Rtd208

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf

Earthlight and crew.

DT (WxRisk) https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

Not necessarily a big ticket winter but not bad either. https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook

NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop

Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- above to much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves.

DT (WxRisk) Preliminary 2017-18 Winter Forecast. https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf

Hit the ignore button on our friend in denial, he is a hopeless case and does this with every big storm. Once again. some people just believe their own press.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/10/26/down-hundreds-of-staff-weather-service-teetering-on-the-brink-of-failure-labor-union-says/?tid=sm_tw&utm_term=.cbb3561c64de#comments

Months and months of boring weather and under performing storms has really taken a toll on some of the forum members, I understand the frustration but wow.

Its sent via an email group. You have to subscribe to receive it.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Cliff jumpers warming up early this year.

Lets hope not, good thing its still fairly early. It would be something if it happened, very persistent pattern.

Seasonal trend says wagons south.

Looks like we are going to see showers and thunderstorms at some point leading into the July 4th holiday.

I was only 1 years old when "Dream Weaver" was released, but always cried when it was on the radio, of course as I got older the crying stopped but I still hate the song to this day. Thank god it is rarely played on the radio.

This song seems to be showing up everywhere lately, lol. Its almost as bad as Gary Wright's "Dream Weaver", god I hate that song.

Just thought I would play the devils advocate and post DT's thoughts on the 0z Op GFS. https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1290308717683050?notif_t=notify_me_page&notif_id=1489006936103079

DT says winter is basically over in his This Week in Weather video. He mentions maybe..maybe some winter weather in mid to late March if the mjo swings around into a more favorable position again but honestly by then who cares. I am really not a big fan of any wintry weather after the first ten days of March unless it is an extreme event i.e Superstorm of 93 or if we have a very cold air mass in place.