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Solak

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    One More Shot: Feb 20-21 Event

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    RAH Afternoon AFD 

    With the cold front well to the south of the NC/SC border Thursday, 
central NC will remain under the influence of cold high pressure 
ridging southward into the region advecting cold air in from the 
north. This front is expected to remain south of the area as a 
coastal low develops off the SC coast Thursday aft/eve in response 
to an upper level shortwave. The proximity of this low to the NC 
coast and how much/far moisture extends to the NW will be the 
determining factor for how much snow will fall and accumulate. The 
wetter NAM/GFS solutions may be a bit too aggressive with the 
precipitation extending into central NC, while the much drier ECMWF 
solution may be more reasonable. Precipitation should start as rain, 
moving into the south during the aft/eve, which will help cool 
temperatures to the wetbulb values in the 30-32 degree range by 
Thursday night. There will likely be a period of rain mixed with 
snow, with little accumulation expected during that time. The best 
chance for snow accumulation will be if and where there is a 
transition to all snow. Regardless, there will likely be a "sweet 
spot" across eastern NC where snow could accumulate to more than an 
inch or two and a very tight gradient of snow amounts across the 
area. Given the uncertainty, will keep expected snowfall 
accumulations below warning criteria at this time, though still have 
about 1-2 inches in the Coastal Plain. Highs on Thursday will top 
out in the 40s, quickly lowering into the low 30s as rainfall 
occurs.
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    Banter Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Greg Fishel - keeping it real.:lol:

    I do not believe this upcoming late week weather event is going to be your meteorological messiah. Might we see a few flakes? Yes, but every time I venture outside you've got that so what's the big deal???

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    RAH - Sunday afternoon update. 

    By Thursday morning, we'll 
see moist WSW flow aloft beginning to overrun the cold low level 
airmass advecting into NC, thus many of the models have been 
suggesting some light precip developing to our SW and skirting at 
least our southern and southeast zones during the daytime and 
evening Thursday.  It's worth noting that the operational ECWMF has 
been shifting the precip shield further and further south with 
recent runs (given its further southward progression of the 
aforementioned cold front).  That said, if the GFS and Canadian 
verify, which suggest that precip will fall farther north than what 
the ECMWF shows, forecast soundings from these models suggest an 
opportunity for some wet snowflakes to mix in with the otherwise 
light rain over the south and southeast portions of our CWA. Clearly 
there is a great deal of uncertainty with this part of the forecast, 
so the best advice now is to stay tuned to future forecasts for 
updates, but right now we are not forecasting anything that would 
lead to substantial weather impacts for central NC later this week.
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