Rtd208

With reference to rainfall particularly the Euro, rainfall amounts in and just west of the city look to be on the order of 1-2" with lesser amounts to the east and heavier amounts further inland. With that said, small shifts in the track will make a big difference rainfall wise.

It looks like the higher dewpoints are creeping back in. Current temp 90/DP 69/RH 50%

It looks like the higher dewpoints are creeping back in. Current temp 90/DP 69/RH 50%

Pretty decent dewpoint drop here overnight. DP down to 68 here now after reaching 79 yesterday.

Pretty decent dewpoint drop here overnight. DP down to 68 here now after reaching 79 yesterday.

Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Tropical Storm Warning in effect here. 40-50 mph winds w/gusts up to 70 mph expected Tuesday afternoon and evening.

The theme on the 0z runs tonight seems to be a stronger storm with it going just west of the city. While there could be some slight fluctuations in track and intensity on the models for the next 12-24 hours it looks like we are starting to get a consensus.

If the further west track on some of the models is correct then that would give areas in the immediate metro area less rainfall but put those areas in a better position for higher winds and maybe some severe weather including a few tornadoes. We will have to see how the PRE sets up later tomorrow and tomorrow night but I suspect that may be mostly north and west of the metro area. I would still expect 2-4" of rainfall in and around the city (especially the city on west) with locally higher amounts. Lets see how things develop.

High for the day was 95 here. Current temp 84/DP 76/RH 78%

High for the day was 95 here. Current temp 84/DP 76/RH 78%

Current temp 93/DP 79/RH 63% Brutal.

Current temp 93/DP 79/RH 63% Brutal.

Slight wobbles can make a big difference here on who gets the heavies rains. IMO the models may continue to adjust slightly east but regardless if areas in and around the city miss out on the heaviest rains they will have a better chance of severe weather with a few spin ups possible along with windier conditions.

Current temp 84/DP 77/RH 81%

Current temp 84/DP 77/RH 81%

It looks like the SPC cut back on their slight risk from.earlier this morning. Have to see what they do on the next update.

It looks like most of the models place the heaviest rain to our west but that could put us in a better position for severe weather in the NYC metro. We should get a much better idea today on how things will set up over the next few days.

...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind damage.

...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind damage.

...Northeast... Weak mid-level disturbance will eject across the lower Great Lakes ahead of the main upper trough positioned farther west over the MS Valley. This lead feature should encourage a weak surface low to track from southern ON into southwest QC by mid evening. Any appreciable mid-level height falls will remain north of the international border, along with the primary large-scale mass response. Early in the day1 period, deep convection will likely be ongoing within a corridor of low-level warm advection, along the nose of a pronounced LLJ. This LLJ will shift north across upstate NY into southern ON/QC during the afternoon hours as a surface warm front advances north of the border. At this time it appears the primary focus for sustained, organized deep convection will be noted immediately ahead of the surface low. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur ahead of the surface low across western NY where temperatures should warm rapidly through the mid 80s. Renewed surface-based convection should evolve in the lee of Lake Ontario then track northeast. If the surface warm front were to be delayed advancing north into QC, low-level shear would be improved markedly across northern NY which would prove more supportive for supercells and tornadoes. Additionally, there is also some concern for strong convection along the trailing warm front that extends southeast across the Hudson Valley. While boundary-layer warming may not be as strong/focused as farther north, sustained warm advection and high PW-airmass should result in scattered strong convection. Forecast wind profiles favor some supercell threat, though clustering is also possible. Damaging winds should be the primary concern. Farther south, a belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will extend from the base of the trough over the southern Appalachians into the northern Middle Atlantic. While neutral/weak height rises are expected across this region, boundary-layer heating and orographic influences should encourage at least isolated thunderstorms. While poor lapse rates will limit convective updraft strength with this activity, modest cloud-layer flow should allow for some organization, along with a threat for localized wind damage.

Mt.Holly (KDIX) radar down again?

Mt.Holly (KDIX) radar down again?

Current temp 91/DP 68/RH 47% Another day of 90 or above in the books.

Current temp 91/DP 68/RH 47% Another day of 90 or above in the books.