Rtd208

That's what she said.

Current temp is down to 48 here.

Current temp is down to 48 here.

The Euro is pretty wet for next week.

That is the most erect dropsonde reading ever.

I can honestly see it being pretty quiet weather wise over the next couple of weeks outside of a couple of minor events and anything tropical that could impact us. We'll see.

A hurricane?

Picked up 1.22" of rain for the day yesterday. 0.40" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.62"

Picked up 1.22" of rain for the day yesterday. 0.40" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.62"

Picked up 1.22" of rain for the day yesterday. 0.40" of rain so far today. Storm total 1.62"

Picked up 1.04" of rain so far today.

Picked up 1.04" of rain so far today.

Picked up 1.04" of rain so far today.

Wind fairly gusty here this morning. Also the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day over northern MD near the PA border. I still like a 1-3" rainfall for the NYC metro, also watch for severe later this afternoon/evening which could produce a few tornadoes.

I think the SPC may upgrade our area to a slight risk when the new day 1 comes out overnight. We'll see.

...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic... Although there remains substantive spread within/among the various model output, 30-50+ kt southerly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may linger into the day Thursday across much of the northern Mid Atlantic region, generally coincident with the corridor of seasonably moist boundary-layer air. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, weak to moderate CAPE may still develop and contribute to scattered thunderstorm activity with daytime heating. In the presence of moderate to strong shear in the lower to mid-levels, the environment may become conducive to organizing lines or clusters with the potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts. Latest guidance appears increasingly suggestive that hodographs could become characterized by substantial clockwise-curvature in low levels, particularly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into south central and southeastern New York state, which may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic... Although there remains substantive spread within/among the various model output, 30-50+ kt southerly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may linger into the day Thursday across much of the northern Mid Atlantic region, generally coincident with the corridor of seasonably moist boundary-layer air. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to remain weak, weak to moderate CAPE may still develop and contribute to scattered thunderstorm activity with daytime heating. In the presence of moderate to strong shear in the lower to mid-levels, the environment may become conducive to organizing lines or clusters with the potential to produce locally damaging wind gusts. Latest guidance appears increasingly suggestive that hodographs could become characterized by substantial clockwise-curvature in low levels, particularly across parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into south central and southeastern New York state, which may support a risk for a couple of tornadoes.

Saturday should be OK. Maybe a lingering shower in the morning?? The main activity will be later Thursday into Friday as you noted. I think a 1-3" rainfall w/embedded thunderstorms is still on the table.

The GFS is still a bit to progressive IMO although it has slowed from earlier runs. I also expect the models to come in a bit wetter as we get closer.

While the Euro does have a bit of a slow bias versus the GFS being to progressive at times this does increase the likelihood of heavy rain IMO.

The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all.

I think @wdrag may have to start a storm specific thread in the next day or two for the late week event.