ncforecaster89

The mesoscale (short range) models are the primary source at this point. However, the globals still have value in helping determining the track of the coastal low.

It’s a direct consequence of the more eastward track and finding ourselves in the strong subsidence zone, while the more inland areas are in the deformation zone. There’s always going to be winners and losers in these type of setups…with a coastal low that’s bombing. In this particular run/solution, we are the undisputed losers. But like Josh noted, it’s still too early to pinpoint the precise location of these dynamics.

You’re correct in that the NAM is more prone to exaggerated dry slots than the globals (such as the ECMWF and GFS). Even so, the physics still apply and is a definite cause for concern. It was also seen on the 18Z ECMWF, as well. In both cases, the dry slot was directly over my house!

In simplest terms, it’s the result of the coastal low tracking farther offshore as it’s undergoing bombogenesis…where the deformation zone is positioned more to the north/northeast, favoring central/eastern NC and SE VA with high totals (10-20+ inches along the coast and inland). However, this setup allows dry mid/upper-level air to wrap cyclonically around the low's southwestern/southern flank from the southwest, creating a pronounced dry slot that intrudes into SE NC. The worst part of this particular scenario is that the dry air wraps in during the peak precip phase, leading to an abrupt transition from heavy bands (e.g., near New Bern/Kitty Hawk) to much lower/no accumulations in Wilmington and other SE coastal zones. That said, this is a common feature in these explosive coastal setups, especially when the low stays a bit farther east, as shown in that 06Z 12km NAM run.

Horrible…being that I live in the “screw zone!”

How does this work for everyone? Edit: see I was late posting the map on the previous page.

My previous post is gone, so I took the time to provide a new update: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017152042779689147

For those who might be interested, here’s my latest projections for 25 select locations along the east coast: https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2017125164824100896

Wilmington has historically averaged 1.6” yearly dating back to 1870. That said, most years we see nothing, so it’s rare to even get the climatological average from one storm. The last time Wilmington saw a 6” accumulation was during the Christmas blizzard of 1989 (a little over 36 years ago)!

I’m in the “screw zone” yet again on this particular run (e.g, located just N of Wilmington, NC)

Yes.

Gotta get back to work, myself, but wishing ALL of us the best outcome, possible.

Agree. Given it’s track dependent on the coastal low and we still have a ways to go on nailing that down, it’s difficult to pinpoint where that’ll be.

Not necessarily any noticeable bay enhancement, per se, but rather simply based on my own track expectations. Full disclosure: I’m hoping that area is ground-zero for some of the highest totals as it enhances the prospects for blizzard conditions…which will lead me to document the event there, rather than remain here at my home…just N of Wilmington.

The “dry slot” results from strong sinking motion (subsidence) on the storm's western/northwestern flank (classic comma-head dry punch) wrapping drier mid-level air in from the west/southwest…which limits precip westward/inland despite good low-level moisture feed (e.g., Gulf/Atlantic wrap-in via onshore flow and warm advection). In the more offshore/eastward-biased solutions, the dry slot expands more aggressively westward, carving deeper into the interior areas…which reduces the moisture feed's ability to "blossom" widespread heavy snow farther west/inland. If the surface low hugs the coast (stronger interaction with the ULL), the dry slot narrows/weakens on the west side, allowing better moisture wrap-in from the Atlantic/Gulf and heavier, more widespread bands eastward/inland.