Interesting snippet from Mt.Holly's AFD for today and tonight.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As a large mid level closed low slowly digs southeast out of
Ontario, a surface low over our region this evening is expected to
intensify and deepen. Unfortunately, there are still several
question marks with this event even though we are now within 12 to
24 hours of some of the impacts. For one, it still isn`t clear where
the center of the surface low will be by early this evening. Most
high res models have trended further northwest with the center of
the low. This will have impacts on temperatures, where exactly the
frontogenesis forcing will set up, and what areas will have some
(meager) instability. Another concern I have is that by late last
evening a low level southwesterly jet developed that was not well
sampled by the 00Z soundings (only evident from the VWPs of KDOX,
KDIX, and KOKX). This has me concerned that there may be other
significant mesoscale features that have not been sampled well and
thus not accounted for in the models. As for the various aspects of
the event today: