Solak
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Posts posted by Solak
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The 12z ECMWF continues support a wintry weather threat late next week. Overrunning wintry precip in Southeast Thursday, coastal low by Saturday with wintry weather eastern Carolinas/SE Va. 12z GFS/Canadian had no overrunning and coastal too far offshore. 12z EC keeps hope alive.
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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:
I love the enthusiasm on the main board but chasing these D10 storms is the definition of insanity. Same thing happens and people expect different results. Hey- at least it's something pretty to look at! I am 100% convinced we are getting blanked. This winter's grade is a N/A. It never showed up. I walked out my door this morning at 6:30 to 68 degrees...
Chasing D10 storms = doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result.
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Starting the morning out at 68 degrees at 7:30. Supposed to be 40 degrees colder in 48 hours.
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Yesterday was a pretty big forecast bust around here. Picked up 0.04" early in the morning, and then nothing the rest of the day or overnight.
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.02" overnight. Looking like a dryer afternoon than expected, based on current radar trends, until the front gets closer later in the day.
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Kirkwood now gusting 209 MPH! This could potentially be a new California state record wind speed if verified!
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NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) continues to support the idea of a concentrated area of heavy rain this week over North Alabama. There will be a sharp cut-off on the southern periphery, most likely somewhere around I-20. Rain amounts of 4-6 inches are possible somewhere in that 60-100 mile wide strip, and flooding issues (both flash flooding and river flooding) are likely.
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A rather chilly 26 degrees this morning.
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One of the local roads (Swift Creek Rd.) here is closed for flooding. That hasn't happened since Matthew. Impressive rise on the Neuse in Smithfield. Flood stage is 15', currently 18.3', supposed to crest at 20.3' overnight.
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3.70 yesterday. Had some insane gusts earlier this morning around 7:00 - easily 40-50mph. It's settled down a little now - the pines are whistling instead of howling.
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Adding to the above, when was the last time there such a widespread RAIN event from Florida to Maine, stretching from the mountains to the coast ---- all at the same time?
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Rain has finally made it here. Time to add to the 0.75" we had between 7-9 this morning.
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Forward progression seems to be temporarily halted at the Wake/JoCo line. Still dry here in Clayton.
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0.58" overnight,
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Temp is slowly creeping up. 70 now.
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Yeah, it's looking like it'll be quite an event. Soggy ground and any severe wind events won't be a good mix, either.
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1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:
I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead
And just like a snow map, the 12z GFS has cut the rain totals by two thirds (at least for the RAH area). 3.5" is now 1.25"
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The ever-present caveat for Thursday's potential heavy rain event...
One important, potential caveat worth mentioning is that historically, whenever you have such a strong, dynamic system digging as far south as the GOM, there is the potential to see a reduction in QPF downstream(across our latitude), due to the likelihood of organized upstream convection racing east within the axis of moderate instability (~1000 J/Kg MLCAPE) in place across the Deep South/eastern Gulf Coast region. An alternate scenario such as this has played out numerous times, and this system definitely fits into the conceptual model.
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Geez--- the 12z GFS is pushing out over 4.5" rain on Thursday!!!
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0.74" Friday. All rain.
CoCoRaHS January Monthly total 4.28"
February Observations.
in Southeastern States
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0.43" on Thursday.