Solak

Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
341 PM EDT Thu May 21 2020

The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Moore County in central North Carolina...
  Southwestern Harnett County in central North Carolina...
  Northwestern Cumberland County in central North Carolina...
  Northeastern Hoke County in central North Carolina...

* Until 415 PM EDT.

* At 341 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Raeford, moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Fort Bragg and Pope AFB around 415 PM EDT.

Surprisingly dry here so far today. Currently 68, with periods of mist/drizzle. Nothing resembling a raindrop - yet.

1.65" on Wednesday. Not bad considering most of the day was just drizzle/misty.

2.33" storm total.

GFS is back up to over 6" for the RDU area for the event. Locally, we're sitting at about 0.40" so far.

0.25" yesterday, 0.04" from an Arthur sprinkle.

12z GFS is up to 6.11" for RDU this week.

Not quite the mountains, but still...

Not much convection going on with the swirl.

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=01L&product=vis

2 hours ago, wncsnow said:

Euro shows a deluge and what would be big flooding in the foothills and western piedmont 

 

That's a lot of wet!

Saw that. I'll take it, without any flooding, of course. Dust is flying around these parts. Very noticable when people are mowing, or the farmers working the fields.

31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Models have moved into two main camps overnight. Out to sea, or pulled in to the mainland by the ULL

Spann DOES have a funny bone after all

Guess it'll be a wait and see deal. Here's what RAH says today.

Thereafter, the closed low will simply linger over the Mid-Atlantic 
region through much of the mid-week period.  While it appears that 
our area may benefit from the dry slot wrapping around and into the 
closed low, the low center will be close enough that any wobble 
south may quickly result in increased rain chances for our area, so 
it appears worthwhile to keep at least low-end PoPs in the forecast 
for a good part of the midweek period.  

Trending dryer and dryer here in central NC. GFS has gone from over 3.5" to less than a half inch now in the past 3 runs. The cutoff isn't looking as potent and is more open (IMO), and is further displaced to the N over VA

It's been dry here. No precip in the last 7 days.

Recon tentatively scheduled for Friday.

2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Wonky

 

Yeah, the models have been showing a cutoff low on the heels of the 'tropical' system next week.

Made it down to 36 last night. Glad this is the end of it.

Only got down to 35 last night. No frost evident.

0.04" last evening. 39 degrees this morning.

Another chilly morning - 40 degrees. Hard to believe all that mess just to our West is only going to give central NC so little rain later today.

There is a chance of showers in the NW Piedmont today, with the
chance finally spreading east through the entire area later this
afternoon into the evening. Likely POP in the NW, but low QPF (less
than 0.10 expected). Elsewhere, only trace to a few hundredths
expected with 30-40 POP for 0.01 (measurable rain).

Made it down to 39 at the house this morning. Brrrrr!

Seeing some pink and blue returns from the south central mtns. Any ground truth?