Gravity Wave

A little tropical excitement would somewhat make up for the general awfulness of the weather this summer and hopefully change the pattern in time for fall.

NAM was right on the money with the slightly lower temps for today.

The heat might be making me go insane but it actually felt marginally better outside this morning. NAM says the relief will start coming in around 10:00 PM tonight.

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It looks like August will average warmer than July at Central Park.  This hasn’t happened a ton but when it has in recent history it has not boded well for the ensuing December more often than not.  The years where this occurred since 1950 are 1956, 1959, 1960, 1969, 1970, 1973, 1978, 1980, 1984, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2009, 2015, 2016.  Out of all those years only 60, 69, 80, 2000, and 2009 were cold Decembers and I’m not sure 2000 really qualifies since July was so insanely cold you’d have needed an ice age in August to not beat it out 

July 2009 was also very cold.

Is it just me or has Tropical Tidbits become a lot slower with releasing the model panels? I don't really care now but it could be very annoying in the winter.

CMC and NAM indicating that the heat on Thursday will be somewhat muted compared to tomorrow (upper 80s-lower 90s rather than mid-upper 90s), whereas the GFS is still on full blast (shocking).

Seriously considering staying at work until 8 the next few nights so i can get a car home instead of waiting for the subway on a 200 degree platform.

The CFS Weeklies are suggesting that the AN temps and high dews will fade after September 10th, and the long range GFS agrees.

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Hard to believe that it has been 20 years.

An intense line of severe thunderstorms oriented from north to south developed during Labor Day afternoon ahead of a strong approaching cold front. As the storms moved east at 40 to 50 mph, they produced high winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado. Wind gusts from 60 to 80 mph downed many trees and power lines throughout the area. The cost estimates of damage included above are preliminary figures submitted by the Nassau County Office of Emergency Management. In Richmond County, the following peak wind gusts were reported: 80 mph at Great Kills, the Verranzano Bridge, and in Richmond. High winds downed trees and caused a building to collapse in Richmond. One tree fell on and injured a man in Richmond. In New York County (Manhattan), high winds caused a building to collapse. In the Bronx, high winds downed a tree that fell on 3 people resulting in 1 death and 2 injuries in the courtyard of the Edenwald Houses at 1135 East 229th Street. In Kings County (Brooklyn), high winds downed and uprooted several large trees. One tree fell on and injured a person at East 229th Street. Five to 6-foot diameter trees were uprooted east of Coney Island in the Gerritsen Beach Section, where 3 funnel clouds were also sighted and a firefighter was injured from large hail. Large trees also fell on and damaged cars in Bensonhurst. In Queens County, a peak wind gust of 62 mph was measured at both LaGuardia Airport and at JFK Airport. In Nassau County, the following peak wind gusts were reported: 75 mph in Farmingdale, 60 mph in Port Washington and Mineola and 58 mph at Farmingdale Republic Airport. High winds downed large tree limbs at Rockville Center, Baldwin, and Oceanside and downed trees in Long Beach, Massapequa, and Valley Stream. One-inch diameter hail dented cars and covered the ground in Farmingdale. In Suffolk County, high winds overturned many boats in the Great South Bay, downed large trees in West Babylon and Rocky Point and downed large tree limbs in Wading River. One person died when a thunderstorm wind gust capsized a 19 foot sail boat in Great South Bay near Copiague. A Centerport woman, 36, and her daughter, 3, were injured when a tree fell on them in the parking lot of the Ground Round Restaurant and CVS on Fort Salonga Road. The following peak wind gusts were reported: 72 mph in Babylon and 65 mph in Fire Island.

Event Narrative

The NWS confirmed that an F2 tornado was responsible for significant damage that occurred in Lynbrook. Most of the village received damage from straight line winds up to 80 mph, that was associated with a severe squall line. Downed trees covered the village with some structural damage where the F2 tornado touched down. The major path of damage was from the northwest section of Lynbrook east-southeast to the southeast section of the village. Funnel clouds were observed from near the intersection of Marshall Ave. and Burtis Street and to the southeast. A tornado was first sighted by two eyewitnesses on Hampton Place. It rose and touched down several times: Second, near Winter Street and across Glover Circle; Third, along Peninsula Blvd. between Earle and Benton Avenues; and Fourth, as a weak F2 near the intersection of Rocklyn Ave. and Merrick Road. It moved across the Long Island Railroad Tracks and Sunrise Highway before it finally dissipated. More than three hundred trees were blown over, many on houses and cars. Six people received minor injuries. Four of these were in "The Fun Zone" on Rocklyn Avenue. One woman was slightly injured by a tree that fell on her car. One police officer was also injured.

     
 

Event Map:

The event that got me into weather! We had 70 mph sustained winds in Allentown that took down half the trees in the park next to my house, and our front door blew open despite the fact that it faces north rather than west. I'll never forget how pitch black it was at 1:00 in the afternoon.

Models are trending towards cutting off the heat wave early, looks like the 90s will be confined to Mon-Wed.

The CFS torches us the first week of September but then really backs down, average to very slightly above average for the rest of the month.

8 hours ago, mjr said:

 On July 31, 2009 there was an article in the NY Times lamenting the cool summer thus far and that it had not exceeded 86 during all of July. Well, the summer was certainly well below normal but LGA recorded days of 87,87,88 and 89 (on the day of the article).

I would kill to have more summers like that one. Absolutely beautiful for all of June and July. August was back to normal but it was my all-time favorite summer. Also had an EF2 touch down about 20 miles from me that summer, which qualifies as interesting in Pennsylvania.

13 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

In the Miami suburb of Brooklyn for the weekend where it's 87/76/98.

Miami, Bangkok, Manila, take your pick.

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Last September was the ultimate fake out. A place like EWR had the record cold upper 40's on the 2nd followed by a late month heatwave and departure rebound.

And then October was an epic torch. My first month in the city.

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

September has become more like a 4th month of summer since the late 90's. Record number of years with a September average temperature at or above 70 for places like EWR and LGA. Almost as warm as an average June.

I was born in 92 and can't remember a single "fall-like" September. More like a lot of drier Junes.

2 hours ago, seanick said:

Tomorrow night looks good for another round of Crazy thunderstorms in NYC around 8 to 11pm. Soundings suggest a tornado is possible. If so, that would be the second in one month. 

12z NAM had a nasty looking squall line along with 3000 CAPE, -6 LI and 3-5(!!!) EHI from NNJ/the City up through the LHV tomorrow at 8:00.

Where would you put a sensor in NYC that wouldn't be disproportionately affected by the heat from cars/grates/etc? The middle of the Brooklyn Bridge?

While we're discussing UHI, can we talk about how garbage the GFS is at simulating it, especially during the day? It consistently overheats the big cities by 5-8 or even 10 degrees on warm days. Below is the 2:00 PM forecast from the 12z GFS:

GFS forecast for NYC: 92. Actual: 86

GFS forecast for BOS: 95. Actual: 84

IIRC this was an issue during the winter as well, especially during those marginal March storms, although the bias was less pronounced compared to the summer.

Growing up in Allentown my family would eat outside most non-rainy nights in the summer, unless there was a major heat wave, because the temps by 7:00 would usually be tolerable and the humidity wouldn't have climbed too much yet. There's zero chance we could do theoretically that in NYC with this ridiculous weather, and I don't think Allentown is much better now (except that it cools off more late night because of the smaller UHI and lack of warm water).

I'd trade a MECS this winter for the tropic of cancer to move 1,000 miles south back to where it belongs for the rest of this infernal summer.

Had about half an hour of heavy rain here, don't think there was much in the way of wind. Very impressive radar signature on that cell.