Mt. Holly on the wind threat Friday afternoon/night.
In the wake of the strong cold frontal passage, we will dry out, and
attention will turn to the winds. Trends seen on the previous
overnight shift have continued today, with the potential for a
rather significant wind event late Friday into Friday night. In the
wake of the front, a very robust shortwave trough and associated
vorticity lobe will move through the region towards Friday
afternoon. An additional rain shower is possible late Friday morning
into the early afternoon ahead of this disturbance, but will likely
be limited in coverage due to decreasing moisture. Behind this
secondary disturbance, strong cold advection and a tight pressure
gradient will develop as surface low pressure rapidly deepens
heading into the Canadian maritimes, while high pressure encroaches
from the west. 28.12z guidance has actually trended even stronger on
wind fields for late Friday afternoon into Friday night. 12z NAM and
GFS BUFKIT soundings are supportive of wind gusts of at least 40 to
50 mph, if not higher, Friday late afternoon and evening. Continued
to trend the wind forecast upward to reflect this, though there is
still room to go up a bit more. Profiles suggest that little if any
stabilization of the boundary layer is likely at least during the
first half of Friday night, so while the timing is not the most
favorable for high winds in a traditional sense, that currently
doesn`t appear it will be much of a hindrance. If current trends
continue, we will at least reach Wind Advisory levels by late
Friday, and could potentially even be near High Wind Warning
thresholds. This is worth watching closely over the next couple of
days especially given leaves are now coming out on the trees,
increasing the wind damage risk.