the late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z from central New York into Vermont have veered low- level winds to the southwest with speed shear in the mid-levels. This combined with steep low-level lapse rates will aid downdraft acceleration, making damaging winds possible with the stronger parts of the line." The very high Tds will also allow apparent temps to climb to between 95 and 100 for the bulk of the region...despite the cloud cover. Heat advisories will remain in place for all but the Srn Tier and Lewis county where higher terrain will offer some relief from the sweltering heat. The convection will quickly die off after sunset this evening... leaving behind only widely separated showers and weaker thunderstorm activity. Temps will once again hold well abv normal with readings only bottoming out in the lower 70s for the bulk of the region.

Here is the Hrrr for 6 pm.. Pretty much craps out after this..