Rtd208

I am liking "Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless"

17/8/5 June: 2/0/0 July: 3/1/0 August: 4/2/2 September: 6/4/2 October: 2/1/1 November: 0/0/0

While he didn't get to in depth on the discussion in his weekly newsletter it seems like Larry Cosgrove is leaning towards a hotter summer for our area with plenty of thunderstorm chances especially from 40 N Lat and above. Also a sooner start and end to the tropical season.

The differences in amounts between these news outlets gets ridiculous and is probably the reason why so many people get caught offguard by these storms. Every news station wants to be the best when the ultimate goal should be to come up with the most accurate forecast for the public in terms of snowfall amounts. I mean you have one station calling for 3-6" while another is calling for 8-12" for the same area, to me that is a big difference which has happened plenty of times in the past.. Not everyone will channel through to see the forecasts for different stations and most usually watch only one news outlet. I really think there needs to be more and better coordination and communication IMO.

Agreed, its amazing what some meteorologists will do to support their forecast. One of the dumbest things I have ever heard. I follow him on twitter but sometimes he says some outlandish things.

Grasping.

Nice write up by Earthlight and crew. https://www.nymetroweather.com/2018/02/03/sudden-stratospheric-warming-increasingly-likely-mean/

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

DT (WxRisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf

Earthlight and crew.

DT (WxRisk) https://www.wxrisk.com/more-hints-reasons-why-i-am-skeptical-of-mild-la-nina-winter-narrative/

Not necessarily a big ticket winter but not bad either. https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook

NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop

Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- above to much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves.

DT (WxRisk) Preliminary 2017-18 Winter Forecast. https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf

Hit the ignore button on our friend in denial, he is a hopeless case and does this with every big storm. Once again. some people just believe their own press.