Rtd208

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Forecast models in full on winter mode. Bring on the agony and despair. 

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unpredictable weather??

 Good god can we please stop naming winter storms.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I can't remember a stretch where almost every weekend had precip on at least one day....

Don't worry come December it wil be sunny and 65. 

Overnight low of 45 here.

Fall in full swing.

Overnight low of 45 here.

Fall in full swing.

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is a solid 18-24” next weekend.

That's what she said. 

6 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Rainfall rate in that band in Sussex County over 1.3/hour.  Here at home about .65 in the last 1.5 hours. So it is raining and I saw a CH4 news flood extraction in ne NJ earlier this morning so it is raining hard in spots. 

Heavy rainfall delayed but not denied? It looks like the radar is starting to fill in a bit. We'll see.

10 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Seems every event lately is a now casting event?  I no longer have the skill or courage to make an educated guess, but I'm sure others out there (including our forum) which can make a rational call.  In my day, we had very little tools; LFM, Baroclinic, MOS outputs.  However, I agree with this event that the max hot spots will be next to impossible to pinpoint.

I can only imagine what the news headlines will be for areas that experience the heaviest rain/flooding. The public and some news media will be pointing fingers once again like last weekend.

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

This is also day 1 until 12z tomorrow.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see how this plays out overnight and thru tomorrow afternoon. Definiately a nowcasting event for sure. Flood Watches issued just to my north and east in Union County/Staten Island but as per some of the modeling I can see portions of Middlesex, Somerset and Monmouth Counties NJ also getting in on some of the heavy possibly exsessive rainfall. We'll see.

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Beer on the delmarva

Cocaine coast??

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While I loved living in Long Beach, they were always having mismanagement issues that lead to tax increases. They have been having some big financial struggles since Sandy. The locals aren’t happy that they are planning a very large ocean front condo and apartment complex. They are worried about more tax increases and stress on the infrastructure. Just too much development packed onto a very small island. 

I agree. These days it seems like they will stick a new apartment building wherever they can. It's happening all over.

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Lido Dunes section near the famous Marvel ice cream stand to the Mushrooms had the best Dune protection and it served them very well. Most people have two story houses with the ocean view from their upstairs. That is a good compromise. Those are some of the most sought after homes on the entire barrier island. Long Beach had very small dunes that got flattened by Sandy with the houses immediately behind them suffering major damage. Long Beach is still having problems with their infrastructure after Sandy. Had some friends tell me that they went to a restaurant about a week ago in Long Beach and their were issues with sewer back ups and bad smells outside the restaurant. Also spoke to a few business owners in the years after Sandy and said they were continuing to have issues with toilets not flushing very well and having to call the city for assistance. 

Wow thats crazy. Over a decade since Sandy hit and there are still issues. That's honestly sad. Blame it on politics and red tape.

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I can remember all the back and forth about what to do about erosion from my days living in Long Beach. They had proposals before Hurricane Sandy to build higher dunes. But many people near the beach didn’t want the dunes obstructing their view of the ocean. So they kicked the can for years and finally did the new dunes after Sandy. There was a section in Lido Beach with very high dunes that did very well. The people just got used to not being able to see the ocean from their first floors. But the section of Lido Beach with low dunes and better views around the Lido Towers suffered heavy damage from the waves pounding the first floor and knocking out walls.

Its a double edged sword, the residents pay big money for those views and to live where they live but the trade off is your more vunerable. I guess I undertand both sides of it. If I am going to pay that kind of money I think I would rather lose the view from the 1st floor then lose my house. To each their own.

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the Army Corps will have to return to places like Fire Island to repair the dunes. Very risky in this era of more extreme weather to build right on the dunes like that.

 

 

Gotta love the finger pointing, just fix the damn thing. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Beautiful in Long Beach, smoke cleared out thankfully. A COC day as they put it in the New England forum. The beach took a rough hit and possibly more to come @wdrag 

35 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Maybe bluewave or someone else with more energy than I would like to post how often are our weekends (Sat-Sun filled with 1" or greater rain since late June?  Note sure the easiest way to track it, but you all are probably more up on this than I. 

As you know, I've had to give up on the subtropical transition early this week as the reflux storm has tracked more se than South.  However, I'm still interested in next weekend here and the following as well (7-8, 14-15). Both seem to have some sort of storminess here... whether it ends up just a 1/4-3/4" CFP, or something a little bigger with a coastal low... still tbd but I'm not done looking off the se coast for a little development later this week and northward ingest Saturday.  

 

The EPS right now lags the ever amplifying GEFS into the eastern USA next Fri-Saturday.  If its flatter, then just a windy cfp. If not, then gets a little more interesting fort a possible 1-3" event.  Too early for me.

59 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

Just as an additional comment to my post above. If he is implying at this point it will be a warmer and snowless winter in the E US then he is no better then the ones he is posting about.

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

October could be stormy after the first week with first taste Fri/Sat. 

Also a non-zero chance we get some tropical influence from Philippe if the track shifts west. 

But +PNA/-NAO and AO trending negative are stormy indicators. 

Hopefully we get some good nor'easters cranking. We'll see.

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

They don't listen or pay attention to things like flash flood watch. Also what difference would it have made? You can't stop the subways from flooding or be able to predict such an occurrence 

Part of the problem is what I mentioned in one of my previous posts about declaring a State of Emergency. Now in this particular case I think it was eventually a good call for the city and areas of SE NY State that were hit hard by the storm but not so much for NJ. The public does not take weather advisories and especially watches and warnings seriously anymore but part of that is because SOE's are being issued for 6-10" snowstorms which is ridiculous unless say the storm is expected to hit coastal communities hard with coastal flooding etc. Then you an SOE should be delcared for the counties that would be impacted the hardest. 

For snow accumulations I don't think an SOE should even be considered unless the storm is expected to produce at least produce 12"+ of snowfall. The public not paying attention to watches and warnings etc. will continue to always be a dilemma for the weather and emergency management community IMO.

@wdrag New Yorkers angry at the lack of storm notice?? 

It seems like with every storm we always see the same thing "The public is angry about lack of storm notice"

Maybe its just the news media throwing fuel on the fire who knows.

1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

So a State of Emergency was put into effect for the entire state of New Jersey yesterday afternoon, after the heaviest of rains were over, which only affected the eastern most counties?  Couldn't any simpleton declare that?

Its all about getting federal money for recovery. They issue SOE's when there is a stiff breeze these days, its ridiculous. I mean they are even issuing them for 6-10" snow storms, they never did that years ago. Its getting out of hand IMO. Issue a State of Emergency when its truly needed, no wonder why the public doesn't take it seriously.

Have to see if we pick up an additional rainfall today.

Storm total so far since Thursday 2.43"

Have to see if we pick up an additional rainfall today.

Storm total so far 2.43"