Rtd208

Current temp is 81/DP 61

Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday. Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package. Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to around 50. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A 100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection races north in the developing warm sector, convection should readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues.

Interesting discussion from Mt. Holly for both Friday and Sunday. Model soundings suggest winds will be increasing in this regime, readily gusting to 35+ mph by afternoon. As winds begin to veer, diurnal mixing peaks, and a reinforcing cold front approaches the area, speeds will likely exceed advisory criteria in much of the area. Winds at 850 mb will be approaching 50 kt, and mixing has the potential to reach or even exceed this level. Seems likely we will need a wind advisory for Friday afternoon and evening, and if mixing ends up being more efficient than currently advertised, a rogue severe-caliber gust may occur. Held off on issuing wind headlines early this morning given ongoing/near-term weather, but expect wind products to be issued for the afternoon package. Winds should decrease fairly rapidly Friday night as the migratory surface low takes the strong pressure gradient with it to our northeast. Strong cold advection will be occurring in the post-frontal regime, but winds will not entirely decouple. Thus, kept Friday night lows fairly warm, generally in the 40s to around 50. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A fairly strong system will affect the region on Sunday, though the surface cyclone should lift well north of the region. Nevertheless, upper dynamics look fairly impressive as an initially positively-tilted trough begins to pivot to a more neutral tilt as it approaches the East Coast during the day. A 100+ kt speed max at 500 mb will nose into the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, collocated with a surging cold front to the south of the aforementioned surface low. As warm advection races north in the developing warm sector, convection should readily develop along the attendant warm/cold fronts. Widespread precipitation should occur in New England and the Mid-Atlantic in this setup, with areal QPF likely exceeding a half inch across the CWA (locally much higher amounts possible). Will need to watch this system closely, as both severe and hydro issues may be present depending on the usual timing/track issues.

Picked up 1.31" of rain for the day. Current temp 52

Picked up 1.31" of rain for the day. Current temp 52

It was nice to see things trend wetter as we moved closer. Picked up 1.30" of rain so far today. Current temp 49

It was nice to see things trend wetter as we moved closer. Picked up 1.30" of rain so far today. Current temp 49

Interesting read for today/tonight from Mt. Holly .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The lengthy stretch of dry weather comes to an end today. Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area. Prior to the start of rainfall, we`ve seen low clouds fill in over much of the area overnight as the low levels moisten further in the continued light onshore flow regime. This trend should continue into daybreak, and we should see more in the way of fog develop as well. It is possible we could see some breaks in the clouds during the mid morning hours as mixing begins and before rain arrives, but this is uncertain and probably less likely than not. As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center, and possibly over eastern PA with some orographic enhancement as well as the better jet dynamics. The trends have been a little slower on timing of rainfall, but showers should overspread the region from southwest to northeast mainly between 9AM and 2PM. Lighter showers or drizzle are possible before the arrival of steadier rain. Once the steadier rain arrives, it should continue through at least most of the daylight hours, possibly tapering off late in the day to the southwest. Given the rising PWATs and respectable dynamics, some heavier downpours are possible. So a wet day overall, especially this afternoon. While the air mass remains on the warm side, the rain and clouds will hold highs down in the mid to upper 50s in most of the area.

Interesting read for today/tonight from Mt. Holly .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The lengthy stretch of dry weather comes to an end today. Beautiful satellite imagery over the CONUS this morning as an occluding mid- latitude cyclone slowly approaches the western Great Lakes. Ahead of it lies an expansive frontal zone of cloud cover with a large band of cold cloud tops observed on IR from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation in most of this band is limited and on the light side as of early this morning, however. Meanwhile, a weak but pesky surface low which has sat well to our south for days was observed on radar moving inland over North Carolina overnight. The landfall was reminiscent of a weak tropical cyclone moving ashore. FSU cyclone phase space diagrams suggest it had at best a marginal and shallow warm core at landfall, and a lack of any deep convection rendered it firmly non-tropical. But it has a good envelope of higher moisture air associated with it from the sub-tropics, and as the day goes on it will begin to interact with the approaching frontal zone. This combination will lead to the blossoming of an area of showers which will bring a solid dose of rain to the area. Prior to the start of rainfall, we`ve seen low clouds fill in over much of the area overnight as the low levels moisten further in the continued light onshore flow regime. This trend should continue into daybreak, and we should see more in the way of fog develop as well. It is possible we could see some breaks in the clouds during the mid morning hours as mixing begins and before rain arrives, but this is uncertain and probably less likely than not. As the day goes on, what remains of the low to the south will become entrained in the slow moving frontal zone and will move towards our region. Continuing a trend that has been ongoing for at least 36 hours now, most model guidance continues to trend higher on QPF for this event. There has certainly been a trend higher in projected PWATs for today, which appear poised to rise to 1.2 to 1.4 inches across the region. Low level omega shows notable improvement over the area today, especially this afternoon. There is also a somewhat subtle ~95 kt upper jet streak which moves into New York state this afternoon, adding a bit of divergence at the upper levels. With this said, continuing the connections to tropical weather, there are at least some loose parallels to a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in play today with the rising PWATs and right entrance jet dynamics, especially considering the actual center of the compact low remains south of the region for most of the day. While there is quite a bit of variation in the models, it now appears many areas will pick up 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain today, with the potential for some localized higher amounts especially over southeastern portions of the area near the low center, and possibly over eastern PA with some orographic enhancement as well as the better jet dynamics. The trends have been a little slower on timing of rainfall, but showers should overspread the region from southwest to northeast mainly between 9AM and 2PM. Lighter showers or drizzle are possible before the arrival of steadier rain. Once the steadier rain arrives, it should continue through at least most of the daylight hours, possibly tapering off late in the day to the southwest. Given the rising PWATs and respectable dynamics, some heavier downpours are possible. So a wet day overall, especially this afternoon. While the air mass remains on the warm side, the rain and clouds will hold highs down in the mid to upper 50s in most of the area.

Posted in the New England sub forum.

Posted in the New England sub forum.

The Euro got the itis from the GFS.

Made it up to a high of 63 yesterday. Current temp 36

Made it up to a high of 63 yesterday. Current temp 36

Its a shame things have dried up for late week, we could really use the rain. We could be headed towards a "3 H" summer here with light precipitation amounts until tropical season really kicks into gear in August. We'll see

I agree although I am not buying the snowfall accumulations the GFS is spitting out. While certainly not impossible it is highly unlikely IMO.

I am not sure I buy things being that dry late week even though the GFS is currently showing the same. We'll see.

The GFS keeping things dry for late week is crap IMO and will most likely become wetter as we move closer. Edit: The Euro is also showing the same but I am still not sure I buy it being that dry. We'll see.

High for the day was 62 here. Current temp 50

High for the day was 62 here. Current temp 50

Nice day today. Current temp 55

Nice day today. Current temp 55

I believe it was postponed due to the severe weather outbreak earlier in the week. Someone correct me if I am wrong.

NWS Mt. Holly actually mentioned the possibility for the first severe weather of the season in their discussion this morning.

Agreed. I consider April/October to usually be the most boring weather months of the year.