Rtd208

7 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Link?

Its sent via an email group. You have to subscribe to receive it.

Read Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter tonight, in the final paragraph his the long range section he doesn't seem to be to excited about a big winter along the Eastern Seaboard but did say it it would be less "non-wintry" then last year. Something tells me when he releases his winter outlook it may be rather disappointing for our area and if I recall correctly his call for last winter was pretty good. But we will see.

Cliff jumpers warming up early this year.

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

3rd warm winter in a row if the new Euro and JMA seasonal are correct.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

Lets hope not, good thing its still fairly early. It would be something if it happened, very persistent pattern.

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Is there any chance that as we get closer to the event and the models ingest better data, we could see a "north trend" for the eclipse?

Seasonal trend says wagons south.

Looks like we are going to see showers and thunderstorms at some point leading into the July 4th holiday.

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember exactly where I was the first time I heard it.  I went west (California) for a job interview and I heard it in the rental car radio on the way from LAX to the hotel.   I believe it was around 7/10/76.   It turned out to be a fateful interview because I ended up going setting in motion 15 years if missed winters including the blizzard of '78.  That said, what happpened in those 15 years helped set the stage for a return and some nice late career success.

I was only 1 years old when "Dream Weaver" was released, but always cried when it was on the radio, of course as I got older the crying stopped but I still hate the song to this day. Thank god it is rarely played on the radio.

9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

 

This song seems to be showing up everywhere lately, lol. Its almost as bad as Gary Wright's "Dream Weaver", god I hate that song.

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's a hot look.We pray for backdoors.

Just thought I would play the devils advocate and post DT's thoughts on the 0z Op GFS.

https://www.facebook.com/WxRisk/posts/1290308717683050?notif_t=notify_me_page&notif_id=1489006936103079

DT says winter is basically over in his This Week in Weather video. He mentions maybe..maybe some winter weather in mid to late March if the mjo swings around into a more favorable position again but honestly by then who cares. I am really not a big fan of any wintry weather after the first ten days of March unless it is an extreme event i.e Superstorm of 93 or if we have a very cold air mass in place.

Looks like even Larry Cosgrove is going to go down in flames on this month, he always thought February was going to be the coldest and stormiest month of the winter. His weekly newsletters from the last couple of weekends seemed pretty positive on a good February, curious to see what he says in this weekends newsletter. 

According to Steve D. "the pattern should remain active and on the cold side until mid February then Spring is on the way". The way this winter has gone and how the models have handled things even in the shorter ranges I am taking everything with a grain of salt. I will laugh if we wind up seeing our biggest snowfall of the winter on March 1st.

1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

From JB at WB this AM after viewing the Euro his headline is "Snow more luck than the pattern thru January 15th"

"The Euro Day 15 is as bad is it gets for eastern cold.. That does not mean it can not snow, but this is as big and anti log to a cold pattern as you can find. We believe ideas that this could return before mid month are likely too fast.The payoff on the other side may make people by the end of January wonder how it could flip that much , but I am not going to get caught rushing it in as per usual bias. I do believe it will return"

And tomorrow he will probably say the complete opposite. I used to like JB but sometimes I think he says what he says to make himself popular or have something to talk about instead of the science of weather and meteorology. JMHO

Judah Cohen 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/22/judah-cohen-winter-outlook-cold-for-eastern-u-s-snowy-in-washington/

Judah Cohen 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/22/judah-cohen-winter-outlook-cold-for-eastern-u-s-snowy-in-washington/

DT (WxRisk) 2016-2017 Winter Forecast

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalshort.pdf

DT (WxRisk) 2016-2017 Winter Forecast 

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/finalshort.pdf

Just now, Morris said:

From Earthlight

 

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2016/11/07/winterforecast1617/

Its restricted to members only, not able to view. Have to wait until its released for public viewing.

EPAWA's 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

http://epawaweather.com/2016/11/02/epawa-2016-2017-winter-outlook/

Just now, PB GFI said:

 

Hat tip to Isotherm .

NJ  state 2002 snow map 

His snowfall amounts seems to be based around the drought conditions in our area over the last several months which could continue into the winter, he did say if drought conditions ease those amounts could be higher. Only time will tell.

Joe Cioffi's 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/11/01/winter-2016-2017-new-jersey-forecast/

Joe Cioffi's 2016-2017 Winter Outlook

http://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/index.php/2016/11/01/winter-2016-2017-new-jersey-forecast/

Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw

Larry Cosgrove released his outlook for winter 2016-2017 and its not good if you like cold and snow although confidence levels are not particularly high. He is also going with a very warm December which seems to contradict most outlooks.

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/PeySp4BFjEA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/bBiWzmLaLSA

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/gbv3LItS4Yo

https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en-US#!topic/weatheramerica/udrthzDZ-Dw